PM’s 40-day trial will put Albanese to the ‘happy fall’ test: lapse early, redeem later

An election campaign scheduled to run over 40 days has the ring of a biblical trial to it. Lent, which we are now in, runs 40 days. It recalls the 40 days that the New Testament says Christ fasted in the desert before he began his ministry. The season culminates with Easter, marked by the crucifixion this Friday and, on Sunday, resurrection.

The Old Testament flood, for which Noah built his ark, was a storm that lasted 40 days and 40 nights. The Old Testament also says God tested the people of Israel by ordaining they should wander for 40 years in the desert before entering the Promised Land. The number 40 appears 146 times in scripture, and symbolises a period of testing, trial or probation.

Prime Minister Scott Morrison seized on Opposition Leader Anthony Albanese’s campaign stumble on Monday.Credit: James Brickwood; Alex Ellinghausen

Despite his very public Christianity, it is doubtful the prime minister had this number in mind when he drove to Government House on Palm Sunday. That, by the way, was the day Christ was welcomed to Jerusalem by adoring crowds, an event, it is written, that stirred the whole city. In a demonstration of the fickleness of the mob, less than a week later he would be crucified, in the company of only a faithful few.

But there is no doubt that Morrison set the six-week campaign as a trial for his opponent. Time and pressure, he figured, would expose the Labor leader.

Morrison believes the cover of COVID means Albanese has not faced real scrutiny. He also believes some parts of the media rue the trials they set Bill Shorten in 2019 and don’t want to see another Labor leader fail in another “unlosable” election. His gamble is that the competitive pressure in the media pack travelling with Albanese will ensure the opposition keader is exposed to a level of pressure he has never experienced.

Albanese’s 40 days began on Sunday. By Monday he understood what it meant. His long trial began with a fall on the first day of campaigning in earnest, when he was questioned over the cash rate, the unemployment rate and the cost of petrol.

Whether or not it was a fatal fall depends on what kind of election we are in. If, as Labor hopes, this campaign is a referendum on the prime minister, then Albanese had a bad day that will quickly wash away. Those who believe this think Morrison’s fate is predetermined. This faith holds that voters are waiting for Morrison, baseball bats in hand, and on May 21 he will be dispatched. All Albanese must do is stay a tiny target and stir the passions of the angry mob.

If, however, this campaign is what the government hopes then Monday’s fall will deeply wound Albanese. Because in this kind of campaign the future is not set and will be determined by events and the guile and stamina of the leaders and their acolytes.

Here God’s will is what you make it. Here there is a choice: between a prime minister battered and diminished by his errors but well known and still standing against an ill-defined and untested opposition leader. This race is not a poll on popularity but a contest of choices. The Coalition is betting it can win a “devil you know” campaign.

Labor’s first campaign advertisement, which began by introducing its leader, is evidence the party understands Albanese is a mystery to many. The hard heads must also understand that’s a big problem six weeks out from polling day. They know the Coalition wants to use the long campaign to frame Albanese as a risk before he defines himself. The trick is not to fall into the obvious trap. Alas, on Monday Albanese wrote his own quotes into the Coalition’s script.

There is a brutal irony in all this. Labor wanted this campaign to be a test of the prime minister’s character. Now, hopefully, it understands by orchestrating this symphony of sledging that its leader has to face the same test. Hopefully the party now also understands that two years of weaponsing scandal means the standard it set in opposition is the one it will be judged by in government.

Even in the contest between the known and the unknown, Albanese can prevail. In the Catholic tradition there is an old concept the Felix cupla, or happy fall. It holds that the sin of Adam at the beginning of the Old Testament was fortunate because it came with the promise of the blessing of redemption in Christ. Albanese has learned an important lesson. What matters now is how he deals with it.

William Penn, the Quaker who founded Pennsylvania, summed up Christ’s journey from Palm Sunday to Easter Sunday in a verse: “No pain, no palm; no thorns, no throne; no gall, no glory; no cross, no crown.”

A crown awaits at the end of this 40 days. But it will be hard won. And whoever wins through this trial will be the better for it. Hopefully, so will the nation.

Jacqueline Maley cuts through the noise of the federal election campaign with news, views and expert analysis. Sign up to our Australia Votes 2022 newsletter here.