AUKUS is unhinged from reality. Australia will only ever be a pitstop for nuclear subs

The closest Australia will ever get to nuclear-powered submarines, or SSNs, under the AUKUS initiative is the rotational basing of US and British subs out of Western Australia. Indeed, this limited ambition should be the extent of the AUKUS plan to deliver an SSN capability to Australia. SSNs from Australia, not for.

The current AUKUS plan is unhinged from reality. This convoluted pathway sees Australia operating three different classes of boat in the 2040s – our trusty diesel-electric Collins, alongside the US Virginia boats as a stop-gap solution, before receiving the mythical SSN-AUKUS.

Pit-stop: a US nuclear-powered submarine docks at Rockingham, Western Australia, in March this year. Credit: US Navy

The known “unknowns” of the AUKUS submarine plan are well known (and debated). From workforce and industrial-base challenges to fiscal considerations, the challenges posed are evident. Seriously acknowledging them is by no means reflective of a naysayer agenda.

Australia’s contribution to the AUKUS endeavour as related to SSNs should be associated with unlocking its latent “pitstop” power. Canberra’s central contribution sits around Australia’s geography – our ability to base, sustain and maintain SSNs. Australia has a technically savvy workforce, receptive and capable of this mission, and industry is making immediate progress to set us up to do so.

We are forgoing investment in our defence base elsewhere (and more immediately) on a plan that hinges on the longevity of political commitment across three different nations, over many decades. There is a point at which risk can simply not be mitigated.

Deepening and broadening Australia’s service, sustainment and hosting capabilities for allied SSNs is an achievable mission. The US gains more boats on station closer to any (likely) action and the UK cements its “Global Britain” ambition. Canberra gains from the added deterrent value, of course, but also from the rebirth of its maritime industry.

Despite overtures of joining a special and privileged club, the fact remains that Washington has no plans to ever operate the SSN-AUKUS. From the outset, the US has reiterated plans to go it alone for its future submarine, the SSN-X. Odd, given the SSN-AUKUS and the SSN-X would likely share the same propulsion technology and weapons systems. Alas, self-interest is hard to silence. Australia, too, must reflect on its own self-interest.

AUKUS is a good endeavour and in many ways a natural extension of trilateral ties. The AUKUS edge lies in its potential to accelerate technological effort by pooling knowledge and capacity. AUKUS is about much more than boats and yet it has been socialised as solely about them. The real potential and promise – for the Indo-Pacific writ large – is the development of advanced technologies and creation of a competitive technology lattice with like-minded states.

It is high time for some honesty in the AUKUS narrative – specific to SSNs. What we have now is an overly optimistic and out-of-touch plan to arm Australia with a capability she does not necessarily require.

We are not too far down the pathway to correct our course. Australian funds sunk into the US and UK shipbuilding sector are long gone. But failing to opt for a smarter approach to our defence toolkit will cost us even more.

The government decision to treat the Australian public as disinterested collateral in AUKUS discourse is plainly offensive. Just take the AUKUS agreement tabled in parliament this week. Touted for political points as a “significant milestone”, the agreement inked was merely putting pen to paper over what was already agreed: setting up Australia to build, operate and maintain a nuclear-powered submarine capability.

An Australian capacity to maintain SSNs and perhaps operate a few is a manageable end-goal for our nation. The notion of us building SSNs would be funny if there wasn’t so much at stake. Australia should free-ride off allied SSN presence, invest for the nearer-term in long-range strike capabilities and, quite simply, divert AUKUS boat funds to research and development into future defence capabilities. Government needs to stop fighting the last war.

A smarter way to bolster deterrence capacity via an enhanced allied SSN footprint is simply to monopolise Australia’s geography. To use it. Drop the trimmings, the ambitious SSN-AUKUS plan, and recalibrate expectations. After all, the next US president might opt for a better deal. Driven by self-interest, of course.

Dr Elizabeth Buchanan is senior fellow at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute and a project director at the Modern War Institute at West Point Military Academy. She is a former Australian Department of Defence official. @BuchananLiz