Race-by-race preview and tips for Saturday’s meeting at Randwick

Race 1 – 11.05AM PETALUMA HANDICAP (1100 METRES)

6. Mayfair looks a likely type off his three trials. The son of Fastnet Rock has won his most recent two, both at Randwick: he began well, settled on top of the speed and gave a kick at the finish. Like that the latest of them was out to 1050m, giving him a good grounding for what will be a testing 1100m on debut with more rain forecast. Tim Clark was on board in those two trial wins, and he is with the colt first up. The Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott stable are striking at a tick above 30 per cent with their two-year-olds this season outside of black type company, and above 25 per cent overall. Mayfair has a tactical advantage over the odds-on favourite and is a much bigger price. 1. Winning Proposal is a last-start Warwick Farm winner. Being a two-time winner she again gives away weight to her rivals. 3. Brave One’s most recent trial was promising, looks a talented colt.

How to play it: Mayfair to win.

Can Pacific Ruby cause a big upset in the Winter Stakes?Credit: Getty

Race 2 – 11.40AM ROBRICK LODGE EREMEIN HANDICAP (1300 METRES)

2. Until Valhalla was more quietly ridden at Kensington last start at the midweeks and she responded by gapping her rivals. That was the Snitzel filly’s first exposure to heavy ground. She relished it. Not only was the three-length margin dominant, but she also ran time. The form through the race has been franked a number of times since. Until now, Valhalla’s best two performances have been at Kensington, but if she can repeat last start on the course proper she will win this, too. Ciaron Maher looks to have the race well cornered with stablemate 5. Lady Boss the obvious threat. This filly resumed at Canterbury on heavy ground and gave her rivals the slip having settled outside of the leader. Has a tactical advantage over Until Valhalla. 9. Art Volant’s run last Saturday was better than it reads on paper.
How to play it: Until Valhalla to win.

Race 3 – 12.15PM MIDWAY HANDICAP (1200 METRES)

1. Navy Blood gets the blinkers for the first time, loves heavy tracks and is on the seven-day back-up. It’s an appealing profile. The three-year-old colt also gets Nash Rawiller. Navy Blood was unfancied at Rosehill last week, easing late in betting, but he made a race of it. He loomed as the winner over 1300m, but his run ended and Emmadella dashed clear late. Navy Blood had nothing to take him into the race, looping the field from last and was five weeks between runs, having been freshened after disappointing at Randwick out to 1400m. A similar scenario confronts the son of Merchant Navy on Saturday from another wide gate, but he gets conditions to suit again. Another open Midway, but he is the horse to beat. 7. Rush Hour couldn’t pick his feet up in testing conditions at Rosehill first up. Punters that were forgiving of that run were nearly rewarded second up with the gelding going down narrowly behind Flightcrew. Can settle a pair closer here. 3. Cripps Tonite boxed on OK in Midway company last start, improving on his first-up showing. That puts him thereabouts again along with 4. So Good So Cool.

How to play it: Navy Blood to win.

Race 4 – 12.50PM TAB HIGHWAY HANDICAP (1200 METRES)

Training partnership Paul Messara and Leah Gavranich have won the past two Highway Handicaps they have contested, first with Rematch then with Know Thyself. Unbeaten mare 10. Clear Thinking is looking to make that three straight. The daughter of Dubawi, out of brilliant mare Sweet Idea, has made light work of her rivals at Scone in her two wins to date, justifying being sent around $1.50 and then $1.24. The latest of those was on a soft 7. The runner up from her most recent class 1 win was subsequently well held at Scone on Tuesday, but it’s the manner in which she won that has the stable talking about the Kosciuszko. 1. Tanglewood pulled up lame after failing at Randwick six weeks ago. He was too bad to be true. That was on the back of a Newcastle Highway win on a heavy track. The four-year-old has won two trials since then. He looks set to bounce back.
How to play it: Clear Thinking to win.

Race 5 – 1.25PM TASK HANDICAP (2000 METRES)

7. Strathtay carries an extra 3kg from last start at Rosehill, but it was an impressive win. Even allowing for the fact that he travelled on the fence, which was an advantage at that meeting, once the former Kiwi angled into the clear he exploded late to put 3.5 lengths on his rivals. The four-year-old was only second up there and has been given three weeks between runs. Punters can take plenty of confidence from how he ploughed through the heavy conditions clocking one of the fastest last 200m splits of the meeting. A similar track awaits the son of Preferment on Saturday and he maps to be in a similar midfield position. 6. Kapakiri is set up to improve again third up. His first-up performance behind Franz Josef and Captain Furai flagged that he had come back well. Four weeks later he darted up the fence to hit the front, but his run ended. That was just last Saturday behind two smart imports. That race should prove a strong form reference going forward. Backs up seven days later. 2. Age Of Sail found the line behind Princess Rhaenys at Eagle Farm first up. She has since won again. 3. Principessa won fifth up last campaign.

