Alfred to slow and lessen in severity, but window of destruction remains open

Tropical Cyclone Alfred’s forecast arrival has been pushed back by 24 hours after the category 2 storm stalled off Australia’s east coast, but residents of certain northern NSW areas were being urged to evacuate on Thursday night amid warnings of flooding.

The cyclone was expected to cross the coast early on Saturday morning between Noosa and Coolangatta.

Forecasts suggest the cyclone could be downgraded in severity to a category 1 storm, but meteorologists warn the delayed landfall could prolong severe weather conditions and remain a major threat to communities.

Hundreds of schools have been closed and extensive flood evacuation warnings have been in place in northern NSW since late Wednesday as Alfred started to affect the state’s northern coastline.

On Thursday afternoon, the NSW SES issued a number of emergency warnings for residents, including those in the Lismore CBD, Tumbulgum and Kyogle, to evacuate by 9pm due to anticipated flooding.

“You must evacuate before this time because forecasted heavy rainfall will close evacuation routes,” the SES said.

Meanwhile, about 10,000 homes and businesses across the region were left without power after strong winds blew vegetation and trees into electricity networks and caused power outages.

Alfred was initially forecast to make landfall in the early hours of Friday morning near Brisbane, but it is now expected to hit Moreton Island around 4am local time on Saturday. The cyclone is moving west at a speed of 6km/h.

The western edge of Alfred was sitting about 225 kilometres east of Brisbane and 215 kilometres east of the Gold Coast on Thursday afternoon.

NSW Premier Chris Minns compared Cyclone Alfred to an “unwanted houseguest”.

Enhanced infrared satellite image showing clouds around Tropical Cyclone Alfred on Wednesday.Credit: Weatherzone.com.au

“It’s told us that it’s going to be late, but linger even longer, and unfortunately, that means the window for destruction in our community, heavy rains, winds, powerful surf is longer than we would otherwise like,” he told reporters in Lismore.

“We know that communities in the Northern Rivers are resilient people, but you need them to understand that the threat isn’t over, and as a result, they need to make sure they’re doing everything they can to prepare,” he said.

Acting NSW SES Chief Superintendent Stuart Fisher said strong winds in Lismore were expected to bring down power lines and trees, making it more difficult for emergency services to access people stuck in flooded areas.

“The weather is deteriorating rapidly for us – whilst it may look like the rivers aren’t flooding, there is high concern that they will start flooding tonight and continue into tomorrow,” said Fisher.

“We do expect other areas to be under evacuation orders tomorrow.”

A State Emergency Operations Centre was opened in Homebush, in Sydney’s inner-west, to act as a central hub and provide assistance and intelligence for response agencies.

Destructive winds of up to 155km/h and a dangerous storm tide could hit as far south as Cape Byron, the weather bureau said.

Weather conditions are expected to deteriorate rapidly on Thursday afternoon and evening as winds and rainfall increase. Parts of the state’s north-east are forecast to be drenched with up to 800mm of rain from Wednesday to Saturday, while other areas could receive sustained rainfall of up to 600mm.

Flood evacuation warnings were in place for residents in Ballina, Tweed Heads, South Golden Beach, Pottsville and Hastings Point.

Fifteen evacuation centres were set up and already housing dozens of locals, but NSW Police Superintendent Scott Tanner warned these centres were for survival.

“Don’t expect a cruise ship – this is a life raft. Don’t go expecting five-star service,” he said.

As of Thursday, nearly 300 schools had been closed, including 247 public schools and 33 independent schools. The schools were due to remain closed on Thursday.

Ballina, Coffs Harbour and Gold Coast airports were also closed, but some flights in and out of Brisbane were still operating.

Alfred was initially forecast to cross the coast early on Friday morning, sparking concerns it would coincide with high tide at 1am (AEDT), causing dangerous storm surges, and creating a weather event not seen in NSW since Tropical Cyclone Nancy hit the state in 1990.

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