Dunkley byelection LIVE updates: Labor retains Victorian seat of Dunkley, despite swing to Liberals

That’s all from us tonight. Thank you for joining as we covered the Dunkley byelection.

Successful candidate for Dunkley Jodie Belyea celebrates at the Frankston Bowling Club with her family and Labor MP Richard Marles.Credit: Luis Enrique Ascui

Here’s a summary of what happened tonight:

• As of 10.20pm, Labor’s Jodie Belyea won the seat of Dunkley with 52.8 per cent of the two candidate preferred vote.
• The Liberal Party’s Nathan Conroy had 47.2 per cent with a 4 per cent swing toward his party.
• During Belyea’s speech, she promised to be a “strong, passionate, local voice for Dunkley” as she is “Frankston tough”.
• Conroy spoke of a positive campaign and despite not getting the seat, celebrates a big swing while announcing he lost 15 kilograms and that his wife is pregnant with their second child.
• Prime Minister Anthony Albanese posted to X on his congratulations to Belyea for her win, while deputy opposition leader Sussan Ley posted it was a “terrible result” for Labor.

Thank you for joining us and goodnight.

Belyea casting her vote with son Flynn on Saturday.Credit: Penny Stephens

Deputy opposition leader Sussan Ley has said the result in Dunkley was “terrible” for Prime Minister Anthony Albanese.

In a post to X, Ley wrote the people of Dunkley have sent Albanese a “strong message and it’s not ‘happy birthday’, it’s ‘do something about the cost of living crisis’.”

“A swing of this size at the next election would see us win 11 seats from Labor. This is a terrible result for the Prime Minister,” she wrote.

Labor’s Jodie Belyea says it was “very surreal” when she spoke with Peta Murphy, who died in December last year, about potentially needing to run for her seat.

Speaking to Sky News, Belyea said she was thrilled to have won the Dunkley seat and it had been in the back of her mind she may run for the seat after her conversation with Murphy.

“It was one of those conversations that I had and it was a very surreal conversation because it was wrapped around someone potentially not being here, but I had it in the back of my mind since that conversation and continue to do everything I could in the background to work towards that,” she said.

Successful candidate for Dunkley Jodie Belyea celebrates with a hug.Credit: Luis Ascui

Belyea said Prime Minister Anthony Albanese was thrilled by her win and that she successfully gave him his birthday wish to win the byelection.

“He was thrilled and very thankful for the effort by me and the team and yeah we’re going to push ahead,” she said.

Victorian Premier Jacinta Allan has tweeted her congratulations to Labor’s Jodie Belyea alongside a number of Labor MPs.

Allan writes that Belyea is a “fitting successor to the remarkable Peta Murphy”.

Treasurer Jim Chalmers, Finance Minister Katy Gallagher, Government Services Minister Bill Shorten, Attorney General Mark Dreyfus and Energy Minister Chris Bowen are among the Labor politicians posting their congratulations to Belyea.

Chief political correspondent for this masthead David Crowe has given his take on the Dunkley byelection result.

The spin from both sides has been shameless.

“People say that the swing of 2 or 3 per cent would be a devastating outcome for the prime minister because that would be without historical precedent,” said Dutton on Friday. Wrong.

“The average swing against government is 7.1 per cent,” said Albanese on Friday. Wrong.

The ABC’s chief election analyst Antony Green says the average swing against governments in byelections since federation is a little under 4 per cent. When Green looks at results since 1983, he calculates the average swing is 3.5 per cent.

The outcome on Saturday was, in a word, average. And Dutton needs to be better than average.

Labor held ground on its primary vote. The Liberals made a modest gain. And there was no proof that Dutton has the strategy in the suburbs to clinch the next election.

Read the full analysis here.

While the byelection has been called, counting still continues in the electorate.

As of 9.45pm, the ABC reports the Labor Party’s Jodie Belyea has 52.7 per cent of the two party preference count while the Liberal Party’s Nathan Conroy has 47.3 per cent.

Belyea currently leads on 2816 votes. The overall swing is at 3.9 per cent to the Liberal Party.

Thirty-five of the 36 centres are reporting primaries while 33 of 36 are reporting a preference count.

On the preferences for all parties, Belyea has 41 per cent of the vote while Conroy has 38.9 per cent and the Greens Party’s Alex Breskin has 6.5 per cent.

Almost 71 per cent of votes have been counted.

Speaking before the party room, Labor’s Jodie Belyea says she is going to be a strong local voice in Canberra while paying tribute to the late Peta Murphy.

“I’m going to be your member for Dunkley,” she said to cheers. “I am not a career politician. I’m someone who wants to make a difference for this great community and further afield. And I’m now going to be your strong local voice in Canberra.

“I said I would be a strong, passionate local voice for Dunkley and that is exactly what I will do, because I am Frankston tough.”

Labor’s Jodie Belyea.Credit: Jason South

Belyea said she was humbled to follow in the footsteps of the late Peta Murphy. “In December last year, we lost our dear friend Peta Murphy. Peta was a fierce advocate for our community, and we miss her every day.

“I need to shout out to Rod Glover [Murphy’s husband] for his support this few months to get me through and to support me to be here today,” she said.

Glover has been at Labor’s event tonight in support of Belyea.

The Labor Party’s Jodie Belyea has entered the party room to many hugs and tears after winning the seat of Dunkley.

Deputy Prime Minister Richard Marles introduces Belyea, saying everyone in the room has a right to feel incredibly proud on all that Belyea has achieved.

“On behalf of the government, and on behalf of the Australian Labor Party as it sits everywhere around the country, I want to thank every person today who handed out on a polling booth, who scrutineered a vote, who helped during this campaign,” he said.

“The primary vote is where it is today, is an enormous credit to Jodie Belyea. Peta Murphy was a deeply popular person across the country here in Dunkley and to have seen the primary vote maintained the way Jodie has done it is everything.

“Tonight is a big night for our Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, who took every opportunity to be here at every moment that he could during this campaign.”

Albanese has also posted to X his congratulations to Belyea on her win.

The Liberal candidate Nathan Conroy has spoken of a positive campaign and despite not getting the seat, celebrates a big swing while announcing he lost 15 kilograms and that his wife is pregnant with their second child.

Speaking to loud cheers – the loudest being when he announced his wife’s pregnancy – Conroy thanked all those who supported his campaign.

Liberal candidate Nathan Conroy concedes defeat.Credit: Nine News

“The three good things that came from this campaign is I got to meet thousands of my community and listen and talk to as many people as possible to learn exactly what the challenges they’re facing,” he said.

“The second is that I lost 15 kilos … The last one is the best news, just before I came up on the stage, my wife whispered in my ear that we are having our second child!”

Deputy opposition leader Sussan Ley says it’s not a happy birthday for Prime Minister Anthony Albanese as there has been a swing against the government.

Speaking to the party room before Conroy, Ley said the message is clear that the people of Dunkley are frustrated with the government.

“It’s not happy birthday, it’s ‘do something about the cost of living crisis’. That’s the message the ...people of Dunkley have sent to this Prime Minister. You know the average swing in a by-election against a first term government is 1.5 per cent. Nathan Conroy has doubled, maybe even tripled that today,” she said.

“We’re just getting started. We are coming after you in Aston. In Higgins. In McEwen. In my home state of New South Wales. I’m just over the border. We are coming after you in Parramatta.”

Deputy Opposition Leader Sussan Ley.Credit: Alex Ellinghausen