Albanese slips up but Dutton picks the wrong fight

Peter Dutton is staying true to his brand as the hard man of Australian politics by telling voters he wants to make the ABC more efficient, stop the “woke” agenda in schools and cut the education and health departments in Canberra.

This is red meat for the conservative base. But will it win him the election? The opposition leader has rammed his flag into a political hill the Liberal faithful dearly want to own. But in the battle for power in 2025, it is the wrong hill.

Opposition leader Peter Dutton in the electorate of Hawke in Melbourne on Wednesday. Credit: James Brickwood

Anthony Albanese, meanwhile, has shown an occasional tetchiness that can undercut his attempt to present a positive agenda for the next three years. The prime minister also made a gaffe earlier this week when trying to rule out a deal with the Greens on forming government.

The difference between the two leaders is that some mistakes are quickly forgotten while others shape the campaign. Albanese has had some patchy moments in his press conferences, but he is positioned where he needs to be – and Dutton is exposed.

The challenge for Dutton was made plain on Wednesday when he took a firmer line against United States President Donald Trump.

“If I needed to have a fight with Donald Trump or any other world leader to advance our nation’s interests, I’d do it in a heartbeat,” he said.

This was a big giveaway: Dutton is trying to distance himself from Trump because some of his policies seem to borrow from Trump. He stands side by side with Trump in the culture wars just when the tariff wars break out.

Albanese moved on Wednesday to take a stand on household income by saying the minimum wage should rise in real terms, repeating a similar move he made in the 2022 campaign. He also points to falling inflation and low unemployment. And he offers the personal income tax cut in last week’s budget.

Labor is on the defensive on the cost of living after the erosion in household incomes over the past three years. Albanese tackles this by going on the offensive with policies for a wage increase and a personal tax cut. He also offers energy bill subsidies. And he does not get distracted.

The prime minister’s abrupt answer to a question on Wednesday was probably a sign of his confidence now the polls are running his way. This masthead’s political reporter, Paul Sakkal, sought to ask a question of Foreign Minister Penny Wong, who was standing alongside Albanese in Melbourne. He was blocked from doing so. Why?

“It’s my press conference,” the prime minister said.

This was odd, but minor. Wong is one of the government’s great assets. The more questions she gets, the better Labor will do. Albanese and Wong are close, so this was not a sign of personal tension. Albanese ended the press conference on a jarring note, but this will be forgotten – unlike his lapse three years ago in not knowing the unemployment rate.

Dutton has a sharp line of attack on the cost of living because families know they have lost ground, and he has a popular policy with his $6 billion cut to fuel excise. While the cut lasts only one year, it gained 68 per cent support in the Resolve Political Monitor this week.

Why, then, is he spending time on a niche television show on Sky News late at night to indulge in debates on the “woke” agenda? One answer is simple: this is his safe space, politically, and it is easy to retreat to Sky after a day of campaigning. The second answer is equally true: he is wasting his time courting voters he has already won.

Dutton does not lose when he talks about getting rid of government waste. Many voters will nod in agreement when he talks about a bloated public service. Even so, he leans so far forward on sacking education and health officials that he lends weight to the core Labor attack against him – that he will slash and burn.

This is doubly so when the subject is the ABC, an iconic issue for many voters and a regular trap for Liberal leaders. Who can forget Tony Abbott’s pledge in 2013 that there would be no cuts to the ABC and SBS – an election promise broken eight months later? Dutton leads a party that is culturally hostile to the ABC: the Liberal federal council voted in 2018 to sell it off.

Asked about ABC funding on Wednesday, the opposition leader hinted at spending cuts.

“We want to make sure that the money is being spent efficiently and that we’re rewarding excellence at the same time,” he said. “So we support the work of the ABC but it needs to be done in an efficient way, and that’s a commitment that we make.” It sounds like a cut to the ABC is in the Coalition costings.

Dutton needs to tread with care. Elections are won in the centre – not on Sky News at night. The ABC audience includes voters he will want on his side in his mission to topple Labor – and one day reclaim those prized Liberal seats lost to “teal” independents.

Retreating to his safe space in the culture wars may be a very safe way to lose an election.

Cut through the noise of federal politics with news, views and expert analysis. Subscribers can sign up to our weekly Inside Politics newsletter.