An additional 90,000 students are expected to be educated in NSW in the next 10 years, sparking fears the government is failing to build enough public schools to cater for them.
Plans for five new schools were listed in the state budget, while some schools have spent six years in the “planning” stages.
Informed Decisions, a demography company which advises the NSW Department of Education and Catholic Schools NSW about future schools’ growth, forecasts NSW will add an extra 51,926 primary and 40,497 high school students over the next 10 years to 2034.
The extra 90,000 students equates to a 7 per cent increase in total student numbers for the 1.2 million primary and high school students in NSW.
Suburb-by-suburb population forecasts for the 2021 to 2031 period show Marsden Park, Box Hill and Schofields in Sydney’s north-west are at the centre of population growth increases.
Leppington and Catherine Field will get an extra 6000 students between 2031 and 2040, while the suburbs of Austral and Greendale will get an extra 5000 students over the same period.
The Education Department conducted an enrolment growth audit almost a year ago which outlined how suburbs such as Denham Court added 10,000 more homes than originally forecast.
Leppington is expected to get another 6000 students between 2031 and 2040, on top of existing population growth.Credit: Rhett Wyman
As a result of previous poor planning, the department created school-by-school enrolment projections, but declined to release them to the Herald.
Gemma Quinn, chief executive of the state’s P&C Federation, said the department must tell parents how many students were expected at each school.
“Providing transparency in relation to school enrolment projections will allow families to make plans for their children’s education with confidence,” Quinn said.
She said governments should be “laser-focused” on infrastructure planning, including reducing demountables. More than 450 schools in NSW relied on five or more demountables last year.
“These temporary structures were never meant to be a long-term solution, yet they have become a symbol of chronic underinvestment,” she said.
Peter Fowler, chief executive of the Anglican Schools Corporation, oversees 18 schools and said they typically started planning for schools 10 years in advance.
“The reality is the government schools that are there are overcrowded. The government schools have come in too late,” he said.
On the north shore, the 10-year-old Cammeraygal High School is refusing to enrol some students in its catchment because it is full.
Principal Mark De Vries at Santa Sophia Catholic College.Credit: Wolter Peeters
A primary and high school in nearby St Leonards was first named in the 2018-19 state budget as being in the “planning” stage. Six years and a change of government later, the project remains on the NSW School Infrastructure website as being in the planning phase.
David Hope, head of the Northern Sydney District Council of P&Cs, said the state government saved on capital costs when students went to private schools.
“The NSW government has a financial incentive for more students to go to federally funded private schools,” he said. “I don’t think they necessarily want them to go to private schools, but it is an incentive.”
The state budget last year listed five new schools, down from 13 the year before. Two are in Sydney – a primary and high school in Box Hill. A primary school made of demountables opened this year as a stopgap.
Mark De Vries, principal of Santa Sophia Catholic College in Box Hill, said his was the only school in the area since it opened four years ago.
“The reality is, we couldn’t keep up with the demand. I personally welcome another school,” he said.
Some public schools are being built using modular methods. Bruce Nicholson, chief executive of Fleetwood, a company specialising in modular construction methods, said they can “play a big role building the schools Australia needs for our surging student numbers”.
Opposition education spokeswoman Sarah Mitchell said not enough schools were being planned or funded to cater for the increased demand.
“With only five new schools announced in Labor’s most recent budget, there are simply not enough schools being planned or funded to cater for the increased demand,” she said.
“Labor’s answer appears to be chucking demountables in empty paddocks and claiming to have ‘delivered’ a new school because they clearly have no money in the budget to build what is needed.”
Mitchell said since 2017, the Coalition in NSW delivered $9.1 billion in new and upgraded schools and left a pipeline of $8.6 billion for new schools.
Education Minister Prue Car said her government invested a record $8.9 billion in the 2024-25 budget for new and upgraded schools.
“For too long, schools in high-growth areas have been forced to rely on long-term demountables that became a permanent fixture under the Liberals and Nationals,” she said.
“That approach isn’t good enough and we are focused on reducing long-term reliance on demountables through our record pipeline of new and upgraded schools.”
Start the day with a summary of the day’s most important and interesting stories, analysis and insights. Sign up for our Morning Edition newsletter.