By Marc McGowan
The AFL draft will be held across Wednesday and Thursday night, and promises to be one of the most compromised and unpredictable editions on record.
There are academy and father-son players scattered throughout the pointy end and right through the first and second rounds. The evenness of the player pool after the top 10 means things could get wild.
Zeke Uwland, Daniel Annable, Harry Dean and Willem Duursma will be among the hot properties in this year’s AFL national draft.Credit: Artwork: Stephen Kiprillis
But we did take a stab at where bids might come because they will have a significant impact on what happens with the impacted clubs’ subsequent selections.
Carlton are poised to trade their No.9 and 11 picks to Essendon and North Melbourne, respectively, with those clubs able to offer more attractive packages than other interested parties, including Adelaide.
The Blues will gain a bunch of picks in the 20s in return in those likely deals, plus a future second-round selection from the Roos, to ensure they can match bids on Harry Dean and Jack Ison.
Here’s the order, according to our forecast:
All signs point to Duursma becoming the third member of his family to be a first-round selection – joining Xavier (No.18 in 2018) and Zane (No.4 in 2023) – but the only one to be the No.1 pick. He is most commonly compared to Brendon Goddard for his size, positional versatility, bold but excellent kicking skills, and overhead marking. Duursma has also been likened to Hayden Young, while he considers himself a mix of Xavier and Zane.
If not: We’d be surprised. The expectation is West Coast will select Duursma before placing at least one bid on an academy or father-son prospect.
A back stress injury meant Uwland missed this year’s championships after an outstanding bottom-age campaign last year that had him pegged as the best prospect in the 2025 class. The man viewed as Errol Gulden 2.0 did not reach those heights in the limited football he played after recovering, but his football IQ is as good as anyone’s in this draft. He boasts silky skills and can run all day. Might captain the Suns one day.
If not: There has been noise for a while, which heated up during the trade period, that the Eagles might bid on Carlton father-son defender Harry Dean. They could also opt to bid on Dylan Patterson or Daniel Annable here.
This is not what the Blues were hoping, but the Eagles look poised to do it. Dean is widely rated as a top-five talent. He is one of the best key defender prospects in years, and stands out because there is a major shortage of that position in this crop. He aggressively flies for marks and spoils, reads the ball superbly, and has the athleticism, composure and skills to thrive at the top level.
If not: West Coast bid on Dylan Patterson instead, or stopped bidding and went for Cooper Duff-Tytler instead.
The Eagles have long been linked to Duff-Tytler, a talented ex-basketballer who boasts similar traits to AFL ruck stars Luke Jackson and Tom De Koning with his athleticism, leap, agility and follow-up work. He showed in a VFL appearance for Essendon, where he played predominantly as a forward, that he can impact the game in attack as well, even if that remains a query in some quarters. Should develop rapidly in an AFL environment.
If not: There is talk that Essendon would love to try to snatch West Coast’s No.2 pick after securing Carlton’s No.9, but the likeliest scenario is Duff-Tytler is heading west.
Patterson might be the most damaging and exciting player in this year’s draft. He takes the game on with his kicking and fast feet – including a nasty goose step – and sometimes tries to do too much, but showed in a VFL game against Carlton late in the season that he can rein his attacking nature in. Likened to Andrew McLeod, Patterson rejected NRL clubs’ overtures to stay on the AFL path, and could be a difference-maker for the Suns.
If not: It seems West Coast will bid on Dean after Uwland. That means the Tigers will bid on Patterson, and that is now expected to be before they pick an unattached player, but maybe they make a live pick first.
The Lions’ premiership window will never shut if kids like Annable keep popping up, after the Ashcroft brothers arrived in recent years. Annable racks up disposals, excels at stoppages and is creative by hand. There are all sorts of flattering comparisons ahead of the draft each year, and recruiters see a bit of Simon Black in Annable. Brisbane will gleefully match any bid on Annable, and would quietly be chuffed if it comes this late.
If not: The Tigers picked an unattached player first, such as Sam Cumming, Sullivan Robey or Xavier Taylor.
