Blackout risk: State on alert due to hot weather, coal plant outages

The energy market operator has warned of an elevated risk of blackouts across NSW as a week of hot weather approaches, exposing weaknesses in the grid’s reliability as Labor and the Coalition escalate their climate wars.

Expected higher electricity demand as temperatures soar will be exacerbated by four of the 12 power-generation units at the state’s ageing coal-fired plants being offline due to maintenance and breakdowns.

With temperatures forecast to remain at or above 30 degrees for three days, this could leave the grid short on power in parts of NSW and Queensland when residents switch on air-conditioning, particularly in the afternoons and evenings.

The Australian Energy Market Operator’s (AEMO) blackout risk warnings kick in from Tuesday afternoon and are set to remain in place until Friday.

AEMO is aiming to boost electricity supply by reinstating several transmission lines that were off for maintenance and potentially bringing coal units back online.

“AEMO remains focused on maintaining electricity reliability in both NSW and Queensland this week, as high temperatures are expected to drive strong energy demand amid significant generation unavailability in NSW,” an AEMO spokesman said.

“If electricity supply forecasts deteriorate, AEMO will take all necessary measures, including the activation of off-market reserves, to ensure supply reliability.”

The latest warning comes as the government and Coalition brawl over their conflicting plans for the energy grid ahead of the election due by May.

Doubling the proportion of renewables to reach 82 per cent of the grid by 2030 is a key measure of the government’s pledge to cut emissions by 43 per cent by the end of the decade.

Hot weather and coal plant outages are combining to raise the risk of blackouts in NSW. Credit: Nine.

However, delays to wind and solar farm approvals and landholder objections to the transmission lines needed to link them to population centres have plagued the government’s plans, and many experts now question whether the government can meet its renewables deadline.

Energy bills have spiked over the past three years, due largely to the high cost of gas, but Opposition Leader Peter Dutton has blamed the government’s “all-eggs-in-one-basket renewables-only scheme”.

The Coalition attacked Prime Minister Anthony Albanese in parliament on Monday over his promise before the last election to cut power bills by $275 by 2025 with his renewable rollout.

“The reason why the world is transitioning to clean energy is because they understand not only is that good for the environment, it is also good for their economies, and that is why Australia is a part of that global transition,” Albanese said.

Dutton has declared that if elected, he would overturn Australia’s ban on nuclear energy and build seven plants across the country, starting in 2040.

Opposition energy spokesman Ted O’Brien has dubbed this a “coal-to-nuclear” transition, which he said would incorporate all forms of generation, including gas and renewables.

“Australia is on the brink of a full-blown energy crisis, with households paying some of the highest electricity bills in the world for increasingly unreliable power,” O’Brien said on Monday.

The NSW government cut a deal in May with Origin Energy, the owner of the massive Eraring coal plant, to keep it running until at least 2027 because delays in the rollout of new energy infrastructure had left the state too vulnerable to power supply shortfalls.

Coal currently supplies about 60 per cent of the grid’s electricity, but companies are bringing forward plant closure dates as they become less reliable and competitive against cheaper renewables. AEMO expects 90 per cent of plants to shut within 10 years.

Coal power woes have been compounded by the slow rollout of renewable energy, needed to replace the ageing fossil fuel generators, and early starts to hot summer weather under global warming.

Traditionally, coal plants could safely shut units for maintenance during the so-called shoulder season, wedged between periods of high use for heating in winter and cooling in summer, when mild weather was expected and energy demand was moderate and predictable.

Grattan Institute energy and climate change deputy program director Alison Reeve said the government’s policy was not on track to meet its deadline, while global warming was making it harder for AEMO to manage the increasing maintenance schedule of coal plants.

“The pace of the renewables rollout isn’t going fast enough for coal to exit at the time that the people who own it want to shut it down,” Reeve said.

“[And] the point in time where people can do maintenance is actually getting smaller and that’s an unhappy impact of climate change on top of everything else.”

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