‘Confident but not too confident’: Labor holding on in Melton

Labor appears to have fended off a strong challenge from independents and the Liberal Party to retain the west suburban seat of Melton.

A Liberal win is still technically possible as the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) works through a complicated distribution of preferences, but Labor’s Steve McGhie led the count late on Monday.

Steve McGhie is on target to retain the seat of Melton for Labor.Credit: Jason South

“I’m pleased that I’m in front and I believe it will stay that way,” McGhie told The Age . ”But until it’s finalised, I’m confident but not too confident.”

Before Saturday’s election, Labor had feared losing the seat for the first time in three decades and earmarked it as a target for resources and announcements during the election campaign.

Labor’s primary vote slipped backwards in the 2014 and 2018 elections in the traditionally blue-collar seat, as a fast-growing population on Melbourne’s fringe put a strain on roads, transport, hospitals and schools.

On Monday afternoon, the VEC was recalibrating the two-candidate preferred (2CP) vote count between McGhie and Liberal candidate Graham Watt. As of 10pm on Monday night, McGhie was ahead of Liberal candidate Graham Watt 55 per cent to 45 per cent on the 2CP vote, with least 60 per cent of preferential votes still to be counted.

With almost 73 per cent of the vote counted, McGhie was about 4500 primary votes ahead of Watt.

The VEC recalibration was needed because the commission initially projected McGhie and independent Ian Birchall would be the final two candidates. But Birchall polled only 10 per cent of the primary vote.

Similar 2CP tweaks were also being undertaken on Monday in the seats of Albert Park, Mulgrave, Brighton, Point Cook, Shepparton and Werribee.

McGhie said he was “not surprised” the Liberal candidate ended up being his closest challenger.

“I actually expected that, my Liberal opponent ran a pretty good campaign,” he said.

Labor’s margin in Melton fell to 4 per cent in 2018 with a primary vote of 34.9 per cent, but won the seat on preference flows. On the first count, Labor polled 38.1 per cent of Melton’s primary votes and the Liberals 24.5 per cent.

Watt campaigned heavily on the perceived “neglect” of Melton, and the Liberals promised huge road upgrades to the Melton Highway and Western Freeway.

McGhie said he did “reasonably well” with multicultural groups in Melton, whom he courted during his four-year term, and believed enough voters were “satisfied that things were being done” in the electorate, such as the forthcoming Melton hospital, level crossing removals and new schools.

Graham Watt (right), the Liberal candidate for Melton, on Saturday.Credit: Scott McNaughton

It took several days in 2018 for the VEC to declare McGhie the winner in Melton, and that wait is likely to be repeated this year as preferences from a large field of 14 candidates are sifted between McGhie and Watt.

The VEC on Monday named Melton as one of 10 “potential close seats”, alongside Bass, Brighton, Benambra, Hastings, Hawthorn, Mildura, Mornington, Northcote and Pakenham.

Melton, as well as Brighton, Hawthorn and Northcote, were all identified to undergo a computerised recheck, as well as Point Cook and Werribee because of the large number of candidates in those electorates. The computerised recount in Melton will only begin after the 2CP tally has been corrected.

Watt, who did not respond to requests for comment on Monday, was preferenced on how-to-vote cards by a number of conservative micro parties and candidates, as well as Birchall, who was expected to have been Labor’s main challenger.

Birchall campaigned on increasing the size of the coming hospital, but pulled in far fewer primary votes on Saturday than he did in 2018, despite more resources, including the backing of the United Firefighters Union.

Birchall on Monday said he felt “ambivalent” about the result, saying his team did well in the face of major efforts by Labor and the Liberals.

“I feel rather flattered actually that they were trying so hard to keep me out,” he said.

“[My] biggest worry is that my preferences may allow a lame duck Liberal to get in.”

Dr Ian Birchall pulled 10 per cent of the primary vote in Melton.Credit: Joe Armao

Birchall switched from preferencing Labor to the Liberals on his how-to vote cards during pre-polling due to “feedback from the community”.

About one in 10 votes cast in Melton were informal – filled in incorrectly – and were excluded, a similar result to 2018, which made the area one of the highest informal votes in the state.

Independent candidate Jarrod Bingham, a snake catcher who polled just over 6 per cent of the primary vote, said he was “obviously disappointed” with the outcome.

“It just shows that Daniel Andrews can do whatever he wants for the next four years and get away with it,” he said. “But it is what it is, that’s democracy.”

This story is part of our in-depth local coverage of the key seats of Melton, Hawthorn and Richmond at the November state election.

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