The consensus view is that the Tigers would not have flown to Mildura just to do their due diligence on Cumming, so expect him to head to Punt Road. A shoulder injury cut his season short, but not before he stamped himself as a top-10 pick. He is a dual-position threat who impacts the game as a deep forward with his marking ability and knack for kicking goals, or as a midfielder, where his physicality, aggression and dynamism are all ticks. There have even been Mark Ricciuto comparisons. Recruiters also like Cumming’s defensive commitment.
If not: Richmond went for Sullivan Robey or Xavier Taylor instead. Two of the three should be in yellow and black.
Robey is this year’s bolter, after many clubs hoped they could keep him a secret once he graduated from Rowville’s senior side to belatedly burst onto the scene for the Ranges mid-season. He grew about 17 centimetres in the past two years and developed physically, in equal parts owing to an impressive home gym and his dedication. First made his mark as a lead-up forward, then showed his strength and power as a midfielder.
If not: The Tigers are also strongly linked to Xavier Taylor and Sam Cumming, but are not expected to consider Sam Grlj here.
Taylor once polarised because of inconsistent decision-making and execution, including a habit for kicking into the man on the mark – but he has cleaned that up (mostly), and risen sharply on draft boards. Was best afield in the Ranges’ grand final triumph, where his intercepting skills, athleticism, versatility and competitiveness were on show. Importantly, there is confidence Taylor will stand up defensively in the AFL.
If not: Richmond picked Taylor over Sam Cumming or, more likely, Sullivan Robey, meaning one of those latter two slipped through to the Bombers.
The suspicion is the Bombers will invest in at least one midfielder after parting with Dylan Shiel, Will Setterfield and Ben Hobbs, on top of the Zach Merrett situation, Darcy Parish’s injury history, and with Elijah Tsatas still proving himself. Sharp won the Larke Medal as the best-performed player at the championships, and is a physical, competitive onballer who wins the ball in big doses.
If not: Essendon have also been linked to Sullivan Robey, Sam Cumming, Jacob Farrow, Lachy Dovaston and forward-ruck Aidan Schubert. One different move changes a lot of what comes next.
The Demons are never afraid to go against the grain, but this may depend on whether Sam Cumming or Xavier Taylor are available. This is higher than Nairn has been projected, but Melbourne have him in their sights. Nairn had a seven-goal game at the championships before demonstrating his ball-winning wares with consecutive 30-plus-disposal outings to end the season. He is a high-IQ footballer, runs all day on the wing, could develop into an inside midfielder, marks well overhead and is a neat kick.
If not: They would love Sam Cumming, Sullivan Robey or Xavier Taylor to still be on the board. Melbourne might select defender Jacob Farrow, or one of small forwards Latrelle Pickett or Lachy Dovaston.
Farrow’s draft range starts at Essendon’s picks, and he has admirers into the mid-teens, but he should be long gone by then. He is one of the best kicks in this class – which should appeal to Melbourne – makes quick decisions, impacts the game as an interceptor, and showed his agility in combine testing. Farrow has also performed well in the midfield, but is more proven down back, where he will start and possibly stay in the AFL.
If not: Small forwards Latrelle Pickett – cousin of Demon Kysaiah – or Lachy Dovaston may be considered instead, or they could look to fortify their key defensive posts for the future with Blake Thredgold.
Dovaston, who hails from the same Talent League club as Nick Watson, is the best small forward in this draft. He might lack Watson’s tricks, but still has his share, and has greater running capacity and is considered superior defensively to when the star Hawk was the same age. Dovaston kicks goals for fun (and lots of them), is consistent, has become more selfless, runs hard up and down the ground, and tested brilliantly at the combine.
If not: Essendon might go for another small forward, Latrelle Pickett, instead or add forward-ruck Aidan Schubert, who has been linked to Tullamarine throughout the year. Josh Lindsay and Sam Grlj are other options.
The Hawks have interviewed Taylor in recent days, so he is at least in their mix. His stocks increased the longer the year went after not playing at the championships, capped by his eye-catching results at the combine, where he set the fastest 20-metre sprint time and finished second for agility. Taylor puts that acceleration to great use to quickly create separation and get the ball moving forward. He can tidy up his kicking and improve defensively.
