Is it time for Australia to acquire its own nuclear weapons?

Is it time for Australia to consider acquiring nuclear weapons? It sounds outrageous. Stay with me.

Donald Trump is blowing up world trade. After a period of turmoil, it will probably settle into a new state where the US economy is substantially weaker. Trump is also trashing post-war alliances, including NATO, prompting US allies to decide America cannot be relied on. Europe no longer trusts the US to stand up to democracy’s enemies and will remake itself economically and militarily.

A mushroom cloud after an atomic bomb test in French Polynesia in 1971.Credit: Getty

China, Trump’s main target, will go through a difficult economic adjustment but is well-prepared and will come out on top. Beijing is already exploiting the Trump chaos, with President Xi Jinping making nice in South-East Asian capitals.

China will emerge stronger from this period of American madness and with more global influence. Trump will be gone in four years and Trumpism may be weakened, but the next US president will be unable to put the pieces back together. We are witnessing a break in history.

The chief ideologist of the MAGA movement, Steve Bannon, has asked, “What comes after the liberal rules-based order?” It’s an excellent question, but neither Bannon nor any of Trump’s acolytes can give an answer, perhaps because in their hearts they know what comes after Pax Americana. It’s Pax Sinica (China).

There are those who believe Australia can carve out an “independent” foreign policy and sail on without Pax Americana, using diplomacy as our best defence. It’s a charming vision, but one disconnected from the hard geopolitics of our region and the world.

Beijing has made it clear that it regards the entire Asia-Pacific, including Australia, as its exclusive sphere of influence. Its first strategic priority, after annexing Taiwan, is to drive the United States back across the Pacific.

Donald Trump and Xi Jinping.Credit: Age & SMH

Xi Jinping has instructed China’s military to be ready to invade Taiwan in 2027. President Joe Biden promised that the US would come to Taiwan’s defence. Trump is averse to foreign wars and it seems unlikely he would defend Taiwan. If the US did join the battle, the war-gaming experts say it may well lose, a disastrous defeat for US prestige and power.

With China occupying Taiwan, the strategic balance would shift decisively in Beijing’s favour. In a coming book, Ghost Nation, Chris Horton quotes the influential Chinese scholar Jin Canrong on why invading Taiwan must be done. “Everyone will know the original boss is no good any more, he’s grown weak – the new boss is here.”

This scenario is now the most likely outcome in the coming years. With the US no longer a force in the region, Beijing will use its enormous economic and military advantage to reduce other states to compliance.

Xi Jinping talks peace and harmony when abroad but at home he tells the Communist Party faithful of his desire to restore a Chinese tianxia, an empire “all under heaven”, a hierarchical, illiberal and coercive order with Beijing at the apex. In a recent book, scholars Steve Tsang and Olivia Cheung describe tianxia as the “most important element of Xi’s thought on foreign policy”.

With the US in retreat and China unchecked, Japan and South Korea would be tempted to acquire nuclear weapons to deter China from military incursions and restore some power balance.

Will we be safe down here? When I interviewed foreign policy experts in China, it became clear that Beijing covets Australia’s vast resources of arable land and minerals. With the US gone, China’s illegal claim to the South China Sea would go unchallenged. It extends as far down as Indonesia’s Natuna Islands. Moscow, with Beijing’s support, is working to have Russian warplanes based in Indonesia. Indonesia is already close to Russia.

When, in February, China dispatched a naval task group to circumnavigate Australia, firing its guns and missiles along the way, Beijing was sending us an unmissable message. “Look at what we can do. What are you going to do about it?” Our political leaders were quick to tell us it was no big deal. Really? Our top brass seemed to be at a loss as to how to respond to this exercise in grey zone warfare.

If Beijing, confident that the US would not react, sends a larger naval force (they have 370 warships to choose from) to blockade Sydney Harbour, what would we do? Xi Jinping would like nothing better than for one of our 11 combat ships to sink one of theirs. In a frenzy of patriotic outrage, it would be an excuse for severe punishment.

So, what are our options if we do not want to become a tributary state in Xi’s new tianxia? To be sure, acquiring nuclear weapons would take Australia down a costly, contentious and perilous path.

The truth is, though, that for decades we have outsourced our nuclear protection to the United States. As we watch the US nuclear umbrella being folded up, we have three ways to react. We can say we never needed it anyway and rely on “diplomacy” for security. We can wait two decades for the new submarines to arrive, hoping they won’t be strategically redundant. Or we can put the money into building our own nuclear deterrent.

Any decision to acquire nuclear weapons would be a deeply moral one, but only the naive make moral decisions outside the hard realities of the dangers we face.

Clive Hamilton is professor of public ethics at Charles Sturt University in Canberra.