Dutton must target backpackers to deliver promised cuts to migration

Surging numbers of working holidaymakers must be drastically curtailed for Opposition Leader Peter Dutton to achieve his promise of driving down overall migration as the number of backpackers with working visas hits 225,000 for the first time.

A Coalition government would also turn away accountants, IT professionals and engineers after immigration spokesman Dan Tehan on Thursday signalled the opposition would direct all 45,000 of its cuts to permanent migration towards Australia’s skilled migrant intake, not family visas.

Immigration levels are higher than the government forecasts.Credit: Marija Ercegovac

Details of the opposition’s immigration plans are being gradually unveiled as Dutton and Tehan face questions over their pledge to lower migration in the lead-up to the May election. But their task has become more ambitious as they rule out cuts to several swathes of the migration program, including visas for partners, parents, tradies, chefs and nurses.

After immigration forecasts blew out each year and surged to record highs under Labor, the Coalition has been campaigning on delivering deeper cuts. It wants to slash the permanent migration intake, which covers skilled migrant and family visas, from 185,000 to 140,000 in its first year of government.

It also promises to cut net overseas migration, which counts the number of arrivals, minus departures, each year, by 100,000 more people than Labor.

But immigration expert Abul Rizvi, a former department deputy secretary, said the Coalition was not yet close to achieving those goals. “We’ve got record numbers of students, temporary graduates, working holidaymakers, skilled temporary entrants and asylum seekers,” he said.

“[The Coalition] have talked about the first two, but not said much about the other three. If you want to get to [those targets], you can’t do it any other way than to tighten just about everywhere.”

On international students – the biggest drivers of net overseas migration – the Coalition has promised to cut 30,000 more places than Labor planned. It will also reduce the humanitarian intake from 20,000 to 13,750 places – 6250 fewer migrants – while reviewing visas for recent graduates, which would eventually expedite departures.

Dutton has not specified which other parts of the system he would cut. “We’ll take that advice when we get into government in relation to where the economic settings are and where the demands might be,” he said this week.

But Rizvi said culling soaring numbers of working holidaymakers would be unavoidable if the Coalition was to cut net migration by 100,000 more places than the government.

Peter Dutton on the campaign trail on Thursday.Credit: James Brickwood

There were 226,510 working holidaymakers in Australia at the end of February – an increase of 43,000 compared to March 2024, and 90,000 more than March 2023. British backpackers are driving the surge.

“Working holidaymakers are the second-biggest contributors to net overseas migration. They’re going to have to do something about that,” Rizvi said.

“We’ve got a very generous working holidaymaker program now: the age limit was pushed from 30 to 35 for many countries; the UK now gets an automatic three-year visa. The length of time they’re staying is getting longer and longer.”

But Rizvi said Dutton would face two political challenges if he cut backpackers’ visas. “First, you have to renegotiate agreements with every country. Secondly, the tightening would be strongly resisted by the tourism industry, regional Australia and the Nationals.”

The second part of the Coalition’s policy reduces permanent migration numbers. The government’s program allows 132,200 places in the skilled migrant stream and 52,500 places in the family stream.

Tehan told the ABC’s Radio National on Thursday that the Coalition had ruled out changing the family stream, which covers partner, parent and child visas. “We’re not targeting family visas,” Tehan said.

This forces the Coalition to deliver all 45,000 of its promised cuts to skilled migration, which would lower the intake to 87,200 and abandon the Howard-era principle that stipulates two-thirds of the permanent migration program should be from the skilled stream.

Asked whether this could backfire given Australia’s skills shortage, Tehan said important areas – workers in trades, health, aged care and hospitality – would be prioritised.

He said the Coalition wanted to bring in more aged care workers and tradies, given fewer than 10,000 tradespeople were in the skilled migrant intake last year.

“We want to prioritise those trades areas, to complement our plumbers, our electricians, our builders,” he said.

“In terms of hospitality, where we need chefs and cooks, we’ll look at prioritising those areas.”

Nurses are the largest professional group in the skilled migrant stream, followed by accountants, software programmers and chefs.

Given the Coalition will prioritise visas for nurses and chefs, the biggest groups that would be hit by cuts to the program are accountants, IT professionals and engineers.

Rizvi said businesses, regions and state governments that sponsor many skilled migrants would resist such cuts. It would also hurt the budget.

“The skilled stream pays more in tax revenue than they take out in health, education and other benefits. Treasury will have to put a number to that,” he said.

Tehan’s office was contacted for further comment.

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