How to play it: Strathtay to win.

Race 6 – 2PM THANK YOU ATC MEMBERS HANDICAP (1100 METRES)

2. Mogo Magic zipped across to lead at Canterbury last start, gave a kick, but tired late with Jedibeel proving too strong at the finish. The four-year-old was at his top for much of the race. Want to give him the chance to bounce back and turn the tables. Gets a 1kg weight swing from that clash. Thought Mogo Magic was exceptional first up when third to The Black Cloud despite burning across to sit on the shoulder of Passeggiata. A thankless task. That was with 60.5kg on his back. The Goulburn-based sprinter is yet to see a heavy track but has handled soft going in the past and he looks well paired with Amy McLucas. Winkers go on for the first time. That’s no knock on 1. Jedibeel. He has won two from three since being gelded. Tricky gate to overcome, especially with many of his obvious threats likely to settle in the first couple. 8. One Destiny has won two of his past three himself with the miss a second to In Flight, who has won again since. Great wet-tracker and gets in with 52.5kg after the claim of Molly Bourke who knows the sprinter well. The best of 3. Tristate gives this a shake while respect form Godolphin galloper 11. Zaragoza.

How to play it: Mogo Magic to win.

Race 7 – 2.35PM RACING FOR GOOD ON JULY 13 HANDICAP (1100 METRES)

8. Wild Botanica looks ready to win. That would replicate what the mare did last campaign when scoring third up. Like what the four-year-old mare has done in two runs back. She chased home The Black Cloud first up at Randwick over 1000m before finishing third behind In Flight at Rosehill three weeks ago. She settled outside of the leader, hitting the front a long way out. She kept trying all the way to the line but was collared late. In Flight has won again since, so has the runner up, One Destiny. Back to mares grade. 1. Shezanalister has been set a task first up on a heavy track with 61kg, but went to another level last campaign, winning three straight. That’s now five wins from 13 starts. Gives every indication that there is still more to come. Trialled well twice and maps to get the right run. 5. Our Bellagio Miss was chipping into the margin at Randwick last start behind Fleetwood.
How to play it: Wild Botanica to win.

Race 8 – 3.15PM JAMES SQUIRE WINTER STAKES (1400 METRES)

Taking a punt on 12. Pacific Ruby. Her benchmark rating suggests that she is a little out of her depth on Saturday, but this isn’t a deep listed race. The other significant consideration is that there aren’t many proven heavy-trackers. She is. The mare resumed from a 40-week spell at Doomben last start and the lack of market support suggested she would need the run. Pacific Ruby wouldn’t be here if the stable didn’t think she was up to the task. This time last year she beat He’s our Bonneval and Barbie’s Fox at Sandown. 3. Iknowastar backs up after giving a sight at Eagle Farm last Saturday. He is a very fit horse now and will give a sight as he always does. Looks well suited to Nash Rawiller and the drop back to 1400m is offset by the likely testing conditions. Don’t think he loves heavy ground, but he got through it OK in The Coast at Newcastle.
How to play it: Pacific Ruby each way.

Race 9 – 3.50PM CATANACH’S JEWELLERS HANDICAP (1200 METRES)

8. Elson Boy extended the picket fence to six straight wins last start at Rosehill. The four-year-old jumps in grade again, but he won a deep race at Scone before proving too slippery for Testator Silens three weeks ago. That horse just missed himself in BM88 company on Saturday, starting $3.80. The gelding is as tough as a $2 steak, and apprentice jockey Chelsea Hillier knows the sprinter inside out: let him cruise along out in front, breaking his rivals hearts. Two of his past three wins have been on heavy tracks. The timing looks to be right to push the button and ride 7. With Your Blessing more forward. The blinkers went on third up last campaign at Kembla Grange, he led and bolted in on heavy ground. He left 5. Contemporary in his dust with four lengths back to second. 1. Bacchanalia gets a pass mark for his June Stakes effort, but he has a history of improving with a run under his belt.
How to play it: Elson Boy to win; 7-8 quinella.

Race 10 – 4.30PM TAB HANDICAP (1400 METRES)

10. Pure Alpha looks to have so much more to come. The three-year-old had every chance at the midweeks last start, camping in behind a moderate speed, but when he angled into the clear he ran right through the line to win running away. The margin flattered his rivals. More pressure and he’d have won by further. That was on a heavy track. Respect that he jumped $1.80 and that it was just his fourth career start. The barrier looks awkward on paper but he should be able to stride across to settle outside of 3. Cool Jakey. Joe Pride’s galloper improved sharply second up, just as he did last campaign. That coincided with the blinkers going back on and ridden to find the front. Another heavy track should see him hold his form. Loses Nash Rawiller, but drops 5kg after the claim of Zac Wadick.
How to play it: Pure Alpha to win.

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Full form and race replays available at racingnsw.com.au