‘It’s just a matter of when’: Australia war-gaming deadly bird flu outbreak

The spring migration of birds from Antarctica to Australia could soon bring a deadly virus that wipes out entire species of native birds and marine mammals, which is why the Commonwealth is war-gaming its biosecurity response to potential wildlife carnage.

Scientists say it is inevitable the virus will come to Australia – the only continent free of the particularly virulent h5N1 strain of bird flu that has killed millions of birds around the world and tens of thousands of at-risk mammals.

Australian governments, industry and experts will run a war gaming operation to prepare for an outbreak of the H5N1 bird flu. Credit: John Skuja.

Biosecurity agencies, environmental authorities and industry groups will leap into action at news of a simulated virus outbreak, enacting plans to slow the spread of the virus and shield at risk animals like black swans and sea lions.

Dubbed Exercise Volare, the fictitious scenario starts with an outbreak among the multitudes of birds in the Coorong wetlands near the mouth of the Murray River in South Australia, which then spreads to the sea lions on Kangaroo Island.

Australia’s black swans are particularly susceptible to the virus and studies show they could be made extinct in an outbreak. Officials have also warned it could wipe out the 12,000 Australian sea lions left on the planet.

When the virus hit South America, it claimed 30,000 sea lions and 18,000 southern elephant seal pups, while half of Peru’s pelicans were dead within a few months of its arrival.

“We are very concerned about the impact this disease could have on our native wildlife, vulnerable threatened species and broader environment and on our agricultural systems, including on production and trade,” says Agriculture Minister Julie Collins.

University of Melbourne senior research fellow at the Centre for Pathogen Genomics Michelle Wille told this masthead in July that the virus had made it to every continent including Antarctica, and it will inevitably arrive here.

“It’s just a matter of when it’s going to arrive,” Wille says.

The risk to human health remains low and the people most likely to be infected are livestock and poultry workers, federal Health Minister Mark Butler says. Vaccines are available for those who contract the virus.

“The interim Australian Centre for Disease Control is working very closely with other Commonwealth, state and territory agencies to ensure Australia is as prepared as possible for any potential case of the H5N1 strain,” Butler says.

Thousands of volunteers, researchers and public servants have already been deployed into the real world to look out for dead birds and take biological samples from migratory species that may have carried the virus to our shores.

In the case of an outbreak, wildlife cannot be treated once infected with the H5N1 virus, but the spread can be limited by swift responses such as picking up carcasses of infected animals, preventing farmed poultry from mixing with wild birds, and not feeding wild birds.

There may also be potential to shield endangered species, for example by taking some of those most at risk into captivity to ensure species survival.

Invasive Species Council policy analyst Carol Booth says war-gaming biosecurity incursions is common for primary industries, like foot and mouth disease in livestock, but has never before been applied to an environment scenario like wild birds with the H5N1 strain of bird flu.

“The government commissioned a risk assessment of this virus, which came up with the rating of potential catastrophic impact. That’s a fair description of the impacts elsewhere,” Booth says.

The Albanese government allocated $7 million to prepare for an H5N1 incursion, largely drawn from existing funds. Environmental advocates are calling for a massive funding boost to increase the ground effort to help stop the spread in case of an outbreak, and reduce the impacts on wildlife.

“There’s been very little funding for the wildlife side of it so far. You can’t do a lot without an extra injection of funding,” Booth says.

Australian Marine Conservation Society campaigner Alexia Wellbelove says Australian sea lions, an endangered species, are particularly vulnerable to bird flu because they live in one location their entire life.

“If you lose any individuals, you’re losing a significant genetic diversity in the population,” Wellbelove says.

“It’s not just Australian sea lions, there’s other seals, seabirds and marine species.”

Get to the heart of what’s happening with climate change and the environment. Sign up for our fortnightly Environment newsletter.