An extra 65,000 students will be educated in Western Australia over the next 20 years, with a new analysis of population data revealing the key suburbs those students and their families will live in.
The prediction shows state government plans for new schools in Perth cover some of the areas that could record the biggest growth in the five to 17 age group, but leave others falling short.
Informed Decisions – a demography company which has previously advised the WA Department of Education and Catholic Education WA about future schools’ growth – forecasts the state will grow by 28,807 primary and 35,812 high school students between 2021 and 2041.
According to the forecasting, Alkimos and Eglinton are predicted to grow by more than 9000 students, followed closely by neighbouring northern suburbs at the fringe of the urban sprawl.
Further south, Canning Vale and Willetton will record the biggest decline.
The Department of Education has planned for the growth in the area surrounding Alkimos and Eglinton, with a new primary school opened at the start of the 2025 school year and plans to open two more by 2028.
If Labor is re-elected on March 8, a fourth new school would also be discussed.
But in other predicted growth areas further south, including Baldivis and Pinjarra, there are no plans in the works, and there have been none since 2021.
In Wungong, near Armadale (another key area for growth), a new primary school with the potential to cater for 1000 students will open in 2026, but there are no plans for a new high school.
University of Western Australia social demographer Amanda Davis said future demand for schools was projected in new suburbs and outer suburbs with large housing releases planned.
She said the predictions relied on migration and fertility rates remaining stagnant.
“The good news is that schools (in newer suburbs) to support growing families is part of the planning process,” she said.
“However, there is typically a lag in infrastructure development, so those who move into new estates first might have to wait a few years for adequate services.”
Davis said older suburbs with room to grow often cycled through a pattern – new land was released, followed by families with school-aged children moving to the area causing a population boom, before declining again.
“For planning purposes, it is crucial to consider longer-term forecasts, especially for suburbs with declining school-aged populations,” Davis said.
“Short-term responses, such as closing schools and selling the land, should be avoided, particularly given the overall projection for continued population growth across greater Perth.”
Davis said it was more difficult to cater to the growing school-aged population in the inner-city “infill suburbs”.
“The capacity of existing schools in established inner-city areas to expand is low. There are limited options for developing new schools and recreational facilities,” she said.
“While urban infill has been under way for some decades, it is concerning that there has been limited planning and investment into updating and expanding facilities in those suburbs absorbing growth.
“There is an urgent need for a unified strategy for investment and updating of educational facilities across the infill suburbs.”
The Department of Education was asked about predictions for future growth, and whether the numbers provided by from Informed Decisions matched their own, but did not answer directly.
Infrastructure executive director Rob Thomson said enrolment growth was monitored closely, particularly in the outer metropolitan areas and in areas where infill was being planned or undertaken.
He said growth at established schools could be due to changing demographics, urban infill, school reputation, and parent choice.
“The planning of new schools is considered when existing schools have long-term enrolment demand that exceeds capacity at existing surrounding public schools and there is sufficient student population to support an additional school,” he said.
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