Labor boosts Senate seats, but will still need crossbench to pass laws

Labor could have a clearer path to pass its agenda through the Senate after its landslide election win, but it may still need to work with crossbenchers, as One Nation and Legalise Cannabis could snap up spots in the upper house, election analysts say.

The ALP will gain a senator in Queensland and is expected to pick up another in both South Australia and NSW. There could also be another Labor senator elected in Victoria, though that will take weeks to decide.

Fiona Patten could win a spot in the Senate for Legalise Cannabis in Victoria. She formerly led the Reason Party in the Victorian parliament.Credit: Justin McManus

The government was expected to end up with at least 28 or 29 senators, which would be four more than last term, once preferences are distributed in a convoluted count.

The Senate has 76 seats, meaning a bill needs 39 votes to pass.

The Coalition was expected to land 26 or 27 senators. The Greens were projected to retain their 11 senators.

If this plays out, Labor would be able to pass legislation with support from either just the Greens or the Coalition.

Labor could also turn to independent David Pocock – who has previously worked with Labor on key legislation and was easily re-elected on Saturday – as well as former Labor Fatima Payman and former Greens Lidia Thorpe, neither of whom were up for re-election this term.

Unlike the lower house, where MPs are elected to parliament every three years, senators serve six-year terms – with about half of the Senate up for reelection at every national poll. The exceptions to this rule are senators for ACT and Northern Territory, who face election at the same time and as often as the House of Representatives.

Under the proportional representation system used for upper house elections, senators are elected once they or their party reach 14 per cent of the vote, known as a quota.

Once senators are determined on primary votes, preferences are distributed until enough candidates or parties reach the quota so that all spots have been filled.

In Victoria, Labor received enough votes to make up 2.41 quotas, electing two senators and 0.41 leftover.

Its third candidate, Michelle Ananda-Rajah, has a chance of being elected if enough preferences flow her way. Labor was confident of taking the spot.

But the outcome is not assured, with One Nation’s Warren Pickering and Legalise Cannabis’ Fiona Patten – previously the leader of the Reason Party and the Australian Sex Party – both receiving just over 0.3 of a quota. This keeps them in contention as the preference count rolls on.

The Poll Bludger’s election analyst, William Bowe, said based on current numbers, the final Victorian spot could easily fall to Labor, One Nation or Legalise Cannabis.

Pauline Hanson’s daughter, Lee, is in the running for a Senate spot for One Nation in Tasmania.

Legalise Cannabis has never had representation in the federal parliament, but has had success in the Victorian, NSW and Western Australian parliaments.

Jacqui Lambie is not guaranteed to hold on in Tasmania, with a possible upset from Pauline Hanson’s daughter, Lee Hanson, but Lambie is most likely to benefit from preferences.

Bowe expected the Liberal Party to retain two senators in Tasmania, but Labor has a chance of snaring one of their seats and extending their representation to three in the state.

In NSW, Labor elected two senators on primary votes. Their third candidate, Emilija Beljic, was sitting on a 0.62 quota, with One Nation on 0.42, though Bowe expected Labor to come through.

One Nation’s Malcolm Roberts has 0.5 of a quota in Queensland and is the favourite to hold this spot, but is closely trailed by People First’s Gerard Rennick, Legalise Cannabis’ Belinda Jones and Trumpet of Patriots, whose candidate, Harry Fong, is infamous for authorising the party’s spam text messages.

Trumpet of Patriots backer Clive Palmer told the Daily Telegraph on Sunday he couldn’t see his party winning any seats.

Labor picked up 2.61 of a quota on first preferences in South Australia and 2.42 in Western Australia.

The party could potentially expand its representation to three Senators there, but is up against One Nation, with 0.41 per cent of a quota and Legalise Cannabis at 0.34.

The Coalition’s first preference vote fell just short of two quotas in most states, but it was expected to elect two senators in every state after preferences were counted. They won’t be represented in the ACT, where independent David Pocock has been re-elected and Labor’s Katy Gallagher is likely. Country Liberals’ Jacinta Nampijinpa Price and Labor’s Malarndirri McCarthy are on track in the NT senate race.

Tally Room election analyst Ben Raue said the Senate, where Labor had cobbled together a majority with progressive minor parties and independents in its last term of parliament, was going to have more left wing representatives.

“It looks very progressive, the left is definitely going to gain seats.”

Legalise Cannabis and One Nation had decent outings across multiple states, recording some of the best first preference counts among minor parties after the Greens.

Final results will not be known for weeks.

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