History points to Maroons three-peat – but don’t put your glasshouse on it

After day one of the State of Origin gibberfest, it’s fair to say “bullying” will be the buzzword of choice in the lead-up to the decider at Suncorp Stadium on July 17.

So far, it’s been quite the series for bullying.

NSW tried to bully Queensland fullback Reece Walsh in game one in Sydney and it resulted in their centre, Joseph Suaalii, being sent off and suspended for a month.

In game two in Melbourne, the Blues bullied anyone wearing a maroon jumper, tackling players off the ball, pushing others in the back, and deploying the time-honoured tactic of rearranging a rival’s face in the tackle.

Liam Martin loves the fact he is hated by Queenslanders.Credit: Getty Images

That and about half-a-dozen thunderous, soul-stealing tackles that had the Maroons on the backfoot from the opening sets.

There were several reasons for the Blues’ 38-18 victory, but the forward pack’s refusal to be dominated — legal or otherwise — by their Queensland counterparts was critical.

It certainly fed the narrative NSW coach Michael Maguire wanted to establish in the lead-up about players standing up for one another.

On Monday, the great Madge was at it again, planting more seeds in Queensland counterpart Billy Slater’s greying head.

Asked about criticism that his side overstepped the line at the MCG, Maguire opted for a familiar sledge.

Blues coach Michael Maguire has planted more seeds of doubt in the mind of Queensland counterpart Billy Slater.Credit: Janie Barrett

“Glasshouses again,” he told reporters, adding: “What was nice to see was that the boys were actually sticking up for each other in the way that we wanted to play.

“There’s a fine line and that’s the stuff that we talked about, but I think the way that the players have shown they want to play is the style that NSW want to go about this.”

Slater has been too smart to engage in any tongue-fu with Maguire this series and didn’t bite on any questions about the Blues’ roughhouse tactics at a media session in Brisbane on Monday.

He talked about “football”, not aggression, being more fundamental to victory in the decider, a result that would deliver himself and his side a third series win since he took over in 2022.

But you assume a conversation will be had, if it hasn’t already, with the NRL about how the match will be officiated in the most hostile stadium in the country.

The Blues might feel like they have ascendancy following their Melbourne ambush, but how will they fare without all that possession, field position and 50-50 calls from the referee?

Matt Burton is sent to the bin during the crazy Origin decider at Suncorp Stadium in 2022.Credit: Getty Images

There are Origin matches, then there are Origin matches at Suncorp Stadium, which Slater on Monday called the “home of Origin”.

The last decider at the ground in 2022 was one of the most batshit crazy matches in history, with NSW lock Cameron Murray, Queensland winger Selwyn Cobbo and prop Lindsay Collins all knocked out and taken from the field in the first three minutes.

There were melees, shirt-pulling, aggressive cuddling and some indecipherable name-calling.

The second half started with an all-in brawl, with NSW centre Matt Burton and Maroons counterpart Dane Gagai sin-binned for fighting. Although why Burton was dispatched remains a mystery, because he was essentially defending himself while under attack from menacing Queenslanders.

In the end, the Maroons enjoyed one of their greatest victories, not least because they had been flogged in game two in Perth before Cameron Munster and Murray Taulagi were ruled out of the decider with COVID-19.

The Blues’ forward pack was dominated that night, bullied at every turn, while Slater was hailed as a modern-day coaching guru, although he finds himself under scrutiny like never before as a coach heading into this match.

Overlooking Titans gun David Fifita for the third time, instead opting for Kurt Capewell, continues to puzzle.

Billy Slater won’t go into detail on why he continues to overlook David Fifita.Credit: Getty

Some speculate there might be something more at play than Fifita’s form, something not helped by the fact that Slater won’t go into much detail about why he continues to overlook the Titans superstar.

NSW drifted in betting markets when centre Latrell Mitchell was ruled out with a foot injury, but all the pressure is on Queensland.

Sure, the Blues have won just two deciders in Brisbane — in 1994 and 2005. Queensland have won nine of the past 10 deciders there. No less than 10 members of the current squad played in the 2022 match.

But let’s not forget that the Maroons were firm favourites heading into this series, having won the past two. NSW’s culture was supposedly broken, there were question marks about Maguire’s ability in this arena and then halfback Nathan Cleary did his hamstring.

“Nothing’s guaranteed in life,” Slater said when told of his side’s recent record in deciders at home.

“Death is,” a reporter fired back.

That’s how a series loss feels to Queenslanders. What a moment awaits NSW rugby league if they can pull this heist off.

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