By Max Maddison
In a parallel universe, NSW Premier Chris Minns emerges from the 2023 state election with 49 seats, delivering Labor a majority in the lower house.
No longer forced to negotiate with three independents for supply, his victory came as the Liberals suffered the ignominy of being reduced to 19 seats after losing Drummoyne, Oatley, Terrigal and Ryde to Labor, and Pittwater and Willoughby to teal independents.
Now 17 seats short of government in its own right, the Coalition’s 2027 election prospects are grim.
This is the alternative history NSW Labor is now exploring.
In a submission to the ongoing parliamentary inquiry into voter engagement in August, the party recommended introducing Compulsory Preferential Voting (CPV) in state and local government elections.
Alongside the Northern Territory, NSW is one of just two jurisdictions with optional preferential voting (OPV). This means that, unlike in a federal election, voters choose how many candidates they number, allowing preferences to exhaust.
NSW Labor secretary Dominic Ofner wrote that the discrepancy between OPV and CPV across federal, state and council elections risked “voter confusion and increased ballot informality”.
“This issue is particularly acute when [elections] are held in close proximity to one another, as was the case in 2019 and may again be in 2023-24.”
Sources on the Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters (JSCEM) said Labor MPs asked Ofner about the reform when he appeared at the hearing in September.
Special Minister of State John Graham did not rule out CPV, instead noting the change would depend on a state-based referendum, “which is not proposed at this time”.
“The committee is receiving a range of views from the public and political parties on how best to increase voter engagement, and NSW Labor’s submission is another welcome contribution to the inquiry,” he said.
New Queensland Liberal Premier David Crisafulli made returning his state to OPV an election promise, eight years after the Palaszczuk Labor government reintroduced CPV.
Labor has historically suffered at the hands of OPV, with preferences flowing from the Greens curtailed. Likewise, independents and minor parties lose out from votes flowing from the majors.
Conversely, the NSW Liberal Party has benefited, with generally higher primary votes for its MPs more difficult for Labor and independents to overcome on preferences – as evidenced by the muted “teal wave” in 2023.
Pittwater independent MP Jacqui Scruby, who lost by 606 votes in 2023, said the current system led to “perverse outcomes for voters”.
Pittwater MP Jacqui Scruby believes the current system has perverse outcomes. Credit: Janie Barrett
“The reality is that NSW is the only state where an electorate risks ending up with an MP that the majority of voters didn’t actually want,” she said.
“The case for mandatory preferential voting is a strong one. It ensures every voter exercises their full democratic expression. It reduces confusion by bringing consistency with federal voting.”
In his submission to the inquiry, election expert Ben Raue, who simulated the parallel universe election above, questioned assertions CPV would ensure “every vote is valued and counted”, arguing that it would result in more informal votes.
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