How Liberal mistakes are driving the Greens and Nationals’ succession plans

The departure of Daniel Andrews and a rare reprieve from leadership speculation granted to John Pesutto has done little to quell broader leadership chatter on Spring Street.

With the two major parties in a rare moment of stability, the focus has now turned to the Greens and the Nationals, and who will take over when the current leadership teams move on.

Victorian Greens leader Samantha Ratnam.Credit: Wayne Taylor

Such succession planning, when a popular leader is still in the job, is talked about in hushed tones as potential candidates try to remain loyal while simultaneously positioning themselves for the job.

Speculation about who will lead the Victorian Greens became reality a fortnight ago when the party’s current leader, Samantha Ratnam, announced she would contest the Greens preselection for the federal seat of Wills.

Preselection voting closed late on Wednesday evening, with the high-profile Greens leader a near certainty to be announced as the winner. If successful, there appears to be no immediate reason – or rule – that says she must stand down as state leader, but many of her colleagues agree it would be the courteous thing to do.

With a leadership ballot on the cards, it will fall on the party room, of just eight MPs – the perfect amount to fit into a Toyota Tarago – to select the next driver to chauffeur the Greens to polling day.

Those with a seat inside that Toyota, as well as a large chunk of the broader membership base, suspect either respected Brunswick MP Dr Tim Read or deputy leader Ellen Sandell, the first Greens MP elected to the lower house of the Victorian Parliament, will be the party’s choice.

But time served is not always a prerequisite for the Greens leadership. Ratnam herself took on the job in 2017 having never served a day in parliament when she was picked to replace Greg Barber.

That precedent has some members – particularly the younger and more radical cohort – openly discussing the prospect of some fresher faces joining the leadership team.

Under Ratnam, the Greens’ parliamentary team increased to eight at the last election. The party also made large gains in the Melbourne electorates of Northcote, Footscray Albert Park and Preston. But she has also overseen a period of deep divisions and members becoming increasingly factionalised, largely driven by the party’s near obsessive focus on its internal trans-rights debate.

Unlike the Greens, ideology is playing no part in the Victorian National Party’s succession planning.

At the outset, it’s important to note there is currently no vacancy to lead the party. Peter Walsh, who turned 70 in January, has assured colleagues he still has the energy to continue in the role.

But that assurance didn’t prevent a flurry of speculation in February when Walsh announced a snap press conference alongside federal National Party leader David Littleproud.

This isn’t the first time rumours of Walsh’s retirement have swept Spring Street. Ahead of the 2022 election, Nationals MPs speculated the long-standing leader might hand over to his deputy, Steph Ryan – who had been widely seen as the next party leader – before polling day. Instead, she quit and he stayed on.

Unlike the Victorian Liberal Party, which has had 10 leadership changes since 1982, the junior Coalition partner has had just 10 leaders over its more than 100-year history. What this means is that Walsh, unlike Pesutto, will be provided the opportunity to leave at a time of his choosing. It’s just that some MPs think that time should come soon.

This is not a reflection of his leadership. Under Walsh, the party picked up three lower house seats in 2022, elected a second upper house member and boosted its primary vote. There is also widespread acknowledgement that Walsh has been a stable force in the opposition rooms during an otherwise chaotic 12 months for the Coalition, driven by deep divisions within the Liberal Party.

But there remains a view among some that should Walsh be planning to exit at the next election, he should consider handing over the reins a year or two before polling day.

“If someone new is going to come in, they should have a good lead-up time,” one Nationals MP said.

If, of course, a vacancy does arise, party insiders suspect the two primary candidates will be Gippsland South MP Danny O’Brien and Emma Kealy, who represents Lowan.

Close observers of National Party politics have noted that Walsh has taken on a quasi-mentoring role with Kealy – his deputy – leading some to believe he is helping her prepare to step up.

Fuelling this narrative is memories of a tit-for-tat between O’Brien and Walsh after the 2022 election — which continued in the party room — over the future of the Victorian Coalition.

While such planning may appear premature, it will ensure the Nats don’t mimic Labor’s messy leadership transition last September or the ongoing speculation the Liberal Party faces.

Annika Smethurst is state political editor for The Age.

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