What’s really behind the Coalition split, or will they stay together?

On Tuesday this week, Nationals leader David Littleproud delivered the shock announcement that the Coalition was over because the Liberals had refused to agree to the Nationals’ policy demands.

The announcement upended an 80-year partnership between the Liberal Party and Nationals, which have typically needed to join forces to win enough seats to form government.

But by Thursday, Littleproud announced a dramatic about-face in a snap press conference in Canberra just two days after he walked away from the Coalition partnership for the first time in 38 years.

Nationals’ leader and Liberal leader Sussan Ley agree to put on hold the Coalition spilt.Credit: AAPIMAGE

He said the turnaround followed a meeting with Liberal leader Sussan Ley on Thursday morning, in which he agreed to her request that he give her time to convene a meeting of Liberal MPs to discuss the Nationals’ four policy demands for a Coalition agreement.

Littleproud and Ley agreed to put their next steps on hold while they search for a fix that will allow their MPs to walk back into parliament together.

On Friday it was revealed by this masthead that Littleproud was preparing to dump former leaders Michael McCormack and Barnaby Joyce from his front bench on Thursday, but is now facing questions about his future after the pair worked with Liberal leader Sussan Ley to pressure him into reopening Coalition talks.

Nationals leader David Littleproud announces the split alongside the party’s Senate leader Bridget McKenzie and deputy leader Kevin Hogan.Credit: AAP

The decision to sideline the senior MPs will reverberate in the Nationals party room, while the battle between the nation’s conservative parties threatens to drag on for weeks.

Liberal MPs met on Thursday evening in a virtual hook-up, agreeing to give closer examination to the Nationals’ terms in a meeting next week, but also vented about Littleproud’s handling of the coalition negotiations, according to several MPs speaking on the condition of anonymity.

When will we know for sure if the Coalition will split?

Littleproud said he had a productive meeting with Ley and said he agreed to her request for time to convene a meeting of Liberal MPs to discuss the Nationals’ four policy demands for a Coalition agreement.

Both Littleproud and Ley had planned to unveil their separate portfolio spokespeople on Thursday afternoon. But Littleproud said he had sent his team home from Canberra “in good faith”, and that Ley would also refrain from unveiling her frontbench pending further Liberal party room meetings.

“This is a positive step forward, one in which we’ve always said we’d be productive and constructive, and I think the Nationals have acted in good faith,” he said.

“I’m proud to say that we’ll allow this process to take place and the Liberal Party to convene at whatever period is for them and convenient for them, and I think that is the way forward in a mature and sensible.”

At this stage, neither Littleproud or Ley have set a specific timeline for the period that is “convenient for them [the Liberal Party]”.

Why did the split happen in the first place?

Essentially, the Nationals gave Opposition Leader Sussan Ley an ultimatum, and she refused to agree to their terms.

The Nationals’ boss cast himself as the protagonist who refused to bend on four policies which he said were non-negotiable.

The Liberals and Nationals meet after every election, whether they are in government or opposition, to thrash out a deal known as the Coalition agreement.

This has typically centred on how many frontbench positions are allocated to each party, and which portfolios they hold.

What changed this time around was the Nationals’ hardline demands over specific policy positions.

When announcing the split, Littleproud said the Nationals chose to take a principled stance. What does this mean?

Littleproud said his party room had taken a vote on four key policies, which were part of the Coalition platform at the past election and needed to be part of a new agreement.

“We secured in the former Coalition policies that should remain. We don’t want to have to look back and to waste energy on trying to re-prosecute the case,” he said on Tuesday.

These policies are:

1. A commitment to establish a $20 billion Regional Australia Future Fund to fund infrastructure projects and other services such as childcare facilities;
2. A commitment to legislate federal divestiture powers – laws that could be used to break up big businesses such as supermarket chains that abuse market power;
3. A “universal service obligation” that would oblige telecommunications companies to boost telecommunication coverage across Australia;
4. A commitment to lift Australia’s ban on nuclear energy.

What is the history of the Liberal-National Coalition?

The Liberal-National Coalition has existed since the 1940s, but coalitions on the conservative side of politics have existed in several guises in Australia since 1922.

It is not the first time the two parties have split. It happened at least twice in 1972 and the last time in 1987, prompted by the late Queensland premier Joh Bjelke-Petersen’s ill-judged tilt at becoming prime minister.

Sir Joh Bjelke-Petersen’s tilt at running for prime minister triggered the last split in the Coalition.Credit: Peter O'Halloran

Traditionally, the Liberal Party has targeted urban seats, and former prime minister John Howard famously described it as a “broad church” which can encompass the views of moderate liberals, economic conservatives and the Nationals.

The Nationals represent rural electorates and have been described as agrarian socialists due to their preference for policies that distribute resources to primary producers and communities in the bush.

What does this mean for the Nationals and the Liberal Party?

The Liberals are set to have about 28 lower house seats and the Nationals 15, which, even when combined, is not enough to block legislation given Labor’s thumping win at the May election.

In the Senate, although final numbers are not determined, the Nationals won four spots in the election, the Liberals 22 and Labor won 28, while the Greens have 11.

This means that both conservative parties combined cannot block legislation if the Greens vote with Labor. It also means that the Liberal Party could support the government to pass new laws that the Nationals oppose, or vice versa.

One particularly hot topic is Labor’s plan to reform national environment laws, which was opposed by the Coalition in the previous parliament. However, Ley is a former environment minister and the government is hopeful she could be persuaded to back reforms bitterly opposed by the Nationals.

What does it mean for Ley and Littleproud if the split goes ahead?

The split cements Littleproud’s support in the Nationals party room, which is now united in its split from the Liberals.

Queensland senator Matt Canavan and MP Colin Boyce called for a challenge to Littleproud’s leadership just last week, urging the party to prosecute the case for regional Australia more aggressively.

Nationals MPs are united, at least for the short term, in this bold course of action. However, Littleproud said during his press conference that he hoped the Liberals and Nationals could reunite before the election and said the split was about giving the Liberals time to think about their future.

Ley has stood firm in the first big test of her short leadership, after she was elected to the Liberals’ top job on Tuesday last week.

The Nationals’ demand for a range of policy commitments is unusual in a Coalition agreement, and Ley would have appeared weak if she had agreed to their demands, risking her own position given she won the contest against former treasury spokesman Angus Taylor for the leadership by a razor-thin margin of 29 to 25.

While the Nationals maintained their representation in parliament, the Liberals suffered a record loss and were left holding just nine metropolitan electorates.

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