The voters Albanese and Dutton must woo in 2025

A record 18 million people will have the right to cast a ballot on polling day, with a new electorate, the end of two others, the movement of half a million households and even the gender splits of particular seats all pivotal to the federal election’s results.

Australia’s voters are older, more numerous and more likely to live in Western Australia on average than when Anthony Albanese beat Scott Morrison, meaning the 2025 election will be fought over very different political terrain than three years ago.

Anthony Albanese (centre) voting with partner Jodie Haydon at the 2022 federal election. Much has changed since he cast his vote.Credit: Alex Ellinghausen

The shifting electoral map will shape the campaign, with both parties expected to make frequent trips to Western Australia and neither opting to oppose the state’s sweetheart deal on the GST despite its spiralling cost, in an election campaign that could begin within weeks.

At the 2022 election, there were 17.2 million people on the electoral roll. Almost 15.5 million, or 88.8 per cent, of them voted, the lowest turnout rate since before the introduction of compulsory voting at the 1925 election.

Population growth and campaigns by the Australian Electoral Commission to get people on the electoral roll mean an extra 710,000 will have their chance to be part of democracy this year.

Just last year, 494,000 people were added to the roll, with most of those young people and new citizens (offset by the death or departure of more than 150,000 people). There were 2.4 million roll updates in 2024 as people moved around the country.

More than half of those new voters reside in either NSW or Victoria.

While the two most populous states continue to grow, their pace lags that of Western Australia, where the economy is buoyed by mining. That difference has led to substantial redistributions in the three states, with Victoria and NSW losing a seat and Western Australia gaining one.

In NSW, the Federation-era seat of North Sydney, held by teal independent Kylea Tink, has been carved up, with parts pushed into the neighbouring seats of Bennelong, Bradfield and Warringah.

In Melbourne, the seat of Higgins was finally won for Labor by Michelle Ananda-Rajah at the 2022 election. But due to Victoria’s COVID-era loss of residents, it has been axed with its voters shifted into five surrounding electorates.

But over in Western Australia, strong population growth means the state will gain an extra electorate, taking its representation back to 16. The seat of Bullwinkel stretches from Perth’s fast-growing eastern suburban fringe and into rural centres such as Toodyay, Beverley and Northam.

The new seats and boundaries mean many voters will be in a different electorate: in Victoria, more than 200,000 households have shifted into a new seat; in Western Australia, about 130,000 have been affected; and in NSW, more than 360,000 households have moved.

The growing electoral roll also means there are now far more seats with large numbers of potential voters.

At the 2022 election, there were just three seats – Paterson in NSW and Adelaide and Mayo in South Australia – with more than 130,000 people eligible to vote.

This election, there will be at least 13 electorates with more than 130,000 potential voters. They include Berowra in Sydney’s north, Wright in regional Queensland and the outer-suburban Adelaide electorate of Spence.

The most populous seat will be Longman, which sits between Brisbane and the Sunshine Coast, with 141,000 possible voters. It’s the first time since 2016 that a seat has had so many potential voters. Many of the seats with the fewest people are in Tasmania because, as a state, it is guaranteed at least five MPs under the Constitution despite its small population.

A key issue for this election will be the gender divide between the parties and electorates.

One of the seismic elements of the 2022 election was the sweeping away of Liberal MPs by female teal independents in Sydney, Melbourne and Perth.

Each of those seats has far more female than male voters. The largest gender gap in the country is in the Melbourne seat of Kooyong, won by Monique Ryan from then-treasurer Josh Frydenberg. There are 7500 more women than men on the Kooyong roll, up by 1500 since 2022.

In nearby Goldstein, held by independent Zoe Daniel, the gap between women and men is 6300. Daniel faces a rematch with the Liberal she won the seat from, Tim Wilson.

Across Sydney, teal seats such as Wentworth (3000), Warringah (6500) and Mackellar (4027) have similarly sized gender differences. The Liberal-held seat of Bradfield, which independent Nicolette Boele narrowly lost in 2022 and is standing for again, has a gender gap of 4000.

The population has also aged since the last election.

At the 2022 poll, 36.9 per cent of the 117,000 voters in the Queensland regional seat of Hinkler were at least 65. Today, it’s more than 37.3 per cent, with a nation-leading 34,711 people in the seat at least 70.

Even electorates with scores of young voters have aged. The seat of Sydney, held by Labor frontbencher Tanya Plibersek, is one of the youngest in the country. Three years ago, about one in five Sydney voters were younger than 30. Now it is around 17.3 per cent, the same proportion as those at least 65.

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