Fewer migrants, more departures: Australia’s population growth hits lowest level in years

A drop in migrants coming into Australia and an increase in the number of people leaving the country has helped bring the nation’s population growth down to its lowest level in two years.

As new figures suggest the jobs market is softening, giving the Reserve Bank more confidence for further interest rate cuts, data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics suggest the federal government’s efforts to bring down burgeoning population growth are starting to work.

Departures from Australia are growing just as migrant numbers are falling.Credit: Scott McNaughton

The nation’s population grew by 1.8 per cent in the 12 months to September last year. The country added 484,000 residents over that period, the smallest number since the September quarter of 2022.

Australia is home to 27.3 million people.

The slower growth was caused by a step-down in net overseas migrants which added 89,806 people to the country. It was the smallest September quarter result since 2021, when the country still had travel restrictions in place, and was down 38 per cent year-on-year.

Over the past year, incoming migrant numbers have fallen by 22 per cent while the number of people leaving has risen by 22 per cent.

For the June and September quarters, a total 274,500 migrants came into Australia, a 25 per cent fall on the record 366,500 set for the same period in 2023. The 2024 result is now lower than the pre-pandemic record of 289,000 set in 2019.

In his mid-year budget update, Treasurer Jim Chalmers revised up the government’s expectations for net overseas migration by 80,000 to 340,000 for the 2024-25 financial year. That is then forecast to fall to 260,000 in the coming financial year.

Natural population growth – births minus deaths – added 25,211 people in the quarter. Deaths, traditionally high in the September quarter, increased to 51,600, the second-highest quarter on record.

Though births increased marginally in the quarter, the crude birth rate – the number of children born per 1000 people – continues to fall and remains at record lows.

UBS economists noted the figures, while showing a slowdown, confirmed that population growth was “still relatively fast compared to history and global trends”.

Western Australia remains the fastest growing state at 2.5 per cent over the past year, with its population just short of 3 million.

Victoria’s population growth slowed to 2.1 per cent, with the state home to more than 7 million people for the first time. During the depths of the pandemic, Victoria lost more than 35,600 residents to other parts of the Commonwealth, but this has turned around, the state adding 882 residents from other states and territories over the past 12 months.

NSW’s population went past 8.5 million, its growth rate easing to 1.4 per cent. It lost 29,505 people to other states and territories, while Queensland’s population has grown to 5.6 million in part due to an extra 28,201 people from the rest of the nation.

Population growth, and its pressure on the housing market and infrastructure, will be a key part of the coming election campaign as both sides of politics promise to slow the number of migrants.

Opposition Leader Peter Dutton on Thursday repeated the Coalition would bring net overseas migration down to 140,000 annually for its first two years in office and then gradually increase that as housing stock became available.

“We’re a great country because of migration, and we should celebrate more the migrant story in this country, but the way in which the government’s done it, they see political advantage in doing it, and it is impacting on not just housing but as people know it’s [also] the services,” he told radio station 2GB.

Separate figures from the bureau of statistics suggest the long-awaited slowdown in the jobs market may be occurring.

While unemployment in February was steady at 4.1 per cent, the total number of people in work fell by 52,800. The biggest fall in percentage terms was in Tasmania, where there was a 3 per cent drop, while NSW suffered a 22,800 decline in total jobs.

Only a sharp fall in the participation rate, which measures those in work or looking for it, prevented a steep rise in the jobless rate.

The bureau said part of the reason for the fall in jobs was “fewer older workers returning to work in February”.

The Reserve Bank has repeatedly noted the strength of the jobs market and its impact on inflation as a key factor in its outlook for interest rates. But the new figures reduced annual job growth from 3.2 per cent in January to 1.9 per cent.

Over the first two months of the year, total employment is down by more than 22,000 positions.

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