If not: Hawthorn might opt for speedster Sam Grlj or sweet-kicking defender Josh Lindsay instead.
Thredgold has been linked to North Melbourne for a while, so he might be the player they have in mind, assuming they secure Carlton’s selection. Recruiters took notice of Thredgold’s solid job last year as a bottom-ager on future Collingwood forward Charlie West. He also quelled fellow first-round prospect Mitch Marsh in this year’s SANFL under-18 grand final and dominated in the air to cap a strong finals series. He is a tad undersized but a genuine lockdown defender who is strong, athletic and competitive.
If not: The Roos might opt for forward-ruck Aidan Schubert, or whoever is still up for grabs between small forwards Lachy Dovaston or Latrelle Pickett.
As always with bids, there is a great unknown, but there is enough noise about the Giants potentially bidding, after the Swans bid on Harry Rowston around this range three years ago. The Swans academy product finished top 10 in three tests at the combine, including winning the running vertical jump. Part of Kyle’s appeal is that this was his first year in the academy, so there is serious scope for improvement. He is a good size, has a big tank and brings positional versatility.
If not: GWS will probably select from a group including Oskar Taylor, Sam Grlj or Latrelle Pickett, but they are typically tough to predict.
Melbourne star Kysaiah Pickett’s cousin has top-20 interest in what is an even crop, but there is a chance he is still up for grabs in the 20s. The Demons, Essendon and North Melbourne are other possible landing points. Pickett turns 20 in December, so he is slightly older than his draft peers, but has impressed this year with his progress at Glenelg. He is quick, elusive, capable of the mercurial, and has the cheek that the best small forwards possess.
If not: GWS might have the option of Oskar Taylor or Sam Grlj, both of whom they also like.
West Coast are expected to make a bid on Murray, who has been mentioned in top-20 calculations in recent weeks. But the Suns rate him highly and it would be a shock if they did not match a bid on him here. A foot injury meant Murray did not play at the championships, but recruiters like his athleticism and toughness, and were impressed with how diligent he was with his rehab.
If not: The Eagles may bid on another Gold Coast academy player, Beau Addinsall. They would be doing so knowing the Suns are less likely to match a bid on Addinsall.
Grlj was originally linked to Richmond, and could easily land at the Hawks or GWS. He would be difficult to pass up for the Eagles if he is still available. Grlj has speed to burn and was one of only two players to run the two-kilometre time trial quicker than six minutes at the combine. He entered top-five calculations with a superb start to the year before hitting a rough patch, but his VFL form for Richmond was excellent. Grlj could eventually become a midfielder, but will likely start at half-back.
If not: There is chatter in the industry that Gold Coast academy midfielder Beau Addinsall might attract a bid in the teens, and clubs believe the only club likely to do that would be West Coast.
Lindsay is an excellent decision-maker and arguably the best kick in the draft – the result of years of dedication honing his skills, including a strict morning routine – so this would be a good result for the Bulldogs. He has been a consistently high performer at all levels, and is viewed as a safe selection who could slot straight into a defensive role. There are varying opinions on whether Lindsay could develop into a midfielder.
If not: Sydney academy defender Lachy Carmichael is right in the frame here, and several clubs have him pencilled in as the Dogs’ selection. The Swans might not match this early if that eventuates.
Adelaide are tipped to go local, and they have kept in close touch with Marsh, who kicked the most goals at the 2025 championships. He emerged from the carnival as a top-10 contender who some thought could play other positions, but appears to have slid after a so-so end to the season. But the talent and upside are there, and Marsh would complement the likes of Riley Thilthorpe and Darcy Fogarty as a different attacking option.
If not: There will be other viable South Australian players available, such as Harley Barker, Aidan Schubert and Jevan Phillipou.
Injuries impacted the start of Ison’s season, but the Blues’ next-generation academy prospect finished strongly – and opposition recruiters took notice. Ison’s height and aerial prowess make him a candidate to fill various roles across the ground, beyond just the midfield. There is still a smallish sample size on him, but the scouting report acknowledges that he can do things others in this range cannot, so Carlton will gleefully match a bid.
