Palmer and Hanson’s parties crash out of election despite high hopes and huge spending

Election night was a fizzer for Clive Palmer, whose Trumpet of Patriots party failed to elect anyone despite the mining magnate’s $50 million estimated advertising expenditure, while Coalition hopes that One Nation preferences would help it win seats were dashed.

Opposition Leader Peter Dutton spent much of his last week on the campaign trail claiming he could form government, with conservative sources briefing the media that One Nation could get 10 per cent of the vote that would overwhelmingly flow to the Coalition.

Clive Palmer and Pauline Hanson’s influence on the election wasn’t anywhere near what was expected.Credit: Alex Ellinghausen.

“[That] really reflects the mood that the marginal seat members are reporting back to me at the pre-polling,” Dutton said in an interview with Brisbane radio station 4BC on Tuesday. “I think there are a few surprises coming, and there’s no doubt in my mind that we can win this election.”

But voters had baseball bats rather than bouquets for far-right parties.

Pauline Hanson’s One Nation got 6.15 per cent of first preference votes, as of the count on Sunday, up only slightly from the 5 per cent it received in 2022.

Clive Palmer’s Trumpet of Patriots party was punished for its deliberate association with Donald Trump, claiming just 1.85 per cent of the vote. Palmer’s spokesman bragged he could spend more than $100 million during the campaign, but advertising experts estimated his final expenditure would come in at about $50 million in the final federal election where spending will not be capped.

Speaking at the National Press Club in March, Palmer said that politics was his hobby and he would spend “as much as my wife will let me”.

“At 70, I could join many Australians and play lawn bowls, right? I find this more exciting, talking to you, than playing lawn bowls,” Palmer said.

But the 2025 results represent a big slump from Palmer’s former United Australia Party, which gained 4.1 per cent of the national vote in 2022 after spending more than $120 million, but only managed to install Senator Ralph Babet.

Trumpet of Patriots leader Suellen Wrightson, who appeared in the party’s ubiquitous advertising, failed in her bid to win the NSW seat of Hunter. One Nation senator Malcolm Roberts could lose his Queensland seat at this election, and Hanson’s daughter Lee is only an outside chance to claim a Tasmanian Senate spot. Pauline Hanson remains in the Senate until 2028.

The Coalition under Dutton revoked former Liberal prime minister John Howard’s decision to oppose Pauline Hanson’s fringe views by placing her last on Senate preferences.

The Liberals’ how-to-vote cards this year instructed voters to preference One Nation first in 57 seats, while One Nation gave first preference instructions for the Liberals in about 12 seats. Both parties denied there had been a preference deal.

Resolve director Jim Reed, who conducts polls for this masthead, said the pre-election excitement over One Nation’s influence was not “visible from the primary vote results”.

“Things were being briefed out, including internal polling, saying it’s not as bad as the published polls in marginals,” Reed said. “It was, and then some.”

This masthead’s Resolve Political Monitor predicted that Hanson’s party would receive 7 per cent of the national vote, with the likely final result within the margin of error.

Reed said Trumpet of Patriots’ prospects fell with Australians’ opinions of Donald Trump, after the US president started a global trade war.

“Their strategy may have been OK for a certain portion of the electorate three or four months ago, but they either misread the mood or were unable to change their branding and policy,” he said.

Dutton aped several One Nation policies, including Hanson’s derision of “woke” school curriculums. Dutton said in the second last week of the campaign that he wanted to end “indoctrination”.

“We need to stop the teaching of some of the curriculum that says that our children should be ashamed of being Australian,” he said during a leaders’ debate on Channel Seven.

Then, just days before the election, Dutton said he had no plan to change school curriculums.

Also in the second last week of the campaign, Dutton revved up the culture war over Welcome to Country ceremonies, arguing they were “overdone” at events such as sports matches and on Qantas flights and declaring they should not be part of Anzac Day.

Dutton also took a hardline stance against immigration, called for a boost to fossil fuels, an extension to coal plants and opposed renewable energy.

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