How the diabolical federal election result has hit the NSW Liberals

The NSW Liberals have been hit by the aftershocks of the Coalition’s disastrous federal election result, with the state opposition trailing the Minns government for the first time in 18 months.

In the first voter survey since the May election, when the federal Coalition was decimated across the country, the NSW Liberals’ primary vote has slumped to 32 per cent, down from 36 per cent.

NSW Labor, however, has seen its primary vote jump five points to 38 per cent – its best result since September 2023 and one point higher than when it swept to power at the last state election.

The exclusive Resolve Political Monitor for the Herald shows Chris Minns remains preferred premier with 35 per cent of voters – down from 40 per cent – while the Liberal leader Mark Speakman has boosted his rating by one point to 16 per cent.

Crucially, 49 per cent of voters are undecided about who is best to lead NSW.

Resolve director Jim Reed said the election hangover had impacted the NSW Coalition.

“NSW Labor’s regain of a primary vote lead mirrors federal Labor’s fortunes, and given Minns has not improved his standing there’s every reason to conclude that they are benefiting from the reflective glory,” Reed said.

“The Coalition are back down to the levels we first saw post-election, but Speakman has not lost any personal capital so that looks to be a brand effect too.”

The survey results will likely rattle the NSW Liberals, as the party starts state election preparation by opening preselections this week for all 24 Liberal-held lower house seats.

The party is also under the control of a management committee, chaired by former NSW premier Nick Greiner, after its federal takeover last year amid the local government debacle where the party failed to submit 144 nominations for the elections.

One of the tasks of the management committee is rewriting its rules as well as to improve female representation, after only six women were elected to the federal lower house at the May poll.

The NSW Liberal party room is much closer to gender parity than their federal colleagues, with nine female MPs in the lower house and 15 males. In the upper house, there are more female Liberals (six) than males (three).

Speakman has said that he does not want to weigh in to federal party issues, but believes the state arm of the party does not need quotas because it is close to equal representation.

Quotas are a divisive issue across the party. Federal Leader Sussan Ley has said she would not dictate what any state division should do but stressed she wants more women preselected.

The RPM survey show that the highest support for quotas is in NSW, with 34 per cent of voters backing them, compared to 29 per cent in Victoria and 32 per cent in Queensland. Nationally, 27 per cent of Coalition voters back quotas, while 44 per cent oppose them.

The RPM surveyed 1054 voters between July 13 and 18.

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