Election battlelines are being drawn – and not by Albanese

One of the interesting facts about Scott Morrison’s period as prime minister is that he managed to squander public approval twice. The second came via a long, protracted slide through most of the pandemic. But his popularity had sunk as low – and much, much faster, at least in Newspoll surveys – just a few months after his 2019 election victory.

The main event involved was that summer’s bushfires. His trip to Hawaii is the symbol of that failure, but the actual problems were long and drawn out. There was the slowness to act and the failure to meet with emergency leaders, the mangled handshakes, “I don’t hold a hose” and the sidestepping of the climate debate.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Opposition Leader Peter Dutton are neck and neck in opinion polls.Credit: Alex Ellinghausen

The political ramifications of a natural disaster are the least important thing about it. I recount this because it’s always worth keeping in mind, in politics, how quickly things can change. Also: how dominant a crisis can be. Morrison’s disastrous summer, in fact, was only really rescued by the advent of another crisis – the early part of the pandemic, when his numbers soared – before that crisis, too, destroyed him.

Recent weeks have seen at least two significant shifts, with another at least possible.

For a long time, it seemed the Albanese government would get a rate cut – even two – before the election. As I wrote a few weeks back, this had the potential to act as a tangible affirmation of its economic strategy, the other elements of which – wage growth and job creation – had been lining up nicely. Last week, Westpac joined NAB in predicting the next rate cut would come on May 20 – three days after the last possible date for the election.

The government now has to hope voters’ moods improve without that rate cut. It’s possible. The Guardian’s Essential poll last week found a small fall in people who say they’re struggling. There was a small but notable shift in one of the more interesting indicators: whether people believe the country is on the right track. It’s too early to spot a trend, and more people disagree than agree – but the “right direction” figure was (just) the highest it’s been since May 2023.

Illustration by Joe BenkeCredit:

The second change is the victory of Donald Trump. There are signs – like his retreat from the nomination of Matt Gaetz as attorney-general – that Trump’s term may be as bizarre as his first. One veteran observer suggested to me some time ago that a Trump victory may play into Albanese’s slow-and-steady approach: that in an era of messiness, boredom becomes appealing. At present, though, the opposite is the case. Last week, a Freshwater Strategy poll in The Australian Financial Review found 36 per cent of voters believed Albanese was best placed to deal with Trump – against 47 per cent who favoured Dutton.

Finally, we should all hope this is a quiet season for natural disasters. Recent weeks have reminded us, this can’t be taken for granted. There have been bushfires in Queensland, the ABC reporting that amid the smoke last month Mount Isa was briefly “the most polluted city in the world”. There were evacuations in response to fires in Victoria (arson seems to have played a role in several of these).

How bushfires might affect the political situation would depend, to a great extent, on the prime minister’s response. Major conclusions drawn this close to a poll would be about him personally. How Albanese handled the question of climate change would be significant. (That same Essential poll found only half of voters believe hotter summers are the result of climate change.)

But what would also move into the spotlight would be the continuing climate change splits within the opposition. Here we come to another recent shift, one that is sharpening the political contest.

At the beginning of this term, it seemed Peter Dutton wanted to oppose most things: he had not yet learnt the fine art of picking his battles. In recent months, he has avoided fights on some key issues: aged care, disabilities and social media. Even his apparently “bold” foray on nuclear energy, as I’ve argued before, is best understood in this context: wanting to avoid a battle, either within his party or with Labor, over whether climate change action is necessary.

Yet Dutton has picked a very specific fight: he will oppose Labor’s bill to bring down international student numbers – even though he has long suggested that’s his aim too. As journalist Bernard Keane observed, this mirrors Donald Trump’s successful move to block an immigration bill to keep the problem alive. This is of a piece with Dutton’s earlier decisions to make Labor’s life difficult on immigration detention bills. Dutton has learnt to use the parliament to narrow the political contest to his preferred issues, with immigration top of the list.

With that in mind, it will be interesting to see what happens when Labor finally announces its universal childcare policy. Labor is hoping for significant political credit. But what if Dutton simply agrees?

Meanwhile, there are some fights the nation should be having but isn’t. Bill Shorten, farewelling parliament last week, pointed out “our system still taxes property preferentially and lightly – and income heavily”. Centre for Public Integrity chair Anthony Whealy pointed out that the government and opposition seem to have reached an agreement, funnily enough, on donations changes that don’t do enough about money in politics while also giving the major parties advantages over independents.

As Albanese told Sky News, “We’ve already chosen our slogan, as you know, ‘building Australia’s future’.” Dutton seems to have chosen his issues, too. Given how much has changed in the past few weeks, and how much might still change in the months before polling day, both men would be wise to keep their options open.

Sean Kelly is author of The Game: A Portrait of Scott Morrison, a regular columnist and a former adviser to Julia Gillard and Kevin Rudd.

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