Data bump: Comparing Schmidt’s first month with the Wallabies and the Eddie era

In many ways, it’s difficult to make comparisons between Eddie Jones and Joe Schmidt.

One is a flamboyant showman happiest in front of a bank of cameras, lobbing up one-liners, bold predictions and occasional blow-ups, all carefully designed for a target audience. The other is a taciturn Kiwi whose idea – before joining the Wallabies – of speaking to the media was some supplied quotes in a press release.

One is a supreme ruler as head coach, guided by gut-feel. The other makes decisions in congress with his assistant coaches, usually following the data.

But as the most recent coaches, both Jones and Schmidt have both had their hands on the Wallabies – and mostly the same player pool – and it’s here where comparisons can be made. Or start to be made, at least.

The Wallabies will play their fourth game under Schmidt on Saturday in Brisbane, after a three-match series in July. Like Jones, Schmidt made multiple changes throughout and even fielded three different captains.

But the Wallabies won all three games, which is the first of many statistical improvements seen under Schmidt.

Jones lost five games before winning (and finished with a 2-7 record) although it’s not apples and apples, given Schmidt’s team faced sides ranked below them in Wales and Georgia, and Jones went straight into a Rugby Championship.

But via the figures of Stan Sport’s stats guru Kate Lorimer, a clearer picture of the Wallabies’ early improvement in the first three games under Schmidt can be gleaned when compared to the Wallabies’ four-match stretch at the Rugby World Cup. They were the last four under Jones.

Eddie Jones looks on at Wallabies training in France at the Rugby World Cup.Credit: Getty

In attack, the Wallabies scored 13 tries in three Tests in July, compared to 11 in total at the World Cup. That averages out at 4.3 tries a game, up from 2.8 tries in France. Interestingly, forwards have scored most tries under Schmidt, whereas the majority was scored by backs for Jones.

The lineout is still the dominant launchpad for tries – 79 per cent at the RWC and 61 per cent in July – but Schmidt’s Wallabies have been more surgical, scoring 69 per cent tries in three phases or fewer, compared to 45 per cent under Jones.

The fact the Wallabies’ lineout has been excellent under new coach Geoff Parling in 2024 helps; with a win rate of 93 per cent compared to 86 per cent last year. Lineout steals are down slightly from the World Cup, but the lineout strength is tallied with a flawless record under scrum guru Mike Cron – the Wallabies have won 100 per cent of their own feed, compared to 88 per cent last year.

The Springboks will challenge the Wallabies’ set-piece enormously on Saturday, however, with Taniela Tupou missing. Jones didn’t have the benefit of Tupou either, after he played just one of four games at the World Cup.

Discipline has been a big problem for the Wallabies for years, regardless of the coach. The Wallabies conceded an average of 11 penalties per game in July, and it was 12 per game at the World Cup. Discipline is a consequence of pressure – both applying it and dealing with it – but Schmidt will be aiming to bring the penalty count to well under 10 per game, as he did with Ireland.

In defence, the Wallabies were miles better in July than the Rugby World Cup, with an 89 tackle completion rate, compared to 74 per cent at the World Cup. Wales pumped the Wallabies 40-6 in Lyon but could only score a solitary penalty try in Sydney in the first Test.

Joe Schmidt rugged up for Wallabies training in Melbourne.Credit: Getty Images

The way the Wallabies are conceding tries has changed, though. All but one of the tries at the World Cup came via set piece possession, but 44 per cent of tries came in unstructured play in July, from turnovers and kick-return.

It’s early days, and comparisons are still difficult given the still-shifting sands of Jones’ demise and Schmidt’s arrival. Jones had effectively thrown away any structure in the Wallabies’ game plan, and constantly changed his teams. Schmidt has brought the structure back, but has also made massive team changes each week – and picked many of the players Jones had discarded.

Jones had five players at the World Cup under the Giteau Law, but Schmidt used none in July.

Compared to the chaotic last weeks of Jones, though, there is clearly greater clarity around Schmidt’s plan, according to former Wallaby and Stan Sport expert Morgan Turinui.

“In terms of the difference between the Eddie era and Joe, it looks to me there is some real detail and accountability around their play now,” Turinui said.

“Eddie was trying a style where it was, ‘Look, we are not giving you too much instruction, you can play what’s in front of you, wingers have a free licence’. It was a playing, in a way, that is admirable but it takes time and it takes experience and patience. Which is everything they didn’t have last year.

Fraser McReight was outstanding in the July Tests.Credit: Getty Images

“With Joe, often the best thing about a new coach is if they’re very different, good or bad, that something different sparks something in players. There is a huge amount of detail and accountability in things like how they’re carrying, who they’re carrying with, how they work at the breakdown. They’re looking at contestable, short-kicking options, to manipulate defences, and that hasn’t been a huge part of the Australian game.”

Compared to Jones’ eclectic coaching staff, with ex-rugby league players and a French halfback as maul coach, the Schmidt camp is stocked with veterans like the highly-regarded Laurie Fisher and Mike Cron.

“It looks more like didatic coaching. Not teacher-student but this is a Wallabies squad that is young and needs coaching,” Turinui said.

“So having the best scrum coach in the world [in Mike Cron], Laurie Fisher is a genius in his sector, JOe Schmidt is a very hands-on coach, Eoin Toolan is a smart guy, Parling has great lineout IP. So they’re getting great coaching. And the more they’re together, the better they’ll get. With a Lions series ahead, every session and every Test counts.”

Some aren’t convinced. In a podcast hot-take recently, former Springbok centre Jean de Villiers said he doubted Schmidt was the man to re-build the Wallabies because “I don’t see him changing it around”.

Wallabies captain Allan Alaalatoa shrugged off the de Villiers barb at the captain’s run by pointing to the confidence that Schmidt’s coaching has instilled in them.

“Internally, the boys have so much respect for Joe. There’s definitely a lot of clarity in our game, especially in the basics of our game,” Alaalatoa said.

“Understanding where you need to be in the field and what role you need to play. That’s been a massive step forward

Turinui says the early signs are promising but warns it will take time.

“It looks to be logical, considered, well-planned and there looks to be a clear path forward,” he said.

“It’s not a sure road – but there is confidence that the person whose hands on the steering wheel knows what the hell they’re talking about.”

Watch all the action from The Rugby Championship with every match streaming ad-free, live and on demand on Stan Sport. Round 1 kicks off Saturday, August 10 with Wallabies v South Africa (2pm AEST) and All Blacks v Argentina (4:30pm AEST).