Coalition’s primary problem: how to stop the teal

One number is now keeping major party leaders and their confidants awake at night: 76.

That is the bare minimum needed to form majority government in the 151 seat House of Representatives. It is the number the Coalition currently commands. And, right now, all the public polls show neither major party has electoral support to hit it.

“Teal” independents Allegra Spender, Zoe Daniel, Kylea Tink, Sophie Scamps and Kate Chaney.Credit: Jessica Hromas, Elke Meitzel, Wolter Peeters, Nick Moir, Tony McDonough

Unless something changes, a hung parliament is the most likely outcome of this election. The primary vote of the major parties tells a story of deeply disillusioned voters left with a Hobson’s choice between a man they do not like and one they barely know.

In 2019, the Coalition won 77 seats with a primary vote of 41.4 per cent and Labor scored an abysmal 33.3 per cent to return 68 MPs. Public polls now show Labor has improved its position to sit somewhere between 35-37 per cent and the Coalition’s primary has collapsed to at, or below, 35 per cent.

Labor has been losing skin off its primary, on and off, since the turn of the millennium, as the rise of the Greens ate away at its left flank. It dipped below 38 in 2001 and 2004 before surging to 43.4 per cent on the back of the enthusiasm generated by the Kevin 07 campaign. But since then, it has been in steady decline and, in 2019, hit its lowest point since 1934. In the last hung parliament in 2010, Labor’s primary was 38 per cent and that’s where the polls tell us the party sits now.

Independent Dr Monique Ryan is trying to unseat Treasurer Josh Frydenberg in the seat of Kooyong.Credit: AFR

The Coalition could be about to deliver a historically bad result. The last time the combined Liberal and National Party primary fell below 40 per cent was in 1946. John Howard lost the 2007 election with a primary of 42.1 per cent. Conventional wisdom commands that the Coalition cannot win if it does not post a number with a four in front of it.

But these are unconventional times, and the crucial question is how the preferences fall.

Voters decide who gets their preferences, not parties. But history shows that the most disciplined flow is from the Greens to Labor. Antony Green’s research on the 2019 result confirms that more than 80 per cent of Greens voters put a two in the Labor column.

With the Greens primary at, or above, 10 per cent Labor appears in the best shape to form government because minor party preferences flow to the Coalition at a lower rate.

And there is a smorgasbord on offer for disaffected Coalition voters on the left and right. Clive Palmer’s billions have bought roughly 3 per cent of the primary and Pauline Hanson’s One Nation commands a similar number. In 2019, both delivered 65 per cent of their second preferences to the Coalition and 35 per cent to Labor.

The late Ted Mack, running as an independent, won the seat of North Sydney from Liberal incumbent John Spender in 1990. Spender’s daughter Allegra is running as an independent in the seat of Wentworth.Credit: Craig Golding

But a new and very dangerous threat has arisen on the Coalition’s left, with the “teal” independents. There is every chance that in NSW, North Sydney and Wentworth could fall. Both seats have been held by independents in the near, and not so distant, past.

The father of independents, Ted Mack, won North Sydney in 1990; the first time it had been taken from the conservatives since Federation. He held it until he retired from federal politics in 1996. When Malcolm Turnbull was deposed in a party room coup and left politics in October 2018, his seat of Wentworth fell to independent Kerryn Phelps.

But if Liberal seats fall to teal independents in Victoria, it will make history. There is every chance that Treasurer Josh Frydenberg could lose the seat of Kooyong, which has been held by the conservative side of politics since Federation. Goldstein’s history is less storied but since it was formed as a federal seat in 1984 it has been held by the Liberals.

The growing problem for all inner-city Liberals is that they must aim to win their seats on primary votes alone because there are very few conservative preferences to be harvested. If the Liberal primary drops below 45 per cent and an independent gathers 35 per cent, then there is every chance the contender will beat the incumbent to 50 per cent on the back of Green and Labor preferences.

This explains why moderate Liberals were so spooked by the controversial comments about transgender people made by Liberal candidate for Warringah, Katherine Deves. In a tight race everything matters, and, despite the public confidence, all the Liberal incumbents are spooked.

But here is the risk. If the moderate Liberals hold on, outside the inner-city bubble the media campaign against Deves is being received very badly. In the suburbs and the regions, the vast majority are in her camp. As one Labor strategist said, “this is not a 60/40 split, it’s 90/10 in Deves’ favour”. That could push more preferences from One Nation and United Australia back into the Coalition’s column.

Imagine that. If the moral outrage of the constantly offended elite unwittingly delivered Scott Morrison victory. Be careful what you wish for.

Cut through the noise of the federal election campaign with news, views and expert analysis from Jacqueline Maley. Sign up to our Australia Votes 2022 newsletter here.