Brisbane set for population shift not seen in Queensland since the 1970s

Greater Brisbane will be home to more than half of Queensland’s population within months, as migration reshapes the Sunshine State.

For the first time since 1978, and as people continue moving from interstate and overseas, Greater Brisbane will officially have more residents than the regions from 2025-26.

The milestone had been tipped to occur years later, but has now been brought forward – with long-term implications for funding distributions, infrastructure planning, and even electoral boundaries.

Brisbane remains a popular city for people to go to university, enter the workforce and raise families.Credit: Courtney Kruk

The federal government’s Centre for Population recently predicted Greater Brisbane – the Brisbane City Council area and surrounding councils – would achieve the milestone next financial year.

Greater Brisbane is tipped to have 2,887,000 residents in 2025-26, rising to 3,288,000 by 2034-35, as Queensland continues to take on more interstate migrants than any other jurisdiction.

Over the same period, the population of the rest of Queensland is projected to grow from 2,884,000 to 3,199,000, showing the gap will widen over time.

“Brisbane is projected to continue attracting the highest level of internal migrants of any capital city, but NOM [net overseas migration] is expected to be the largest source of its population growth,” the office said.

Next year, NOM to Greater Brisbane is expected to be 22,800, ahead of the natural increase (15,100) and net internal migration (9300).

The last Census, in 2021, found the proportion of Queenslanders born overseas – most from New Zealand and, to a lesser extent, England – was smaller than every other state. The next Census will be undertaken in 2026.

With a recent council survey showing Brisbane had growing pains, Lord Mayor Adrian Schrinner made a plea for the city to receive its fair share of funding.

“Brisbane’s growth is understandable because it’s a fantastic place to live, but it’s also adding pressure to our roads and transport systems,” Schrinner told this masthead.

“While we continue to invest as much as we can in keeping Brisbane moving, our city needs its fair share of funding from the state and federal governments.

“State and federal governments reap 97 cents in every dollar of tax revenue, leaving just three cents for local governments, and it’s just not sustainable.”

The other councils in Greater Brisbane, including those responsible for designated growth areas, have made a similar call for funding in the past.

Schrinner nominated an expansion of the Metro network, restoration of the Story Bridge, and construction of the Toowong-West End bridge as projects in need of funding.

The Queensland government has not updated its population projections since late 2022, when it predicted Greater Brisbane would reach the milestone much later.

The mid-year budget update, released by Treasurer David Janetzki last month, revised Queensland population growth upwards this year, from 1.5 per cent to 1.75 per cent, and kept it unchanged next year at 1.5 per cent.

The last Queensland budget, handed down by the then-Labor government, allocated more than two-thirds of capital expenditure outside of Greater Brisbane (up from 58 per cent in 2020-21 to 68.5 per cent in 2024-25). More road funding was allocated to the regions than the city, despite the biggest surge in road fatalities occurring in Brisbane.

Not only will there be federal, state and council budgets in the coming months, a federal election is looming, with immigration remaining a hot policy issue.

Based on the latest data, Queensland’s metropolitan tilt will leave only Tasmania with more residents living outside the state capital from 2025-26.

The International Population Conference will be held in Australia for the first time this year, with Brisbane hosting the five-day event in July.

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