They’re flushed with Climate 200 cash and inundated with hundreds of eager volunteers hoping to help take advantage of growing disillusionment with the major parties.
But this election, the teal independent challenge goes far beyond the traditional inner-city blue-ribbon upset that saw Kate Chaney voted into power in 2022.
Teal independent for Forrest Sue Chapman.Credit: Ross Swanborough
In Forrest, surgeon Sue Chapman is trying to take advantage of the retirement of long-time MP Nola Marino to pry the South West seat from the Liberal Party, which has held it since 1972.
In Fremantle, Kate Hulett is hoping to carry over her surprise near-win at the state election to the federal seat of the same name in a bid to unseat Labor’s Josh Wilson.
In Moore, the presence of psychologist and former army reservist Nathan Barton could jumble preference flows further as Liberal Vince Connelly tries to win the seat back from incumbent Liberal-turned-independent Ian Goodenough.
Hulett, Chaney and Chapman were all “optimistic” about their chances on election night.
Redbridge director and poll analyst Kos Samaras said that optimism wasn’t misplaced, but it was likely only one of them that will be celebrating on Saturday night.
“They’re seats to watch just to see how big that vote is, but I don’t think they will have the same momentum that Chaney had in Curtin,” he said.
Forrest
Samaras said if there was a disaffected regional vote in Forrest, it would likely go to One Nation thanks to areas like urban Busselton and Bunbury.
“Margaret River, I mean, sure, I see how that part of the world would choose an independent, but Margaret River is not the entire electorate,” he said.
“I think it’s just not as advantageous for independents in seats that have got a really strong regional component to them, although the umpire is still out, we’ll just have to see on the night.”
Chapman said her independence was resonating with voters in the Liberal seat, which is held by a 4.2 per cent margin.
“I can work with anyone. I’m never in opposition, so I can always work with anyone to get the best possible outcome for this part of the world and that’s resonating,” she said.
Polling by Climate 200 earlier this year put Chapman narrowly ahead of her Liberal opponent Ben Small, but she refused to make a prediction – only that the count would likely go beyond election night.
“I’m as positive as you can be. I think that it’s always very hard to predict and of course, I’m going to be very nervous and excited on Saturday and then probably Sunday, and probably for a few days afterwards, whilst the count is being done,” she said.
Chapman has spent about $95,000 on Meta advertising in the past 90 days, while Small has spent $15,000.
Small’s ad spend was virtually nothing on Facebook until 30 days ago, suggesting the campaign identified a threat. A visit from Peter Dutton to Forrest in the early days of the campaign had some party insiders scratching their heads.
A Liberal campaign insider who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss party strategy said Small’s campaign was worried.
“It’s a nationwide phenomenon. We’re starting to lose these types of seats in rich areas that used to previously vote Liberal,” they said.
Independent candidate Kate Hulett.Credit: Mark Naglazas
Small’s camp rubbished that suggestion and said they were actually optimistic about Saturday.
Small himself said he would not take a single vote for granted.
“Nola Marino has got an incredible legacy as a hard-working member of a team that has delivered for the South West and that culminated, obviously, in the record investment in the Bunbury outer ring road,” he said.
Fremantle
With a 16.9 per cent margin, Fremantle would require a monumental swing towards Hulett for her to oust Wilson.
Samaras thinks Labor will hold on.
“I think the Labor brand in Western Australia is extremely strong. She’s going up against that, and she’s going to find that very difficult,” he said.
Hulett said her message was cutting through, even in the southern suburbs of the Fremantle electorate that didn’t vote for her in the state election.
“I feel like it’s a really great time to be an independent and challenging the major parties because everyone is sick to death of them and their ineffective ways,” she said.
“I know that the Labor Party use that phrase, ‘protest vote’. I think that’s a little bit dismissive of people who are given another option, and then they like what they see.”
Curtin
Both Chaney and her Liberal opponent Tom White have no idea who will win on Saturday.
Chaney said regardless of the result, the independent movement was not one that was going away.
“I think communities all over Australia have been really excited about the idea of being represented by someone who answers to them, not to a party, and that’s an idea that will catch on,” she said.
“That’s not something that’s going to go away suddenly, no matter how much the major parties would like that to be the case, it’s a long-term trend of declining primary support for the majors.
“Neither party has done anything to reverse that.”
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