One Liberal leader will be grateful for Dutton’s demise

If there is one Liberal grateful for Peter Dutton’s stunning leadership failings – and his history-making defeat – it must be NSW Opposition Leader Mark Speakman. Dutton’s demise will be the making of Speakman, and will cement his leadership heading into the 2027 state election.

But to capitalise on the complete rejection of the federal Liberals – now seen as a party that is anti-renewables, anti-women and anti-migrant – Speakman must ignore the white male Boomer membership of his party, the so-called base, which has proven to be completely out-of-touch with modern Australia.

NSW Opposition Leader Mark Speakman (left) and former federal opposition leader Peter Dutton.Credit: Kate Geraghty, Alex Ellinghausen

Instead, Speakman must make a virtue of his best asset: a sizeable chunk of his party room are Millennials, including nine MPs under the age of 40. This is a demographic cohort that punished the conservatives at the federal poll. Those younger MPs should guide Liberal policy heading into the 2027 election.

The most crucial policy involves housing. The NSW Liberals have struggled to land a position on whether to be NIMBYs or YIMBYs. If the federal results are anything to go by, areas with an increasing number of apartments – such as Bennelong and Parramatta – turned their backs on the conservatives. Opposing high-density living options, such as units around railway stations, will only keep younger voters away. The NSW Liberals need to be a party of YIMBYs.

But housing is not the Liberals’ only weakness. Election after election, they have failed to acknowledge that if women are to vote for their party, it needs more women candidates. The only conclusion you can draw is that some parts of the organisation – that mystical base that selects candidates – do not really want women in parliament. The party refuses to back quotas, yet cannot find a better way to achieve equal gender representation within its ranks.

To be fair, the state Liberals have had a better track record than their federal counterparts, though men still outnumber women in the lower house (15 to nine). However, when you combine both houses of parliament, Liberal women make up 45 per cent of the party room. The party needs to build on that, not rest on its laurels.

“Gladys Berejiklian’s protege”: The Liberal candidate at the federal poll for Bradfield, Gisele Kapterian.Credit: Rhett Wyman

You need to only look to Gladys Berejiklian’s protege Gisele Kapterian, who is on track to buck the overwhelming trend and hold the once blue-ribbon federal seat of Bradfield for the Liberals. Kapterian is an exemplary candidate for the NSW Liberals moving forward: an accomplished progressive woman from a migrant background who wants to serve. Indeed, NSW Labor heavyweights were rooting for Kapterian to beat teal candidate Nicolette Boele amid fears she would run for a state seat if unsuccessful. Kapterian, in Labor’s view, would be a threat in Macquarie Street. Berejiklian, mark two.

Although the ABC and Nine initially called the seat for Boele, the vote in Bradfield is ongoing and, as of Wednesday, Liberal strategists were quietly confident that postal and absentee ballots would swing the seat in Kapterian’s favour. That will be a shame for the state Liberals, who no doubt would have welcomed her into their party room. Her election to federal parliament will at least provide one bright moment for the conservatives in NSW.

The NSW Coalition came up with the energy road map that kicked off the widespread rollout of renewables across the state. Dutton’s spectacular collapse should give Speakman complete confidence that the NSW Liberals are, and have always been, on the right track. While some of Speakman’s colleagues flirted with nuclear, none shared the same enthusiasm as Dutton for the hugely expensive technology. Speakman should remind voters ad nauseam of his party’s nation-leading commitment to renewable energy.

Moderate Liberal James Wallace, who replaced former treasurer Matt Kean in the seat of Hornsby, is convinced Speakman is the right leader at the right time. As a wise head, Speakman (a highly respected barrister, former attorney-general and environment minister) can steer the ship towards the “sensible centre”.

“Aspirational young professionals should be our core constituency,” Wallace says. “Millennials are the biggest voting bloc in NSW. Dutton lost these voters en masse, but the NSW Liberals can win them back.”

How? I asked him.

“With policy substance, not slogans. We want practical and long-term reforms on housing affordability, renters’ rights, runaway inflation, domestic violence and policies that make it easier to manage work and young kids.”

Speakman is the antithesis of Dutton. He is not a head kicker. He would not run a law and order auction policy agenda. Furthermore, he’s cerebral, disinclined to populism. He should be an ideal progressive leader to help reshape the party’s tarnished image. But his big threat remains the party base, the faceless men who helped put his federal colleagues in the political wilderness. If the NSW Liberals want a chance of success in 2027, Speakman will need to turn his back on the party dinosaurs and the antiquated values they hold.

Alexandra Smith is the state political editor.

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