Why Perrottet won’t risk an election-eve reshuffle

Dominic Perrottet leads an ageing government which voters may perceive is both too male and too stale to be given another term. And yet, the team the NSW premier is taking to the election does not reflect what his government would look like if it is re-elected on March 25.

Five of his frontbenchers – including some of the most senior – will not be part of his government if the Coalition is returned in eight weeks, choosing to retire (or in one case, forced out) rather than face life in opposition.

NSW Premier Dominic Perrottet is unlikely to reshuffle his frontbench before the March 25 election.Credit: Kate Geraghty

Customer Service Minister Victor Dominello – who has long championed a cashless gaming card – is bowing out due to family health reasons, while Cities Minister Rob Stokes (and Perrottet’s closest mate in parliament) is moving on after missing the chance to be premier following the downfall of Gladys Berejiklian. Stokes is open about his ambitions: “It was up, or out.”

Guiding NSW through the darkest days of the pandemic has taken its toll on Health Minister Brad Hazzard who has seen government, opposition and government once more after being elected in 1991. He is also leaving, as is Corrections Minister Geoff Lee.

The only reluctant retiree is Transport Minister David Elliott, who has attracted more than a reasonable share of controversy, including most recently being an integral player in Perrottet’s Nazi costume revelations.

After being at war with the Right faction, Elliott unsurprisingly could not convince factional powerbrokers to back him for preselection in the conservative-controlled north-west of Sydney. Unlike the other retirees, Elliott, from the smaller centre-right grouping, is likely to go out with a bang, either lobbing a grenade or with one in his hand.

NSW Premier Dominic Perrottet (centre) flanked by ministers not contesting the election (from left) Victor Dominello, Brad Hazzard, Rob Stokes and David Elliott.Credit:

Despite their looming departures, the five will remain the face of Perrottet’s government leading into the toughest contest between the Coalition and Labor since well before the 2011 election. The most recent published polling for the Herald from Resolve Strategic has Labor in an election-winning lead with a primary vote of 37 per cent. But it will be close.

In the absence of a reshuffle, one confirmed member of Perrottet’s cabinet after the election is an ex minister who quit over his role in the most damaging scandal of Perrottet’s leadership. Following months of speculation, Perrottet this week announced that former trade minister Stuart Ayres will return to the frontbench. But only after the election.

After leaving Perrottet exposed to the damaging John Barilaro trade appointment fiasco for weeks, Ayres was forced to quit the ministry after a review raised questions about whether he remained at arm’s length from the controversial US trade post that haunted the government. Ayres has since languished on the backbench, seething that he was made the fall guy.

A reshuffle is always fraught, which is no doubt why Perrottet has avoided one. Ambitions cloud judgments and factional deals must be accommodated. Moving the deckchairs this close to an election and risking internal warfare, which already exists in some sections of the party, could be disastrous.

NSW Premier Dominic Perrottet (right) talks with Stuart Ayres at a media event on Monday.Credit: Kate Geraghty

Presumably Perrottet sees the benefit in seasoned hands arguing the government’s position in the campaign rather than thrusting untested new ministers into the white heat of battle. The ministers know what is expected of them and have the confidence to take on most Labor onslaughts.

But it is a risky move for a 12-year-old government wanting to convince voters it is new and fresh.

While relying on old hands as its merits, it also exposes Perrottet’s lack of depth in his frontbench should he defy the polls and win a historic fourth term. Another glaring issue he will have when selecting his new ministers in the event of victory is a dearth of women.

Despite watching their federal counterparts brutally punished in the May election for not taking women seriously, the NSW division of the Liberals have not learnt their lesson.

With the exception of North Shore MP Felicity Wilson, all the Liberal candidates for the blue-ribbon electorates north of the Harbour Bridge (where the risk from teal candidates is the highest) are male. In 10 of 11 seats on Sydney’s north shore, the Liberal Party will be represented by men.

Perrottet tried to push the case for more women, but the factions prevailed. When he stamped his foot and demanded that the upper house ticket represent society – that is having 50 per cent female representation – his own faction turned on him and threatened to release details, or worse – a photo, of his 21st birthday party where he was dressed as Nazi.

Meanwhile, Labor has had its frontbench in place since Chris Minns took over as leader in June 2021, with the exception of firebrand MP Walt Secord who quit amid bullying allegations and One Nation recruit Tania Mihailuk who accused the party of being too close to property developers.

Senior opposition politicians, such as shadow treasurer Daniel Mookhey, roads spokesman John Graham and environment spokeswoman Penny Sharpe, have had 18 months to get across their portfolios. But that is not without its own problems. Only former leader Michael Daley, who led the party to defeat in 2019, has experience as a cabinet minister. If Labor wins, it will be a baptism of fire for the new frontbench. Government is a very different beast to opposition.

After the stunning downfall of Berejiklian, Perrottet had to move quickly to establish himself as a fresh face that would deliver a renewed government worthy of another four years in power. But as the federal Liberals also learnt, an election is about the future, and Labor will be sure to hammer that point that, under Perrottet, it is not clear what that future looks like.

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