Where have the kids gone? Brisbane’s shrinking suburbs revealed

Brisbane’s population is booming at breakneck speed. But in the leafy, laidback Centenary Suburbs, it’s declining.

Nestled between the Brisbane River and the Centenary Highway in the city’s south-west, this cluster of suburbs – Jindalee, Mount Ommaney, Jamboree Heights, Middle Park, Westlake, Riverhills and Sumner – lost 156 people from 2019 to 2023.

That doesn’t sound like a lot. But by comparison, about 20 minutes further south on the same highway, the population of the Springfield-Redbank statistical district skyrocketed by 17,394 people in the same period.

Analysis by leading urban economist Terry Rawnsley shows the Centenary Suburbs’ population isn’t just declining, it’s also ageing.

“Older families have seen their children move out of the home, but the empty-nesters remain in place. Without a significant amount of new housing stock, there has been nowhere for new families to come into the suburbs,” he said.

Kirsten Adlard grew up in the Centenary Suburbs and her parents still live in Jindalee, however the 33-year-old doctor and her partner had resigned themselves to buying their first home further out in Ipswich.

Kirsten Adlard and her partner outside the Sumner home they bought in September.

But luck was on their side when they found a four-bedroom, three-bathroom low-set, brick-veneer home in Sumner.

“We were quite worried that we would be priced out by an older couple or investor. We’ve stretched ourselves to get into the area … [but] we were very lucky. My partner’s mum went guarantor, so that assisted us through the banks,” she said.

Adlard, whose parents moved to the area when it was first developed, said the Centenary Suburbs were changing, albeit slowly.

“Some of the new cafes that have come through in the last decade have helped to increase the gentrification of the area,” she said.

But it didn’t surprise her that the area’s population was falling.

“It’s really quite difficult to get in as somebody who is younger and first entering the market,” she said.

Local real estate agent Helen Saba said older residents wanted to remain in the Centenary Suburbs, but with limited retirement villages, townhouses or units available, they had few options for downsizing.

“The residents moved in when the area was being developed about 30 to 40 years ago. At that time, they had young families, so they built double-storey homes with four or five bedrooms. Now time has passed and the kids have grown up, but they are stuck in these big homes,” she said.

“They’re used to living here, they have their networks here, their doctors are here … but there are not many retirement options.”

Mount Ommaney, one of the key Centenary Suburbs dominated by sprawling, brick-veneer homes on large blocks, remains the most tightly held suburb in Brisbane. Its home owners keep their properties for an average of 20.3 years.

A home at 39 Westlake Drive in Mount Ommaney sold in early November for the first time in 25 years. The five-bedroom, three-bathroom house on a 1185-square-metre block fetched $1.747 million.

Despite the property’s size, it sold to a local downsizing couple, said Jason Yang of NGU Real Estate.

“The home was in a fairly original condition, but we had 90 groups through during the campaign, and that’s partly because Mount Ommaney doesn’t get many listings,” Yang said.

Where are the kids?

The cost of housing is perhaps the biggest factor distorting population growth patterns in Brisbane. But Rawnsley warned that a national baby recession was also having an effect.

In 2013, more than 31,000 babies were born in Brisbane. By 2023, that number had dropped to about 29,000.

Brisbane suburbs that were traditionally popular with young families, including Sherwood, Indooroopilly, Holland Park, Yeronga and Sunnybank, also lost hundreds of children and teenagers, as couples moved further out to find affordable homes.

But the baby drought has hit Brisbane’s affluent, leafy inner-western suburbs the hardest, Rawnsley said.

The Sherwood-Indooroopilly statistical district, which takes in Corinda, Sherwood, Graceville, Indooroopilly, Taringa and St Lucia, had the largest decline in children under the age of four across Brisbane in the five years to 2023.

During the same period, median house prices in the area soared. In Indooroopilly, for example, it climbed to $1.57 million in the September quarter.

“Property prices are pricing out younger families,” Rawnsley said.

“[The data] drives home that housing affordability, or lack thereof, is really reshaping the fabric of our cities.”

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