A faint path to a ceasefire in Ukraine emerges but Trump’s support is fickle

London: Keir Starmer rose to his feet in the House of Commons with more purpose than at any time during his short and, until recently, rather directionless premiership.

“The future of Ukraine is vital for our national security,” the British prime minister said, to cheers across both sides of the chamber.

“Russia is a menace in our waters and our skies. Britain will lead from the front for the security of our continent, our country.”

Seizing the moment: British Prime Minister Keir Starmer.Credit: Getty Images

It has fallen to Starmer, just seven months into his reign at Downing Street, to try to hold together a rapidly fraying trans-Atlantic alliance long enough to find a potential breakthrough in the ongoing Ukraine-Russia conflict. It was not by choice but by necessity. He appears, thus far, to have seized the occasion.

After a frantic weekend of phone calls and bilateral meetings, Starmer and French President Emmanuel Macron could unveil their plans for a peace deal this week, drawing on momentum from their Lancaster House summit.

Once they have done so, they hope other European countries will join a “coalition of the willing” and commit to putting boots on the ground in Ukraine. Italy is expected to be among them.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and US President Donald Trump during their argument at the White House on Friday.Credit: Bloomberg

From the scant detail revealed, it would revolve around an initial truce aimed at stopping Russia’s brutal aerial bombardment of Ukrainian cities and halting their advances along the eastern front.

Macron has already signalled a proposal for a month-long ceasefire, limited to air, sea, and energy infrastructure, as a first step towards broader peace negotiations. This limited truce would be easier to monitor, given the immense challenges of overseeing a full ceasefire that could quickly collapse over an accidental skirmish on the frontlines.

While No. 10 distanced itself from Macron’s timeframe, Britain shares his view that an incremental, cautious approach is necessary. If the ceasefire holds, the next phase would see 30,000 peacekeeping troops, led by Britain and France, deployed in Ukraine, tasked with helping to enforce any agreement.

However, numerous obstacles remain, including the critical question of US involvement and how far US President Donald Trump is willing to go in supporting such a mission. Russia, too, has been clear that it is resolutely opposed to any peacekeeping forces in Ukraine.

The argument between Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in the Oval Office has sent relations between the two countries into a tailspin, with news breaking on Tuesday that Trump had suspended military aid to Ukraine in light of it, piling on the pressure for a deal with Russia.

Trump has now staked out a position that many European allies view as siding with Russia’s autocratic leader, Vladimir Putin, by dismissing the security concerns of a friendly country in need of Western help.

In another demoralising social media post on Monday, Trump said, “America will not put up with it for much longer” after Zelensky earlier suggested an end to the war was still “very, very far away”.

Writing on Truth Social, Trump said: “This is the worst statement that could have been made by Zelensky.”

The Ukrainian president has rejected calls for Ukraine to agree to an immediate ceasefire, saying it would be “failure for everyone” if a cessation of hostilities were not accompanied by detailed security guarantees.

The hope is that by acting as mediators, Starmer and Macron can ease the tensions between Zelensky and Trump. However, Starmer has also noted the dangers of flawed agreements with Putin, citing the failure of the Minsk accords on Ukraine in 2014 and 2015.

British officials stress that Zelensky needs to show more respect for Trump to restart dialogue, a move that could unlock essential support for a peace agreement.

Zelensky has indicated a willingness to engage with the US, including the possibility of signing a mineral rights deal, a key element in securing US backing for the peace process.

The most pressing issue for Starmer and Macron’s plan is the question of US security assurances. Trump has given no indication he is prepared to offer assistance to ensure any agreement holds.

While US Vice President J.D. Vance on Monday said “the very best security guarantee is to give Americans economic upside in the future of Ukraine”, the UK is clear that any deployment of troops in Ukraine would require a guarantee from the US, either in the form of air cover or satellite surveillance, to protect their forces in case of Russian retaliation.

While Starmer and Macron are optimistic that Trump could be convinced in private, the situation remains fluid, and the US’s stance will be crucial to the deal’s success.

However, the path to lasting peace remains fraught with uncertainty, and the proposed deal may only be the beginning of a far more complex process.

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