We’re on Trumpian time now. Albanese’s win could last five minutes or five years

Anthony Albanese just survived round one in a political boxing match that places him at constant risk of a knockout blow before the federal election.

The prime minister secured a concession from Donald Trump that the United States president has not offered to any other country so far: to consider an exemption for Australia from trade barriers that can cost jobs.

That is a very big win. But it is merely an early advantage. History shows that Trump can change his mind at any moment.

Opposition Leader Peter Dutton is ready to take a swing if Albanese cannot secure a guaranteed exemption by the time Australians go to the polls in April or May.

Dutton sounded bipartisan on Tuesday but others in the Coalition have already prepared their line of attack: to blame Albanese for appointing Kevin Rudd as ambassador in Washington and turning Rudd into the fall guy if the tariffs go ahead.

So let’s get this point out of the way quickly: Trump will not be deciding his tariffs on whether he likes Rudd. It is true that Rudd once called Trump a “village idiot” but it is also true that Marco Rubio once called him a “con artist” – and Rubio is now Secretary of State.

Donald Trump and Anthony Albanese spoke on the phone for 40 minutes. Credit: AP, Alex Ellinghausen

An earlier Australian ambassador, Arthur Sinodinos, a former Liberal senator who remains well connected in Washington, says Rudd is doing everything to stop the tariffs.

“Kevin is Kevin,” Sinodinos says. “He’ll be relishing the fact that he’s in the middle of the fight and he’s working very hard. He’s doing a lot of work with different parts of the administration, and he also did preparatory work, because people could see this was going to happen.”

What matters more is the direct relationship between Albanese and Trump. Just as the president negotiated directly with then-prime minister Malcolm Turnbull on tariffs eight years ago, he will want to deal with the Australian leader today.

So where does Albanese stand? Three factors stood out in Trump’s remarks in the White House when he declared there were “no exemptions” from the tariffs.

Firstly, he praised Albanese as a “very fine man” – nothing like the swipes Trump has made against leaders such as Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. The phone call with Albanese clearly went well. There is no ammunition for Dutton.

Secondly, Trump confirmed he was considering an exemption for Australia. The president’s stance was exactly as Albanese had claimed in Parliament House a short time earlier. Any difference between the two leaders would have been another opportunity for Dutton.

Thirdly, the president echoed some of the prime minister’s case – such as the fact of the American trade surplus with Australia and the big exports of American aircraft. The arguments must have resonated.

So far, so good. The length of the phone call – 40 minutes – was also a positive sign. But we have been here before. Turnbull gained a commitment from Trump on tariff exemptions in 2017, only to see White House officials try to get the president to renege. Turnbull had to go straight to Trump to ensure he kept his word.

Artwork: Michael Howard.Credit:

Even after that, the Trump tariff warriors tried to scrap the exemption when Scott Morrison was prime minister and joined the president for dinner at the G20 summit in Japan in 2019. The Australians had to scramble to defend the deal.

The same White House officials – Peter Navarro among them – are urging Trump on again. And the president’s only pledge now is to “consider” exemptions.

This is why the wording of the White House proclamation on aluminium tariffs is important. It sets out the grievance felt by Navarro and others about the increase in Australian aluminium exports because they claim there was a “verbal commitment” to limit the shipments. This is unfair: it expects Australia to freeze its industry forever, even after Trump was replaced by Joe Biden in the White House.

The mission is under way inside the White House to slam the door on Albanese. Eight years ago, the Australians went straight to Trump and took the tariff warriors by surprise. This time the warriors can see Australia coming. It will take an enormous effort to get an exemption.

Remember that these moves in the first Trump administration took almost a year to finalise, so a similar process this year could take until after the Australian election. We simply cannot be sure if the second Trump administration will move faster.

Albanese has had a win. But he cannot know if the win will last five years or five minutes. Everyone is on Trumpian time now.

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