Allan’s likeability rating has tumbled and there may be no way back

It was late 1988 when current affairs magazine, The Bulletin, ran its famous cover story, featuring then federal opposition leader, John Howard.

“Mr 18 per cent. Why on earth does this man bother?”

Questions deserve to be asked about the performance of Premier Jacinta Allan after her approval rating fell below Liberal leader John Pesutto’s. Credit: The Age

The headline was based on a Morgan Gallup poll that revealed Bob Hawke was leading Howard as preferred prime minister by a whopping 69 to 18 per cent margin. Six months later, Howard was rolled by Andrew Peacock.

Compared to Hawke’s 51 per cent buffer, news this week that Victorian Opposition Leader John Pesutto has, for the first time, inched one point ahead of Premier Jacinta Allan, seems unremarkable. Particularly when you consider it is still two years until polling day.

But that hasn’t stopped Labor MPs, particularly those in some of the state’s more marginal seats, feeling a little jittery about the party’s prospects under Allan.

Allan’s “likeability” score – positive views minus negative views – has tumbled in her first 14 months in the job, as has her rating as preferred premier. When she took over in September 2023, 38 per cent of voters were convinced she’d be a better premier than Pesutto, who at that time recorded a Howard-esque score of just 19 per cent.

Since then, Allan’s rating has fallen to 29 per cent compared to Pesutto, who has improved his position by 11 percentage points to be favoured by 30 per cent of voters.

This slump has also coincided with a fall in Labor’s primary vote from 39 per centage points, to 28 per cent. Over the same period, support for the Coalition has snuck up six points to 38 per cent, giving the opposition a 10 point buffer over Labor.

To make matters worse, Pesutto managed to inch ahead of Allan as preferred premier during one of his most tumultuous periods as Liberal leader, during which he spent three weeks in the federal court defending defamation accusations made by a former colleague as a string of MPs provided evidence against him.

Not all the government’s troubles are Allan’s doing, of course. As her supporters will tell you, globally, incumbent governments are struggling to impress voters during this period of economic turmoil and high inflation.

Add to that weakening political loyalties, a trend that is impacting support for traditional parties, including the Liberals.

Then there is the “it’s time” factor, with Allan finally handed the chance to take over as leader as Labor neared a decade in power. Party strategists acknowledge that she is also battling a growing perception that perhaps she is leading a tired government that has simply run out of puff.

After all, she’s not the first premier to face this problem. The last three who came to office midterm – Denis Napthine, John Brumby and Joan Kirner – promptly led their parties to electoral defeat.

There is also an acknowledgment that Labor’s current poll slump could be a case of midterm blues and reflective of a string of recent policy backflips taken by Allan after the resignation of Daniel Andrews.

But for every excuse, there area growing number of Labor MPs willing to present a less flattering narrative. Of a leader who has missed her chance to woo Victorians and one who should be held accountable for the dramatic drop in support the state government has experienced in the past 12 months.

Those championing this view are also quick to point out that, for the most part, Labor premiers before Allan have enjoyed strong leads as preferred premier.

As premiers, Steve Bracks and John Brumby both increased their approval ratings in their first 18 months in the job, and mostly led their opponents in the preferred premier rating.

As one critic was keen to highlight this week, even Labor premier Joan Kirner out-polled the Liberals’ Jeff Kennett as preferred leader ahead of the 1992 election, when voters lined up to boot her government out of office.

Problematically for Allan, her issues aren’t just in the polls but internal with MPs increasingly frustrated by the government’s media strategy, a return to more centralised decision-making as well as ongoing tensions between the treasurer’s and premier’s offices.

Much of what happens next is up to Allan.

Optimists at the cabinet table, even those critical of Allan’s early performance, insist things can turn around, but opportunities cannot be lost.

On the policy front, Labor’s decision to make housing a tenure-defining policy is smart given shifting voter demographics, but the government must continue to sell its reforms to voters and consistently frame these changes as cost-of-living measures. Not only that, the government can’t just discuss the housing issues, it must deliver.

Critics have also pinpointed Allan’s media strategy, which lacks the impact, reach and authenticity of the Andrews era. Going forward, Allan would be wise to use every media opportunity to offer authenticity, not to come across as scripted, rehearsed or mimic Andrews.

To counter concerns that Labor’s longevity will be a liability, Allan should also consider refreshing her cabinet over summer to reward talent and update the ministry leading into the next election.

Ultimately, the preferred premier metric is not the sole gauge of an election outcome. Even John Howard – Mr 18 per cent – returned to the top job and went on to become one of the country’s longest serving prime ministers.

But Labor ignores this midterm warning at its peril.

Annika Smethurst is state political editor.

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