Revealed: How many new homes are planned at a train station near you

The number of new homes planned for most of the state government’s transport-oriented development sites has been revealed, showing some train stations are set for four times as many new dwellings as others.

But the opposition, which obtained the figures through a parliamentary inquiry, quickly criticised them as detached from reality and unlikely to ever be realised.

Some of the biggest growth is forecast on Sydney’s north shore and around Lake Macquarie, where most sites have capacity for 5000 to 7000 more homes over the next 15 years, while others such as Kogarah, Lidcombe and Tuggerah have space for fewer than 2000.

In Ku-ring-gai, where the local council unsuccessfully tried to block the program, Gordon and Killara are each slated for up to 5272 new apartments, Lindfield 5935 and Roseville 6101.

The southern Sydney suburb of Turrella, which had fewer than 1000 dwellings at the last census, can expect up to 3661 new homes under the scheme.

In the St George area, the Rockdale and Banksia sites have combined capacity for up to 11,300 new homes, but Kogarah, which already has pockets of density, has room for just 1909 (or an average of 127 new dwellings a year).

The precinct around Roseville station on the north shore will have capacity for 6101 new homes under the government’s planning controls.Credit: Steven Siewert

Booragul, which is at the northern end of Lake Macquarie, could accommodate 7063 new homes under the government’s changes, and the neighbouring suburb of Teralba as many as 6697. But Central Coast stations generally have less capacity, with room for only 1600 homes in Tuggerah, 1787 in Woy Woy and 2886 in Wyong.

The government has only released figures for the 23 TOD sites that have commenced – another 14 locations, including in the inner west, are still being finished. The data was previously cabinet-in-confidence but was released in response to questions on notice from a parliamentary inquiry.

As the Herald has previously reported, the figures relate to the theoretical capacity of each TOD precinct under the new planning controls, not the likely development outcome based on market conditions or feasibility.

The new controls allow for six-storey apartment blocks within 400 metres of each train station, although councils retain the ability to assess and reject applications involving heritage items.

Most developers and planners believe far fewer homes will actually be delivered at the TOD sites over the next 15 years. The Urban Development Institute of Australia (UDIA) has predicted the program would work on the north shore, generating two-bedroom units priced at about $1.4 million, but would not be feasible in most other locations.

On Thursday, the UDIA released an analysis projecting just 171,000 new homes would be built across Sydney, the Hunter and Central Coast, and Illawarra/Shoalhaven region over the next five years of the National Housing Accord, well short of government targets.

It said the timeframe for consolidating land and gaining development approvals, as well as broadly unfavourable economic conditions, “mean these planning reforms alone are unlikely to be enough to deliver the seismic uptick in housing delivery needed to meet the Housing Accord targets”.

Opposition planning spokesman Scott Farlow echoed that view, saying many of the TOD figures released to the inquiry were “pie in the sky, and don’t bear any resemblance to the reality of what will be built, particularly in the next five years”.

The opposition spokesman for planning, Scott Farlow, said the figures were “pie in the sky”.Credit: Edwina Pickles

Farlow singled out Booragul for criticism, arguing: “The government expects 7063 dwellings to be built around a station with no shops where they have two peak services to Newcastle Interchange and one two-and-a-half-hour service to Central.”

Planning Minister Paul Scully, who will appear at budget estimates on Friday, said the Liberals left NSW with the housing crisis, and noted they tried to reverse the TOD program in the parliament.

“The Liberals have no credibility when it comes to housing supply,” he said. “Their housing target is no additional houses today, none tomorrow and zero over the next five years.”

A spokesperson for the Department of Planning, Housing and Infrastructure said the estimates for each TOD location were based on the size of the area and the relevant planning controls. In many locations, the final boundaries would deliver more homes than first anticipated.

“These are the best estimate of dwelling outcomes over the next 15 years,” the department said. “Ultimately, the number of dwellings built will depend on decisions made by current and future landowners, approvals and future strategic planning by councils.”

Responding to questions on notice, Planning secretary Kiersten Fishburn said councils had indicated they expected to see the first development applications under the TOD program lodged in early 2025, which was consistent with the department’s expectations.

Councils also reported “strong developer interest in acquiring and amalgamating properties” since the program began, Fishburn said.

The figures released to the inquiry relate to the second tier of the TOD program. In the first tier, the state government will rezone eight “accelerated precincts” around metro or heavy rail stations.

It has already released draft master plans for seven out of the eight, with a combined capacity of 62,000 additional homes over 15 years. Public consultation on those plans closes on Friday.

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