Without dumping its cult of has-been leaders, Victoria’s Liberals don’t stand a chance

Two leadership contests are taking place right now in centre-right political parties, on opposite sides of the world. One will be decided by thousands of party members in November, the other by a handful of MPs as early as mid-October, according to some reports.

In Britain, the Tories are working methodically through an organised and agreed process to select a new leader following their crushing defeat in the July general election. I have just been to the Conservative Party conference in Birmingham, and the importance each leadership contender places on directing their message at the membership – as importantly as wooing colleagues – should not be underestimated.

Victorian Opposition Leader John Pesutto and former Liberal premiers Ted Baillieu, Denis Napthine, and Jeff Kennett. Credit: Artwork: Marija Ercegovac

In Victoria, the Liberals, following the unnecessary spectacle in the Federal Court, could vote for a new leader within the fortnight.

Having moved the spill motion that led to Matthew Guy and David Southwick being elected leader and deputy, I know something of these matters. In hindsight, it wasn’t the smartest move, as they both performed poorly. Remarkably, Southwick is still there, but he shouldn’t be. Aside from the revelation that he secretly recorded his colleagues, he has not done the work on state policy issues to justify remaining in the role.

Unlike the Tories, no party volunteer will have a say over the Victorian leadership, but there are influential party heavyweights who always insert themselves into the quagmire. Moira Deeming’s defamation case against John Pesutto has reaffirmed that Jeff Kennett and others formerly in prominent positions within the party are meddling in the background and, incredibly, they are still being listened to by some. It’s time they weren’t.

Kennett, who last contested an election when I was in school, has been the most outspoken, calling MPs supporting Deeming “disloyal, and perhaps even treacherous”, while threatening their preselections. It’s extraordinary.

In 2021, Kennett was at us for months to remove Michael O’Brien. This is a man who rolled Alan Brown in 1991 while he was miles ahead of Joan Kirner in the polls. I fear Kennett has a very short memory.

Aside from a couple of notable exceptions, the silence from the women within the parliamentary party has been deafening against the old blokes whose feathers Deeming clearly ruffled. To her great credit, Peta Credlin has been vocal in her support of Deeming.

It’s so clear to me that this issue has ended up in court because of Pesutto’s desire to be seen as a strong leader. I have grave suspicions he will have been told by Kennett – and possibly others – that to compromise would be a sign of weakness. Under cross-examination, Pesutto admitted sharing with Kennett the confidential details of failed negotiations with Deeming.

Yes, a handful of elites is controlling the Liberal Party in Victoria. Instead of listening to these characters, I would encourage MPs to reflect on the views of their branch members, supporters and voters regarding the future of the party.

After barely four years in government this century, something needs to change within the Victorian Liberal Party, starting with the way the leadership is decided. After watching the Tories, I now appreciate their structured approach to electing a new leader.

In my view, the Victorian Liberals should adopt a version of their formula. Rather than allowing the cult of has-been leaders such as Napthine, Baillieu and Kennett – who are all donating to Pesutto’s litigation fund – to rule the roost, a ballot by a much larger number of voters would dilute the influence of the old guard. It might also force the parliamentary leadership to have a genuine point of difference with the Labor Party.

I am always amazed by the plethora of excuses used to explain the party’s electoral failures over the past two decades. Victorian Liberal MPs are convinced the state is so different to the rest of Australia. But I can tell you: wherever you are in the English-speaking world, politics is all relatively similar.

What voters want to see and hear from the opposition is basic competence. Broadly speaking, they also want to know what you stand for. The Victorian Liberals have failed to show these attributes for years – that’s why they continue to lose.

The Tories are on the road back to uniting behind a soon-to-be-elected new leader who will represent mainstream conservative values. The federal Coalition stands in stark difference to their Victorian colleagues, firstly because they are united behind Peter Dutton, and also because Dutton has shown genuinely strong leadership through his opposition to the Voice, and his plans for nuclear energy. We all know he is not attempting to be a pale imitation of the Albanese government.

Victoria is the economic basket case of Australia, with debt and deficits projected for years to come. Whoever the Victorian Liberals choose as their leader, this time it really matters.

The person chosen as the next leader of the opposition in Victoria is ultimately a matter for the 30 people who sit in the party room. If Pesutto does remain, he needs the courage to announce a clear vision for Victoria and attack Labor – not the conservative wing of his own party.

If it is someone else, I hope they have been doing the policy work, so that when they front their first media conference, they have clear points of policy difference from the government. That will give the Liberal Party an opportunity to move on from the absurdity of recent weeks towards a much better 2025.

Tim Smith is the former Liberal MP for Kew.

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