At the heart of the state electorate of Penrith, the new suburb of Thornton is growing vertically around the train station at such an impatient rate that people who move into those apartments soon learn there is nowhere to park a second car. At the electorate’s north-east fringe in the new suburb of Jordan Springs, the parking is plentiful, but the buses are so infrequent that people have to drive to get anywhere.
This is what it is like to live in a growth corridor, where infrastructure falls a few beats behind population growth. In an electorate whose local member Stuart Ayres has been the chief champion for raising the Warragamba Dam wall, it is fertile ground to sow the seed ahead of Saturday’s election that such a move might open the way for further development.
The government wants to raise Warragamba Dam by 14 metres, but the opposition is against the measure.Credit: Nikki Short
“With the dam wall, the cynicism that comes through with this is, ‘Is this just so we can build more houses on the flood plain?’” Labor candidate Karen McKeown said. “You can’t pull the wool over people’s eyes.”
Ayres has ruled out further development on the flood plain, describing the suggestion as “mindless stupidity”.
“We already know what places are safe to develop, so we’re going to make that work,” Ayres said. “You can’t open up land in higher risk areas, or you’re just creating a bigger insurance bill for the household and a bigger tax bill for the taxpayer. Most people – or I’ll say the sensible centre – think lifting the dam wall is pretty good.”
The Parliamentary Budget Office reported on Monday that the government had not set aside any funds to cover the cost of raising the dam wall, which has previously been estimated at $2 billion. But if the proposal goes ahead, the residents of Penrith are more likely to benefit than those further downstream, who are vulnerable to flooding from tributaries.
Modelling by the NSW government suggests that 8600 people would be given more time to evacuate if the dam wall was raised 14 metres if a “one in 100 chance per year” flood eventuated in 2041, if all development that has been announced was to go ahead.
But opponents of the proposal say a higher wall would open the prospect of development between the “one in 100 chance per year” level that is the government standard and the “probable maximum flood” level, which should be applied given the number of lives at risk.
Australian National University professor of environmental science Jamie Pittock is advocating for government buybacks of dwellings below the one in 100 year level, better evacuation routes and diversifying Sydney’s water supply with a second desalination plant to reduce the amount of water held back by the dam. He said neither side of politics had adequately addressed flood mitigation in the Hawkesbury-Nepean Valley, but raising the dam wall was simplistic.
“It suits the government to serve the big property owners who have been land banking with an expectation of development and I also think that the government perceives this as a popular ‘magic bullet’ solution where nobody has to do anything hard, you just need to build a bigger dam,” Pittock said. “I think that’s a very misguided solution and there is a better alternative.”
NSW Premier Dominic Perrottet at Warragamba Dam in October.Credit: Rhett Wyman
It is common ground that the 2022 floods did not approach the biggest floods that have been spat out by the river system since European settlement. But it is not certain that the proposal to raise the wall will buy votes for the Liberal Party.
McKeown said it was rarely raised with her.
Brett Crellin, from the neighbouring electorate of Badgerys Creek, said most locals did not believe it would happen anytime soon. But given the amount of infrastructure committed to Penrith, neither did he think voters would hold the lag between population growth and the provision of services against the government.
“Like other seats, I think the focus will be on cost of living pressures,” he said.
The promise of infrastructure is drawing people to Penrith more quickly than housing can be built to accommodate them.Credit: James Brickwood
The story in Penrith, which is held by Ayres on a 0.6 per cent margin and will be crucial to whichever party forms government, is more complicated than infrastructure failing to meet population growth. The promise of infrastructure – particularly the Western Sydney Aerotropolis rising 30 minutes’ drive to the south – is drawing people to Penrith more quickly than housing can be built to accommodate them. Residential vacancy rates plummeted during the pandemic and currently stand at 0.7 per cent, just below than the Sydney average.
But independent Penrith councillor Sue Day said the current generation was wearing the cost of the future economic growth in the area and neither of the major parties had offered an immediate fix.
These growing pains are felt by people like Kate Mottley, who moved from Thornton to Penrith last year, partly because she was sick of having to walk 15 minutes to get to her car. The apartment came with one parking spot and it went to her partner, who had the newer car. Neither of them envisaged how difficult it would be to find street parking, and they both needed cars to get to work.
“It looked like they put in too many high buildings without parking spots to support residents with cars. Now they’ve got all these new businesses opening up, they’re opening more and more cafes and there’s a little bar, but you can’t park your car anywhere.”
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