Albanese edges ahead of Dutton as Labor bounces back: poll

Voters have swung to Labor with a surge of support that has given Prime Minister Anthony Albanese a personal edge over Opposition Leader Peter Dutton as the country’s preferred leader, lifting the government out of a long slump ahead of the May 3 election.

The dramatic swing has tightened the race for power in the opening stage of the election campaign, putting Labor and the Coalition on 50 per cent each in two-party terms in the first Resolve Political Monitor after last week’s federal budget.

Albanese has taken the lead over Dutton as preferred prime minister, ahead by 42 to 33 per cent, in a significant shift since he fell behind the opposition leader at the start of this year.

But Dutton retains a big gap against Albanese as the best leader to handle US President Donald Trump, ahead by 31 to 20 per cent, even as the prime minister suggests his opponent is trying to copy the American leader.

The exclusive survey, conducted for this masthead by research firm Resolve Strategic, shows Labor has increased its primary vote from 25 to 29 per cent over the past month, while the Coalition’s core support has slipped from 39 to 37 per cent.

Resolve director Jim Reed said this came from a boost for Labor from men and women across all age groups, with a slightly stronger gain in support from “middle Australia” parents.

“There has been a swing to Labor among voters with jobs and mortgages – those who would benefit the most from the interest rate cut in February and the budget measures last week,” he said.

“But the budget itself is not rated that well. This means the turnaround for Labor is not so much a budget bounce but is more about the budget, the rate cut and the response to the recent cyclone demonstrating competence together.”

The survey asked voters to allocate preferences as they would on the ballot paper, enabling Resolve to calculate the result in two-party terms. Counted this way, Labor and the Coalition were on 50 per cent each.

When preferences were allocated in the way they flowed at the last election, Labor had a narrow lead of 51 to 49 per cent.

Voters gave the federal budget a cool response. Only 28 per cent said it was good for them and their household – down from 40 per cent who had said the same of last year’s budget.

While 81 per cent backed the $8.5 billion plan to increase bulk-billing at the GP under Medicare – a Labor measure Dutton agreed to almost immediately – there was only 50 per cent support for greater subsidies on childcare and 50 per cent support for reducing student debt.

The biggest new measure on budget night, a $17.1 billion cut to personal income tax, gained only 51 per cent support in the Resolve Political Monitor. Another 20 per cent opposed the cut and 29 per cent were unsure.

Dutton appeared to win the hip-pocket contest with his $6 billion cut to fuel excise, gaining 68 per cent support for the policy in the Resolve survey. Only 10 per cent opposed the idea, while 22 per cent were undecided.

Treasurer Jim Chalmers gained a positive rating after the budget, with a net performance rating of 6 per cent when voters were asked if he was doing a good or bad job. Coalition shadow treasurer Angus Taylor had a net rating of minus 6 per cent.

The Resolve Political Monitor surveyed 3237 eligible voters from Wednesday to Saturday, putting questions to twice as many respondents as the usual monthly track and generating results with a margin of error of 1.7 percentage points. The respondents were chosen to reflect the wider population on gender, age, location and other factors.

Because the Resolve Political Monitor asks voters to nominate their primary votes in the same way they would write “1” on the ballot papers for the lower house at the election, there is no undecided category in the primary vote results, a key difference from some other surveys.

The survey also shows the Greens held their support steady at 13 per cent and independents were unchanged on 9 per cent, while Pauline Hanson’s One Nation slipped from 9 to 7 per cent.

Asked how they rated Albanese, 38 per cent of people said his performance was good over recent weeks and 49 per cent said it was poor. His net result, which subtracts the “poor” from the “good”, improved significantly over the month from minus 22 points to minus 11 points.

Asked the same questions of Dutton, 37 per cent said his performance was good and 47 per cent said it was poor. His net result was minus 10 percentage points, a deterioration from his positive rating of 5 points one month ago.

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