Attack, X-factor and experience: Why NSW will win Origin II

It might seem hard to believe after what happened in game one, but I’m really confident about NSW turning the tables in Melbourne. In fact, I think they’ll just win.

Why? For starters, it looks a much more dangerous team in attack than the one we had for the series opener in Sydney. As good as this Queensland team is, NSW still need to find points, and they should have plenty of options at the MCG.

Mitchell Moses will be crucial to how this Blues team plays. His kicking game will be the key to this match. He’s got to be able to turn around Queensland’s big forwards and put his side on the front foot. Even if it’s a bad set, he can turn it into a good one with his kicking game.

I’m intrigued to see what type of combination he forms with Jarome Luai. They wouldn’t have played a lot of football with each other and this camp needs to be flawless so they can get on the same page. Luai’s form since Nathan Cleary went down has been exemplary, and he can keep growing in the State of Origin arena.

I love Latrell Mitchell’s inclusion at left centre. It screams X-factor and, trust me, he’s the one player Queensland wouldn’t want to see lining up on the opposite side of the field. The beauty of Latrell is given his raw power and superhuman ability, you can just throw him the ball and say, ‘all yours, big unit’. He will produce for his state.

Cameron Murray’s inclusion is huge for NSW’s ability to generate quick play-the-balls, and I’m excited for Connor Watson, who can be a real threat out of dummy-half. He just can’t overthink it.

NSW Blues centre Latrell Mitchell.Credit: Getty Images

NSW had a lot of Origin inexperience in some key positions for game one, and I think the players who are still part of this squad will be better for understanding the build-up and how Origin works.

This is their game to hit back.

Origin stars of the future

One of the real highlights each year is watching the under-19s State of Origin and this year will be no exception. You can watch and earmark the next superstars of our game.

Ethan Strange burst onto the scene in this game last year playing at centre, and he’s been sensational for the Raiders at NRL level this year. I’m expecting a couple of other players to jump out of the ground at Leichhardt Oval on Thursday night.

I’ve seen bits and pieces of young halfback Mitchell Woods and I can understand why Phil Gould and the Bulldogs have such a huge opinion of him. He was chased aggressively by rugby union and AFL given his immense talent, but I’m glad he stayed with the dark side.

He’s got all the traits to be an NRL halfback. His biggest strength is his speed and running game, and he’ll take on the Queensland line whenever he can.

I’m also looking forward to seeing Brad Arthur’s son, Matt, play hooker for NSW. I’ve done some work with Brad in the past and Matt used to hang around the NRL squad when he was 14 or 15 - and he was always near the front in fitness drills.

Queensland’s X-factor will be young gun Jaxon Purdue, who made his NRL debut for the Cowboys a few weeks ago. I was speaking to Cowboys coach Todd Payten about him recently and he couldn’t have spoken more glowingly. I know he’s named at fullback for this game, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see him turn into a long-term half.

There’s always a bit of spice in this game because it will be the first time these boys will be on free-to-air TV and playing for their state.

It should be a great spectacle.

Dolphins and Storm refuse to sink

We’re almost two-thirds of the way through the NRL season and I’m still waiting for the Dolphins to crash - and crash hard. But they keep proving me wrong. It’s just not happening at the moment.

Dolphins coach Wayne Bennett.Credit: Getty Images

With the injuries to their middle forwards like Tom Flegler and Tom Gilbert, plus Jesse Bromwich being out for a period, I thought they’d be vulnerable. In fact, I gave them no chance against the Sharks last week. But they were sensational and a finals spot is on the table now.

Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow and Felise Kaufusi are big losses on Origin duty and I’m finding it difficult to see how they can keep it going against the Storm on Friday night.

Like the Dolphins, I’ve been waiting for the Storm to dip. But it just doesn’t happen. They’ve had Cameron Munster and Ryan Papenhuyzen out for long periods, and they’re still leading the competition. It comes down to coaching and they’ve totally changed the way they play.

The last two weeks they’ve conceded 28 points to Newcastle and 24 points to the Warriors. In years gone by, there would be no way they would win conceding those scores. But it’s almost all out attack now and they can rack up big scores. They’ve evolved with the trends in the game.

Papenhuyzen is a huge inclusion for this game and tilts the balance towards the Storm. Sua Fa’alogo has been a revelation at fullback, but you can tell he’s playing a bit busted and working in tandem with Papenhuyzen from the wing makes them a dangerous team.

I’m really looking forward to watching Dolphins halfback Isaiya Katoa again. I’ve had all eyes for him the last few weeks and he will be a special player. His match-up with Jahrome Hughes will be fantastic.

This contest is as much about the coaches as anything else - Bennett v Bellamy. I expect it will be close for a long time, but the Storm will flex their muscle in the end.

Joey’s tip: Storm by 8
First try-scorer: Tyran Wishart
Man of the match: Jahrome Hughes

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