Alfred: Everything Queensland and NSW residents need to know

Alfred crossed the Moreton Bay islands at 1am AEST and, just after 6am, was downgraded to an ex-tropical cyclone. It is expected to hit the mainland coast, between Maroochydore and Bribie Island, on Saturday morning.

More than 4 million people are now in the firing line of the category 1 storm as it tracks from Noosa to Byron Bay and Ballina.

About 20,000 homes in Brisbane, 5000 on the Sunshine Coast and 6000 on the Gold Coast, are at risk of flooding from torrential rain and storm surges.

Residents in parts of NSW’s Northern Rivers region have been ordered to evacuate and more than 250,000 homes and businesses are without power across both states as Alfred edges closer to land.

When is Alfred expected to hit?

At 6.30am AEST, ex-tropical cyclone Alfred lies off Bribie Island and is moving slowly north. It is expected to cross the mainland coast between Maroochydore and Bribie Island during the morning.

Alfred hit the Moreton Bay islands at cyclone strength at 1am local time.

It might seem like good news that Alfred has been downgraded, and it is. But the category rating refers only to wind speeds. The bigger danger could come from the amount of rain it brings.

A warmer atmosphere means cyclones can hold more water than they used to. In the last 30-40 years, average humidity has increased 7 per cent alongside a degree of warming.

Brisbane and northern NSW will face more damaging winds, torrential rain, huge swells and power outages.

What is its predicted path?

Alfred was 65 kilometres north north-east of Brisbane and 40 kilometres south south-east of Maroochydore at 6.30am AEST, but the storm system is impacting the coast from about Coolangatta, on the Queensland-NSW border, to Ballina, in northern NSW.

Ex-tropical cyclone Alfred lies off Bribie Island and is moving slowly north. Gales are no longer occurring over coastal or island locations. It is expected to move towards and cross the mainland coast this morning, with winds weakening further as it moves inland.

Where is it expected to flood?

More than 20,000 properties in Brisbane could experience anything from mild inundation in their backyards to significant flooding in their homes.

The Brisbane suburbs at most risk include Brighton, Windsor, Ashgrove, Morningside, Rocklea, Coopers Plains, Carina, Sandgate, Hemmant, Lota, Tingalpa, Indooroopilly, Albion, Bardon and Wynnum West.

A flood watch is in place from the Mary River north of Brisbane, all the way down to the NSW border.

The weather bureau says the heaviest rainfall and the greatest potential for severe flash flooding will be south of where Alfred makes landfall.

“The winds around a cyclone travel in a clockwise direction, so the heaviest winds and strongest rainfall occurs on the southern flank of the system,” BOM senior meteorologist Kimba Wong says.

Nearly half a year’s worth of rain, around 400 millimetres, is expected to fall in Brisbane in just 24 hours.

More than 800 millimetres of rain is possible in Brisbane from late Wednesday, putting the south-east corner at risk of severe, potentially deadly flooding.

The heavy rain is likely to intensify Friday and continue into the weekend.

Parts of NSW’s north-east are forecast to be drenched with up to 800mm of rain from Wednesday to Saturday.

Residents in parts of NSW’s Northern Rivers region have been ordered to evacuate and thousands remain without power as the slow-moving tropical cyclone edges closer to land.

Almost 100 warnings, including evacuation warnings, are in place across regions in north-east NSW. See the Bureau of Meteorology’s warnings summary here.

Forecast accumulated rain over the seven days ending on Sunday, March 9.Credit: Weatherzone.com.au

Why is Alfred so low?

“There are a few contributing factors,” Wong says.

The water temperature in the southern Coral Sea is much warmer than usual – about 26 to 27 degrees – which is helping fuel Alfred.

Also, Alfred is largely being steered by an upper trough currently sitting over eastern Australia that is driving it south.

“What’s changing is that the upper trough is being replaced by an upper ridge, in kind of like a wave pattern. It’s that upper ridge that will change the direction of the cyclone and see it head west, towards the Queensland coast,” Wong says.

What has the Queensland government said?

Queensland Premier David Crisafulli told residents on Monday, “Now’s the time to prepare”, including having tinned food, making an emergency kit, gathering passports and clearing debris from properties.

He also urged residents to consider evacuating while it was still an option.

“The evacuation centres are a last resort,” Crisafulli told a news conference on Friday, adding that dozens of centres had been opened.

“Have an evacuation plan if you are in one of those areas,” he urged those in the cyclone’s path, advising them to secure their homes before evacuating.

“If in doubt, go and stay with friends and families.”

The Queensland government has asked telecommunications companies to increase network capacity to cope with an expected jump in internet usage and millions of messages throughout the emergency. It has also asked supermarkets to ensure shelves were regularly restocked amid a rush for bottled water and other essential items.

Residents have started fleeing their homes, schools have closed, public transport has been cancelled and two Black Hawk helicopters are on standby, as residents stay home and businesses close their doors.

Sandbagging stations have opened across the region, with hundreds of people queuing for hours at council and SES depots.

What has the NSW government said?

Those in Alfred’s firing line in NSW’s Northern Rivers were told to leave by 9pm on Thursday or risk not being able to evacuate.

The town of Lismore, which was devastated by record flooding in 2022, has been warned its CBD is at risk of flooding again, with residents urged to evacuate just after 9pm on Thursday. The town received more than 100 millimetres of rain on Thursday as residents hunkered down.

The Bureau of Meteorology said on Friday afternoon that Lismore would be likely to flood by Saturday morning, and the SES urged residents not to enter floodwaters.

“River level rises are occurring along the Wilsons River and Leycester Creek, and moderate flooding is expected at Lismore from Friday evening,” the Bureau said in a statement.

“The river is likely to exceed the major flood level around early Saturday morning. If rainfall continues to intensify overnight, river levels may reach near the height of the Lismore Levee (10.6 metres) late Saturday morning.”

The NSW State Emergency Service will deploy additional flood rescue and storm response staff to the Mid North Coast and Northern Rivers.

“We have also sent communication equipment, support personnel, aviation resources and specialised vehicles ahead of the forecasted impacts later this week,” NSW SES Assistant Commissioner Nicole Hogan said.

NSW Emergency Services Minister Jihad Dib assured locals the authorities are doing “everything we can” to prepare for the looming system.

“We’re cognisant of what the Northern Rivers have gone through and some of the trauma that they carry,” he said.

What is a category 1 cyclone?

Category1 cyclones can generate destructive wind gusts of up to 100km/h, which can bring down trees and power lines, topple caravans, tear boats from their moorings and damage houses.

Cyclone categories are all based on the wind strength, with 1 being the lowest and 5 being the highest. However, the categories do not take into account the severity of the rain or potential flooding.

“A category 1 cyclone can bring more rain and flooding than a fast-moving category 5 that rips through an area,” Wong says.

How long is Alfred expected to last?

“That’s the million-dollar question. It really will depend on the speed of the system and when it makes landfall and how quickly it moves inland,” Wong says.

Alfred may still pose a risk of heavy rainfall and flooding across the weekend.

There is also the potential for delayed flooding to occur early next week as water moves through river catchments.

“Once it moves further inland, it will likely weaken from a tropical cyclone into a tropical low; however, those systems can still bring torrential rain with them,” Wong says.

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