Why the Lions have a 16-point advantage against the Wallabies

Australian rugby has had 12 years to prepare for this series against the Lions after the Wallabies were beaten 41-16 in Sydney in 2013, yet the sense is the first Test has arrived with the Wallabies under-prepared.

The loss of Rob Valetini to a calf injury is an awful blow, and when the teams were announced on Thursday the heat immediately went on the Wallabies pack.

They are clearly going to be targeted by a big Lions side, a strategy that coach Andy Farrell has for the most part disguised during the tour games that have featured a lot of ball movement.

Here is how the two teams match up for the first Test in Brisbane.

Wallabies

The full Wallabies squad.Credit: Getty Images

15. Tom Wright: Had a wobbly Test against Fiji in Newcastle, but fullback is one area where the Wallabies may have an edge. Rating: 8

14. Max Jorgensen: An interesting switch from the left wing, if this is where the jet-heeled Waratah lines up. Does Joe Schmidt sense an opportunity against the bigger but slower James Lowe? Rating: 8

13. Joseph-Aukuso Suaalii: I’ve been converted by the convert, and the Wallabies are trying to lay a trap for the Lions rush defence by using Suaalii’s quick hands. Discipline is still a worry, though. Rating: 7

Joseph-Aukuso Suaalii in action against Fiji.Credit: Getty Images

12. Len Ikitau: One of the best midfielders in the world, so the hope is the Wallabies use him more than as a battering ram. Rating: 8

11. Harry Potter: Will have his hands full against Tommy Freeman, and may have been picked due to his ability under the high ball. Rating: 6

10. Tom Lynagh: Has a calm head, but this is an enormous step up for a 22-year-old in his first Wallabies start. A concern. Rating: 6

9. Jake Gordon: The 32-year-old is a proven performer, but has no form to speak of and Ryan Lonergan’s excellent game for the Brumbies against the Lions has put the spotlight on the Wallabies’ selections at No. 9. Rating: 7

8. Harry Wilson: Loved his toughness and mentality to literally drag his side across the line against Fiji, but probably needs an all-time performance in Brisbane. Rating: 7

7. Fraser McReight: Form hasn’t been as good compared to last year, when he was arguably the best player in Super Rugby Pacific. The Wallabies need him to find that top gear. Rating: 8

Nick Champion de Crespigny is the bolter in the Wallabies team to play the Lions on Saturday.Credit: Getty Images

6. Nick Champion de Crespigny: As tough as they come, but a questionable selection ahead of Tom Hooper. Rating: 6

5. Nick Frost: The tallest man on the field needs to get up and challenge the Lions at lineout time, an area where he caused so much disruption during Super Rugby Pacific. Rating: 7

4. Jeremy Williams: His work rate is exceptional, but the suspicion is that the Lions have the upper hand in power through the scrum and through contact. Rating: 6

3. Allan Alaalatoa: A mixed Test against Fiji from a scrummaging perspective, and will be attacked by the Lions. Probably the most important player on the field because if the Wallabies can’t hold the scrum the Lions will feed off it. Rating: 7

2. Matt Faessler: Underdone after an injury-affected Reds campaign. Highly capable at Super Rugby level, but rival hooker Dan Sheehan is a bigger body. Rating: 6

1. James Slipper: Another contentious selection. Is Angus Bell carrying a niggle? Easily one of the toughest Wallabies of the professional era, but this is a big ask of a 36-year-old. Rating: 6

Replacements: Billy Pollard 7, Angus Bell 8, Tom Robertson 6, Tom Hooper 7, Carlo Tizzano 6, Tate McDermott 7, Ben Donaldson 6, Andrew Kellaway 6

Wallabies total: 156 (average 6.8 a player)

British and Irish Lions

British and Irish Lions captain Maro Itoje.Credit: Getty Images

15. Hugo Keenan: A class act, but is in the team due to injuries to others, and his form isn’t where it was a few years ago. Rating: 7

14. Tommy Freeman: One of the outstanding athletes in the Lions squad. Big, tall, strong and a proven Test finisher for England. Rating: 7

13. Huw Jones: Arguably the most impressive back on tour so far. Jones has played his way into the Test side and his sheer size will pose problems. Rating: 8

12. Sione Tuipulotu: Must have been a close selection call ahead of Bundee Aki, and has arguably been helped by the form of his Scotland partner Jones. Looked dangerous with ball in hand against the Waratahs. Rating: 7

Sione Tuipulotu trains with the British and Irish Lions.Credit: Getty Images

11. James Lowe: Has the ability to break your heart in numerous ways, not least with his big left boot. New Zealand Rugby was wrong to let him go. Rating: 8

10. Finn Russell: The Scot is flying and has arrived in Australia full of confidence after guiding Bath to the Premiership title. Has been putting himself about in defence, too. Rating: 9

9. Jamison Gibson-Park: Will set the tempo for the Lions attack, and possibly has been holding something back for the first Test in terms of his running game. One of the world’s best when in top form. Rating: 8

8. Jack Conan: There is no doubt the Lions lost something when Ireland’s Caelan Doris was ruled out with injury. Conan has been solid so far, but he’s a big man and his selection points to a brutal Lions game plan. Rating: 7

7. Tom Curry: Tough openside never plays with anything but total commitment and is a menace at the breakdown. Rating: 8

6. Tadhg Beirne: On his day he’s one of the world’s best, but his form on this tour has been underwhelming by his standards. Needs a big Test to justify selection. Rating: 6

Tadhg Beirne against the AUNZ XI in Adelaide.Credit: Getty Images

5. Joe McCarthy: Powerhouse second-rower has been selected to drive home where the Lions believe they have the clearest advantage – up front. Rating: 7

4. Maro Itoje: Impressive England captain is one of those players who can impose himself on a Test due to the strength of his all-round game. Rating: 8

3. Tadhg Furlong: The veteran has improved vastly since his first outing against Argentina before the tour proper got under way. Was underdone then but looks determined to make a scrum statement now. Rating: 8

2. Dan Sheehan: A world-class hooker who can do it all. Watch out for him hugging the touchline to show his athleticism. Rating: 9

1. Ellis Genge: Made a name for himself as a powerful ball carrier, but his scrummaging has improved markedly in recent years. Rating: 7

Replacements: Ronan Kelleher 6, Andrew Porter 8, Will Stuart 7, Ollie Chessum 8, Ben Earl 7, Alex Mitchell 7, Marcus Smith 7, Bundee Aki 8

Lions total: 172 (average 7.5 a player).

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