Migrant arrivals are finally dropping. But departures are still a big issue

The largest ever quarterly fall in net overseas migration outside the pandemic has brought population growth down to its lowest rate in 19 months, giving the Albanese government hope it will be able to cut immigration to “manageable levels”.

Amid an ongoing political battle over migrants and population, Australian Bureau of Statistics data on Thursday showed net overseas migration fell to 63,200 in the three months to June 30. This compares to 133,500 in the March quarter and 120,500 in the June quarter last year.

Through the 2023-24 financial year, a net 445,638 migrants moved into the country, exceeding the government’s May budget forecast. Credit: Getty

Through the 2023-24 financial year, a net 445,638 migrants moved into the country, the lowest intake since late 2022.

In the June quarter alone, migrant arrivals fell by 35 per cent while departures from Australia increased by 7.9 per cent. Outside the first stages of the pandemic, when the international border was closed, it was the largest single quarterly fall in net migrants.

Despite the decline, net overseas migration was far higher than the government had expected. It had forecast 395,000 net overseas migrants in 2023-24, falling to 260,000 for the current financial year.

Treasurer Jim Chalmers said the figures confirmed overseas migration was falling and was at its lowest level since the pandemic.

“While departures are taking longer to normalise than forecast at the budget, we’re already starting to see overseas arrivals come down to more manageable levels, and they’ll fall further as more of our policies take effect,” he said.

“We’re taking action to bring migration back to sustainable levels and ensure the system works in the interests of all Australians. If Peter Dutton was interested in reducing migration, he would support our caps on international students instead of opposing them.”

The fall in migrant numbers comes after the government started toughening conditions for international students, but pre-dates other migration restrictions including an increase in the temporary skilled migration income threshold and reducing the age eligibility for temporary graduate visas, which started from July 1.

The figures highlight the government’s difficulty moving migrants on short-term visas out of the country. While annual arrivals were 5300 below the forecast in the May budget, departures were 53,500 lower than expected.

An ongoing issue is international students who stay in the country by moving onto temporary graduate visas, and people on temporary visas claiming asylum or appealing their visa rejections.

Coalition immigration spokesman Dan Tehan emphasised that almost 1 million people had arrived in Australia in two years.

“Labor has again overshot its migration target, this time by an additional 50,600 migrants,” he said.

Tehan pointed to the growing number of people who had been denied refugee status but remained in Australia awaiting deportation – which is 90,000 – as evidence Labor was failing to manage the system.

“Every day that Labor is in charge of immigration, the mess gets bigger and bigger,” he said.

But the opposition is also under pressure to prove its credentials on immigration as the federal election approaches, given it blocked Labor’s bill to limit international student numbers despite originally saying it supported caps.

Opposition Leader Peter Dutton last weekend ditched his pledge to cut net arrivals to 160,000 a year, and is yet to name a new number.

Australia’s total population grew by 552,000 to 27.2 million last financial year, an increase of 2.1 per cent. Every state and territory recorded a slowdown in their rates of population growth through the quarter.

NSW added 19,476 residents in the June quarter, the smallest increase since the December quarter of 2021, taking its population to almost 8.5 million.

Victoria’s population grew by 24,679 in the quarter, the smallest quarterly rise since June 2022, with its population just short of 7 million.

Both states, which take almost 60 per cent of all migrants, recorded fewer than 19,000 net overseas migrants in the quarter for the first time since the international border was re-opened in early 2022.

The fastest growing state in percentage terms remains Western Australia, with its population up by 13,360 in the quarter and 81,400 since the June quarter last year.

The same figures also showed the nation’s fertility rate – the number of children born to a woman over her lifetime – fell to a record low of 1.49.

There were 72,100 births recorded across the country during the quarter, down 0.8 per cent on the same time last year.

For the first time, 8 per cent of Australians, or 2.1 million, are 75 years or older. Australians’ average age is 39.9, the oldest on record, with the average age of people in NSW reaching 40 for the first time.

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