While the world focused on Trump’s trade war, the Gaza ceasefire was unravelling in plain sight

WARNING: THIS STORY HAS GRAPHIC CONTENT

The ceasefire between Israel and Hamas has finally collapsed under the weight of its contradictions. The predictability of this moment does not make it any less devastating. After two months of relative peace, Israeli bombs are again falling on Gaza and people are dying again in the hundreds. Palestinian civilians – many of whom loathe Hamas or are too young to have any political opinions – will pay the highest price for the resumption of the fighting.

I learnt of the news in a text from Asmahan Abdalraheem, a 24-year-old Palestinian accounting graduate who has been sheltering for months with her family in a tent city in Khan Younis. “The war is back again now,” Abdalraheem wrote at 2.22am Gaza time on Tuesday. “We woke up to the sound of very violent bombing.” Punctuating her WhatsApp message: two broken-heart emojis.

Three minutes later, an official Telegram alert arrived from the Israeli Defence Forces announcing they were “currently conducting extensive strikes on terror targets belonging to the Hamas organisation in the Gaza Strip”.

Injured Palestinians, including children and women, are taken to the Al-Aqsa Martyrs Hospital for treatment as Israel launches large-scale airstrikes across the Gaza Strip.Credit: Getty Images

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office said the resumption of the airstrikes “follows Hamas’ repeated refusal to release our hostages, as well as its rejection of all of the proposals it has received from US presidential envoy Steve Witkoff and from the mediators. Israel will, from now on, act against Hamas with increasing military strength”.

Netanyahu’s office avoided explicitly declaring the ceasefire was over, but this was only semantics. More than 300 people have been killed in the air attacks, according to the Hamas-run health ministry, making them the most deadly since the ceasefire began on January 19.

Search and rescue operations are under way amid the rubble of collapsed structures after the airstrikes.Credit: Anadolu via Getty Images

While much of the world’s attention has been focused on US President Donald Trump’s trade wars and his efforts to secure a ceasefire in Ukraine, the gossamer strands of the Gaza truce agreement have been unravelling in plain sight.

The scenario has played out exactly as Jonathan Conricus, a former international spokesman for the Israeli military, predicted during a visit to Australia last month. Conricus said the war would soon resume, with Israel implementing a siege on essential supplies entering Gaza. Soon after, Israel cut off food and energy supplies to the strip; now the aerial bombardments have begun again.

This moment was foreseeable because of the grim yet inescapable arithmetic underlining the three-stage ceasefire agreement. Stage one of the deal made sense for both sides: Hamas would free Israeli hostages it took captive in its monstrous October 7 attacks in exchange for the release of Palestinian prisoners and a pause to the fighting.

But with each hostage release, the deal came a step closer to disintegrating. Hamas has no rational incentive to release all the remaining living hostages: doing so would relinquish the leverage it holds over Israel. With 33 hostages released since January, Israel believes just 24 remain alive in Gaza.

As for Netanyahu, he wanted to secure the release of as many hostages upfront as possible and delay answering any of the thorny questions left to be resolved in the final stages of the deal. Stage two was supposed to establish a permanent ceasefire and a full Israeli withdrawal from Gaza. Step three would focus on the reconstruction of Gaza. Unsurprisingly, no meaningful progress has been made on these goals.

Netanyahu continues to insist that Hamas must be removed from power in Gaza, but has never explained how he will achieve this objective since the war began 17 months ago.

Hamas’ military capabilities are depleted and many of its top officials – such as the October 7 mastermind Yahya Sinwar – are dead. But the group remains strong, and has reportedly built back a fighting force of 25,000 people. During the war, Israeli troops repeatedly took control of important Gazan cities and withdrew, only to later return when Hamas regenerated and filled the power vacuum. This whack-a-mole approach was delivering increasingly limited military gains at a high cost to civilian lives.

Crucially, Netanyahu has refused to accept any governing role in Gaza for the Palestinian Authority, the more moderate faction that competes with Hamas and governs significant parts of the West Bank. This refusal makes no sense, except to advance Netanyahu’s goal of marginalising the Palestinian Authority as a negotiating partner for a two-state solution. In ruling out this option, he has made it easier for Hamas to retain control of Gaza.

Netanyahu believes that by resuming the war, he can force Hamas to negotiate from a position of weakness and secure the release of more Israeli hostages. But the original hole in the heart of his Gaza strategy – the lack of a realistic political plan for “the day after the war” – remains as glaring as ever.

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