If not: A bid on Ison might come later, with Fremantle a possibility. If the Cats don’t bid on Ison, they may bid on Gold Coast’s Beau Addinsall, and would be a good chance to get him. Archie Ludowyke has also been linked.
Ludowyke started the year brightly for the Dragons and the AFL Academy after long being rated the best key forward in this class. However, he had a goalless championships – which was not all his fault, as a player relying on service – before suffering a season-ending PCL injury in Metro’s win over the Allies. This would be a classic Cats play to invest in a player with good size and athleticism who launches himself at the Sherrin.
If not: There is a scenario where Geelong Falcons defender Josh Lindsay is available here, while key forward Aidan Schubert is another potential option.
Some clubs think this is too early for Williams, but if anyone makes a bid, the Dockers loom as the most likely for the speedy forward. He has all the traits to be a successful small forward at AFL level, but there is some projection here. Williams starred at the combine, placing second with a scintillating 2.89-second 20-metre sprint and also finished fourth in the agility test.
If not: Williams may still be available into the 30s. The Dockers could bid on others, or look for a different forward.
Freo are raised as a potential bidder here, and Sweid will probably receive a bid in the 20s somewhere. He recovered well from an ACL rupture that sidelined him for much of the 2024 season, and the Essendon next-generation academy prospect enjoyed a strong campaign. He is small, but that did not stop him at any of the levels he played at this year. Sweid’s toughness, competitiveness, defensive commitment, and penchant for kicking goals while playing at half-forward endeared him to scouts.
If not: Sweid’s wait will continue. The Dockers might bid on someone like Beau Addinsall or Max King instead.
There is risk with Barker, who sustained an ACL rupture playing for Sturt after earning All-Australian honours. If a club is willing to take that on board, there is so much to like about Barker’s prospects, given he was considered a top-10 smokey after his championships performance. His size, speed, endurance and skill add up to an impressive package, and he uses his running ability to get involved at both ends. There is a chance he slides.
If not: The whispers around the Dockers are that they are interested in a forward, so they might even bid on Max King or could go for Noah Hibbins-Hargreaves, and might even go for a mature-ager. Jevan Phillipou might be another option.
Greeves is linked to the Hawks by virtue of their rejected application to include him in their next-generation academy program because of his Indigenous background. He also trained with them during the pre-season through the AFL Academy. Greeves is polarising – with most queries centred on his running ability – but a contested beast who has the height and ability to also impact the game when he plays as a marking forward.
If not: Hawthorn might opt for more firepower in attack, with someone such as Aidan Schubert or Liam Hetherton, who has also been linked to them. Could they place a bid on Beau Addinsall?
The Bombers might snap up Schubert with one of their early picks, or North may already have drafted him with the pick they are expected to trade for from Carlton. His awkward ball drop and kicking style are talking points, and put some clubs off, while he measured shorter than some scouts expected. But Schubert had an outstanding championships to surge into the top-10 mix. Talls can sometimes drift, given the risks involved, but his competitiveness and endurance appeal.
If not: Winger Harley Barker is a player of interest and would be in strong consideration if he is available. Forward-ruck Louis Emmett is another option.
In a draft where many prospects are flawed or erratic, Carmichael’s ultra-consistency across several years is a big tick. The Dogs might even bid for him with their first pick, where they would have a strong chance of retaining him. Carmichael was an All-Australian at under-16 level in 2023, and earned that same honour at this year’s under-18 championships, where he was also the Allies’ MVP. Carmichael is defensively sound, but his kicking and relative lack of athleticism may keep him in this range.
If not: The Dogs might only bid on Carmichael with their first pick. If they don’t bid on him, they will likely go for a taller option instead.
It becomes really difficult to know what will happen this deep into the draft, but the Bulldogs are linked to him and another athletic ruckman, Marcus Krasnadamskis. The popular view on Emmett, who finished third in the time trial at the combine, is that he will need to develop into a key-position player at either end – but there is upside here, and he will be a back-up ruck option at worst. His draft range starts earlier than this but could be wider.
If not: Krasnadamskis is repeatedly mentioned with this Dogs selection, so don’t be surprised if it is him instead.
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