The Liberal Party faces electoral mountain, but there is one bright spot for Sussan Ley

Sussan Ley and her shop-worn Coalition know they face an uphill battle over the next three years.

But the physical reality of that battle will confront them this week when what’s left of the Liberal and Nationals parties return to Canberra to sit in the House of Representatives for the first time since the May 3 cataclysm.

The challenge ahead for Sussan Ley is enormous. But the first post-election poll by RPM also highlights the challenges for Anthony Albanese.Credit: The Age

There are so many Labor MPs that some of them will have to sit on the side of the chamber reserved for His Majesty’s Most Loyal Opposition.

Voters also seem to have pushed the Coalition to the periphery with its primary vote in a new Resolve Political Monitor crashing to just 29 per cent from the disastrous 32 per cent recorded at the election.

The election result was the Coalition’s worst electoral performance since Ben Chifley faced off against Bob Menzies and his new Liberal Party in 1946. The Resolve poll suggests the situation has deteriorated.

It’s harsh to say that the Coalition has looked like a bunch of headless chooks since polling day. Harsh on the chooks, that is.

The result has caused some within the Liberal Party to wonder about its very soul. It’s not been helped by a Nationals junior partner that, due to its ability to cling on to its handful of seats, has not faced up to the electoral change taking place across the country.

There is also still a sneer at Anthony Albanese as if May 3 was a horrendous mistake perpetrated by foolhardy voters on the Coalition. This sneer drove many within the Coalition who, during Albanese’s first term, believed he was an interloper who got lucky.

But after Liberal MPs were swept aside across the country and Labor kept and added seats, it’s time for the opposition to realise the prime minister has more than a little political nous. The electoral scoreboard is simply not wrong.

The most important numbers – primary vote and two-party preferred – are horrendous, yet the poll reveals some upsides for Ley.

Of all the parties and MPs, including Albanese, she has the highest net likeability rating at plus 11. The PM is at plus four (although, in February, he was at negative 16).

The Liberals and Nationals are in positive territory, if well short of Labor.

In terms of performance, 57 per cent of those surveyed in Resolve’s pre-election poll rated Peter Dutton as poor. Ley has repaired that to “just” 29 per cent, although with a third undecided.

That’s a base from which to mount the recovery mission that a slim majority of the Liberal Party has given Ley and her deputy, Ted O’Brien.

Another key aspect of the poll is the attitude of voters to how the Coalition should act in opposition. When Albanese complained about Peter Dutton’s “relentless negativity”, it resonated with voters.

That’s what they saw and felt about the Coalition under the former leader.

The Resolve poll shows a clear majority of all voters – including most Coalition supporters – believe the Liberals and Nationals should work with the government to negotiate changes and form a consensus.

A knee-jerk “no” to anything and everything is unlikely to woo voters back.

As the Coalition starts sketching the outlines of a credible return to power this side of 2034, the poll should also give Albanese some pause about how he proceeds.

A record 94 seats in the House for Labor means political life should be easier, but Albanese knows there are issues ahead that could cause trouble.Credit: Steven Siewert

His extraordinary victory was built on an extraordinarily low primary vote. Resolve shows it still sitting about 35 per cent with even more voters – 36 per cent – backing anyone bar Labor or the Coalition.

In every policy area, from healthcare to dealing with crime, Labor is now ahead of the Coalition. In February, the government trailed the Coalition on 17 of those 18 policy issues.

Just on economic management, Labor was 17 points behind the Coalition six months ago. Now it shades the opposition by two points.

Voters’ attitudes hardened as the full force of an election campaign focused on Dutton, his less-than-stellar frontbench and their paucity of a policy offering. It was a contest that voters judged in Albanese’s favour – but that was almost three months ago.

A policy-free Coalition and that huge majority in the House of Representatives mean the focus is now squarely back on Albanese.

Issues such as Donald Trump or the government’s tone-deaf response to the ecological disaster playing out on South Australian beaches require a firm prime ministerial hand.

Having announced a three-day economic policy love-in for next month, he will have to take carriage of potentially difficult policy arguments.

The Resolve poll shows Albanese in the ascendancy and Ley looking over her shoulder. But it doesn’t take much for a prize chook to become Sunday’s roast.

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