‘Ripe for a teal candidate’: Inside Queensland’s bluest Greens seat

Three years on from Brisbane’s “Greenslide”, three seats are in the firing line as the next federal election approaches.

But while the party’s weakest seat, Ryan, might be leafy, locals aren’t so sure it’s still Green.

Established as an electorate in 1949, Ryan was a blue seat – that is, held by the conservative Liberal Party or its Queensland successor, the LNP – for all but 11 months in 2001 until the Greens’ Elizabeth Watson-Brown won in 2022.

Ryan – part of which is pictured here to the right of the river – includes riverside suburbs dominated by high density housing and younger voters, and leafier and semi-rural parts of the city.

The electorate covers two dozen suburbs, from urban riverside areas near the University of Queensland campus to more affluent suburbs where at least 80 per cent of residents are homeowners.

University of Queensland political economist Professor Shahar Hameiri not only works in Ryan, he also lives there, in the semi-rural suburb of Brookfield on Brisbane’s western fringe.

Corflutes supporting the Greens pepper the electorate’s roadsides, but Hameiri said that didn’t reflect the reality for Brookfield voters, who favoured the LNP by 61 per cent at the last election.

Across the electorate, Watson-Brown’s first preference count lagged 8.3 per cent behind then-incumbent LNP member Julian Simmonds, and her final lead was a slim 2.6 per cent.

University of Queensland political economist and Ryan local Shahar Hameiri said counting corflutes could be misleading.Credit: Catherine Strohfeldt

“The electorate of Ryan is actually ripe for a teal candidate, but in the absence of [one], the Greens have basically picked up the mantle,” Hameiri said.

Watson-Brown, he said, fit the profile of many teal candidates in other parts of the country.

“We’re talking about a professional woman with a very long career in architecture, that is relatively moderate compared to some of the [Greens] candidates in other parts of the country, and obviously talks a lot about climate change, which, in a leafy seat like Ryan, is an issue that a lot of people do care about,” he said.

Her two main challengers are both high-achieving women, too.

Labor candidate Rebecca Hack has a decorated career in education and says she has a personal stake in building “climate-resilient cities” since her Toowong home flooded in 2022.

LNP candidate Maggie Forrest works as a barrister in Brisbane, and lives in Ryan with her young family. Her campaign hinges on her major party membership, which she says means she can deliver upgrades to local roads, community infrastructure and sporting and community clubs.

In contrast, Watson-Brown’s campaign has leant into national-scale promises for cheaper healthcare, action on climate change and fixing the housing crisis – a hot topic after the Greens’ bruising negotiations on housing last year – and is hoping to capitalise on an apparent national decline in LNP support.

A corflute for Ryan MP Elizabeth Watson-Brown focuses on Liberal Party Leader Peter Dutton.Credit: Catherine Strohfeldt

The latest results from Resolve Political Monitor showed a 5 per cent drop in approval for Liberal Party leader Peter Dutton as preferred prime minister from March to April in Queensland, with fallout from Donald Trump’s election win denting Dutton’s image.

In Brisbane, the close call that was ex-tropical cyclone Alfred has added another environment-themed chip onto Dutton’s shoulder.

Taringa local Sharon Pearce said despite concern over “dangerous times” globally, her number one priority in selecting a candidate was climate change.

“It doesn’t seem to be coming up much in terms of the major parties at the moment,” she said.

Pearce is in her 70s, owns her home outright, and has lived in the area for almost 40 years, but said her vote centred on building the community.

“The cost of living is obviously a real pressure for people,” she said.

“Housing, too, obviously – not for me, but for the younger generation of people looking for a house or sea-change in this area.”

Between 45 and 55 per cent of residents in neighbouring suburbs – including Toowong, St Lucia, and Indooroopilly – are renters.

The median age in these suburbs is about 30. In St Lucia, it is 25, although that includes many international students who are unable to vote.

Further from the CBD, Brookfield has a median age of 47, while The Gap, which sits squarely between Mount Coot-tha and Nebo, has a median age of 42.

“It is a lot of an older crowd here … it’s very heavily conservative and LNP,” Melanie Behrendorff, who lives in The Gap, said.

Behrendorff moved to Brisbane from Bundaberg, has rented her home in The Gap for about five years, and works in Red Hill.

“I’m more focused about the community … anything empathy-based, not money-based – public transport, Medicare, all that kind of stuff,” she said.

Melanie Behrendorff said she was interested in local issues that were “empathy-based, not money-based”, including public transport access and healthcare.Credit: Catherine Strohfeldt

Behrendorff said her ideal candidate would bring “a change of perspective that I don’t think’s going to happen”.

“Despite people thinking there’s a Greenslide… I don’t think there is that big of [one], unfortunately – I just think they were just a little bit louder,” she said.

Hameiri remained optimistic that incumbency would give Watson-Brown a new edge.

“One of the issues that the Greens always face is that people sometimes just don’t believe that a vote for them is viable,” he said.

“I wonder if having been elected once suggests to people that actually ... they’re going to potentially get in.”

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