Knife-edge seat of Bradfield to be decided by absentees

The Liberals retain a wafer-thin lead in the battle for the seat of Bradfield, but the fate of candidate Gisele Kapterian will rest on whether as many as 3200 uncounted absentee votes fall her way.

Kapterian leads teal candidate Nicolette Boele by just 195 votes, with counting of absentee ballots – which are votes cast outside the Bradfield electorate – to continue on Friday. There are also another 2700 declared pre-poll ballots (out-of-area early votes) to count.

Teal independent Nicolette Boele (left) and Liberal challenger Gisele Kapterian cast their votes on Saturday.

Despite the ABC and Nine calling Bradfield for Boele on Saturday night, the seat count remains one of the tightest in the country. Even if Kapterian wins, Bradfield will become an even more marginal seat after Boele secured swings to her in almost all booths across the electorate.

A senior Liberal strategist, not authorised to speak about the count, said the party remained positive that Kapterian could hold her lead over Boele and win the seat.

Kapterian, a Salesforce executive and former Liberal staffer, was hastily installed as the Bradfield candidate late last year after securing the backing of former premier Gladys Berejiklian and former federal treasurer Joe Hockey.

She beat anti-Voice campaigner Nyunggai Warren Mundine for preselection for Bradfield, despite Mundine having the backing of shadow treasurer Angus Taylor and former prime minister Tony Abbott.

Former Bradfield MP Paul Fletcher surprised colleagues by announcing his retirement in early December, leaving Kapterian less than five months to campaign in the seat. She had expected to run in North Sydney, but it was abolished in the redistribution of boundaries.

In a speech to the right-leaning Sydney Institute just a week before he announced his retirement, Fletcher described teal independents as a “giant green Left con job”.

Boele, who narrowly missed out on unseating Fletcher in 2022, retained a campaign office in Gordon after her loss and styled herself as the shadow MP for Bradfield. She had significant backing from Climate 200, as well as hundreds of local donors.

Speaking at her election night party at a distillery in Artarmon, attended by more than 500 campaign volunteers, Boele stopped short of claiming the seat, insisting it was still too close to call.

“What we do know in Bradfield is that we have made Australian political history,” Boele told her supporters. “We have proven that there is no such thing as a safe seat.”

If Boele is successful, she will join three fellow teal candidates on the crossbench in Canberra, all of whom increased their margins at this election.

In Wentworth, Allegra Spender secured a 7 per cent primary swing to her, while Zali Steggall in Warringah had a similar-sized swing. Sophie Scamps in Mackellar also increased her hold on the seat with a 4 per cent swing to her.

Another independent, the former Nationals MP for Calare, Andrew Gee, will also be on the crossbench.

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