The Perth suburbs where deaths of residents outnumber births

Perth’s neighbourhoods are being reshaped as its population ages, the baby boomer population moves into retirement and millennials and generation Z continue to have smaller families.

The number of Perth suburbs where deaths outnumber births sits at 26 according to 2022-23 population data compiled by the Australian Bureau of Statistics.

Natural population increase or decline (a measure of births minus deaths) is one of the three drivers of local population, along with the movement of people within Australia, and overseas migration.

In Rockingham, deaths outstripped births by 88 in 2022-23, more than any neighbourhood in Greater Perth. The next largest natural population declines were in Bentley-Wilson-St James (-76), Mandurah (-74), Manning-Waterford (-67) and Bull Creek (-57).

Deaths outnumbered births in many wealthy suburbs on Perth’s coastal strip, led by Claremont and North Coogee (-38) followed by East Fremantle (-25), Mosman Park (-13) and Nedlands-Dalkeith-Crawley (-11).

There were also significant natural population declines in Safety Bay-Shoalwater, Bull Creek and Melville.

Outer urban areas with a relatively high share of younger couples had the highest natural population increases led by Byford where there were 327 more births than deaths in 2022-23. Next highest was the nearby suburb of Piara Waters-Forrestdale (306) and Wellard (287) in Perth’s south-east growth corridor.

University of Western Australia social demographer Amanda Davies said the variability in deaths and births across Perth suburbs reflected the different family dynamics of people living in them.

“I certainly would expect our newer family oriented suburbs such as Byford and Brabham to have high birth rates,” she said.

“Likewise it is not surprising that Bentley-Wilson-St James has higher than average natural population declines.

“This area attracts a significant student population which typically has a low fertility rate and the area is also home to a relatively large number of retirement village communities.”

Davies said Perth’s population was structurally ageing.

“This is very similar to all states in Australia, however, as Perth attracts a working age migrant population the rate of population ageing is a little slower than some states,” she said.

“This trend is resulting in an increase in the old age dependency ratio – which measures the number of people aged 65 and over for every 100 people of working age (15 to 64).

“Over the next four decades the old age dependency ratio will move from about 25 per cent to nearly 40 per cent.”

Western Australia’s fertility rate is 1.62 – well below the replacement level of 2.1. A decade ago WA’s fertility rate was 1.92.

Overall, it has been declining since the 1970s.

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