Will your suburb shrink or grow? These charts have the answer

Huge differences in population growth are forecast across Sydney over the next two decades, with some outer suburbs projected to increase by 10 per cent a year while many north shore, inner-city neighbourhoods remain largely unchanged.

The population of NSW is forecast to pass 10 million by 2041.Credit: Flavio Brancaleone

Greater Sydney will have 6.7 million people in 2041, about 1.1 million more than now, new forecasts by the NSW Department of Planning show. The NSW population, sitting at 8.5 million, is projected to pass 10 million by then.

The Austral-Greendale-Badgerys Creek area in Sydney’s south-west will add 54,000 people by 2041, more than any other suburbs. Adjacent Cobbitty-Bringelly will add 41,000, and Box Hill-Nelson in Sydney’s north-west will increase by about 42,000.

Sydney’s most populated local government area, Blacktown City Council, will have 563,350 people in 2041, close to Tasmania’s current population (575,700 in March 2024).

But population growth in many harbourside suburbs will be meagre. Balmain is expected to add 95 more residents between 2024 and 2041, Manly-Fairlight 202, Potts Point-Woolloomooloo 208 and Mosman-South 290. Hunters Hill’s population is projected to be lower in 2041 than in 2020.

Just over 2 million children will be born in NSW between 2021 and 2041, offset by about 1.2 million deaths. Net overseas migration will add 1.7 million people over that period, though a net total of 400,000 people are expected to move interstate.

Nick Parr, honorary professor of demography at Macquarie University, said population growth will be driven by overseas migration.

“It’s interesting that substantial population growth is projected, even though those projections assume the birth rates going forward will continue at what are really quite low levels.”

A fertility rate of 1.63 births per woman is predicted for NSW over the next two decades, well below the “replacement level” of 2.1 required for a stable population, not including migration.

An ageing population

There will be a striking shift in the age profile; the share of residents aged 65 or older will jump from 17.2 per cent in 2021 to 21 per cent by 2041.

“By that time, the Baby Boomer generation will be 80 and above,” Parr says.

Meanwhile, the share of children will fall from 18.4 per cent of the population to 16.5 per cent by 2041.

The working-age population will grow by 21 per cent, but there will be a 52 per cent increase in people aged 65 or older.

The median age will climb from 39 to 41 years between now and 2041. At that time, the state’s youngest suburb of Shortland-Jesmond, near the University of Newcastle, will have a median age of 26 years. That’s 39 years lower than the expected median age in Tea Gardens-Hawks Nest, which is set to be the most elderly community in NSW by 2041 (65 years).

Growth mixed in regional NSW

The population of regional NSW, now 2 million, will continue to climb, although local growth rates will vary. Inland cities such as Albury, Bathurst, Dubbo, Tamworth and Wagga Wagga will draw more people from neighbouring areas.

Coastal towns like Ballina, Coffs Harbour, Port Macquarie and Tweed are expected to attract young families and retirees from Greater Sydney.

But population declines are forecast in parts of western NSW. Bourke-Brewarrina is expected to have 292 fewer people in 2041, a drop of 8 per cent, while Walgett-Lightning Ridge will lose 5 of its current population by that time.

Start the day with a summary of the day’s most important and interesting stories, analysis and insights. Sign up for our Morning Edition newsletter.