Anthony Albanese has held onto his inner Sydney seat of Grayndler

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Labor is projected to win the election and Anthony Albanese has held onto his inner Sydney seat of Grayndler. Peter Dutton and the Coalition cannot form government.

Our analysts say the swings against the Coalition have been so strong across so many seats that there is no way for Peter Dutton to form government with a majority in parliament.

Labor has made big gains in most of the target seats it had named to increase its majority and the early results show that it has achieved those objectives.

Labor has also gained big swings in hard-fought electorates that it did not name as target seats. One prominent Labor supporter says the early results indicate a Labor landslide.

Labor supporters celebrate at Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s election night function at the Canterbury-Hurlstone Park RSL Club. Credit: Alex Ellinghausen

It’s been 76 years since Grayndler was created, which means it’s been 76 years of the division being under Labor’s stewardship.

When Anthony Albanese defended his inner-Sydney seat in 2022, it was the 10th time since 1996 that his campaign for the division had proven successful. That’s if you don’t count the power broker’s cunning play before the 1993 election, which saw fellow left-winger Jeannette McHugh parachuted in from eastern Sydney’s since-abolished Phillip electorate, at the expense of incumbent Leo McLeay, to keep the inner west division warm for the future prime minister for the following three years.

Grayndler has been held by Anthony Albanese, pictured here in the seat’s suburb of Marrickville in May 2022, since 1996.Credit: Dean Sewell

A safe Labor seat it may be considered, but Grayndler has been the site of some turmoil during the 2025 election campaign: on April 22, a plethora of political signs was defaced with offensive symbols and language in a vandalism spree across Newtown, Enmore and neighbouring Sydney electorate suburb Erskineville, and on April 23, an elderly man was allegedly assaulted at an Ashfield polling booth.

That same day, while across the country in Western Australia, Albanese faced questions about putting Greens candidate Hannah Thomas, a vocal critic of his government, second on his how-to-vote card.

“The last time around I won on primary votes. My preferences [didn’t] get counted. That’s what happens in Grayndler and we’ll be continuing to advocate for a No.1 vote, not just for myself in Grayndler, but for my friend Chris Bowen in McMahon, and for Labor candidates [elsewhere],” Albanese told the press pack. “I’m not about promoting Greens candidates.”

Here’s what you need to know about Grayndler.

Who are the candidates in Grayndler for 2025?

Created in 1949 when parliament was expanded, Grayndler is named after former general secretary of the Australian Workers’ Union Ted Grayndler, and was once the home of Sydney’s working class. Migration and then gentrification, however, has radically altered the electorate’s demographic make-up in recent decades. The intricacies of its voting preferences has also changed.

When Albanese was first elected on his 33rd birthday in 1996, his main challenger was a candidate from the since-dissolved No Aircraft Noise Party. Now, Albanese’s main challenger is considered to be Thomas, his running mate, who is a lawyer and activist. She moved to Australia in 2009 as an international student and rents in Newtown.

The Greens candidate has been publicly critical of Albanese-led Labor’s approach to climate and the environment, and their handling of the conflict in Gaza, which saw many protesters camp outside the prime minister’s electorate office in Marrickville for months on end, forcing staff to abandon the site in mid-2024 over safety concerns.

Thomas is second on Albanese’s how-to-vote card, though she has put him third, behind two-time Oscar-nominated documentary filmmaker David Bradbury, who is running as an independent. Other candidates include Liberal’s David Smallbone, Pauline Hanson’s One Nation’s Rodney Smith, and Trumpet of Patriots’ Cheri Rae Burrell.

What were the results for Grayndler in 2022?

You can take a look at the interactive below, or search this interactive map for more information on electorates and candidates.

To summarise, Albanese won Grayndler in 2022 with 53.63 per cent of votes, followed by Greens candidate Rachael Jacobs at 22.04 per cent.

What suburbs are in Grayndler?

The Australian Electoral Commission’s recent redrawing of boundaries has meant Grayndler has gone from being Australia’s smallest electorate – it was previously 32 square kilometres – to the country’s second-smallest electorate at 34 square kilometres.

Covering most of Sydney’s Inner West Council area, Grayndler includes Annandale, Ashfield, Enmore, Haberfield, Leichardt, Marrickville, parts of Newtown, Petersham, Rozelle, Stanmore, Summer Hill, and Tempe. The recent redistribution of boundaries means the Sydney electorate has gained the Balmain peninsula north of the City West Link at Grayndler’s loss, though areas south of Marrickville Road has been added to the portfolio at Barton’s loss.

Grayndler also picked up territory that was formerly Watson’s, including Ashbury, Croydon Park and Enfield. This has helped the Labor versus the Greens margin to increase to 17.3 per cent from 17.1 per cent.

Is Albanese likely to retain Grayndler?

To put a long story short, it’s assumed he will, but Albanese is not immune to criticism from Grayndler residents and political rivals, including the Greens.

In four out of the last five elections, candidates for the Greens have finished second to Albanese.

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