Fear of a Trump planet: Poll reveals Australia on edge after US result

Voters are bracing for economic and security shocks from the return of Donald Trump as United States president as 40 per cent say the outcome will be bad for Australia.

Trump’s emphatic victory is welcomed by 29 per cent of voters who believe it will be good for Australia, but there is a strong majority against taking sides with America in any conflict with China.

The exclusive findings also reveal a tightening in the contest to decide the federal election, with Opposition Leader Peter Dutton gaining a big boost on his personal performance and drawing level with Prime Minister Anthony Albanese on who is best to lead the country.

President-elect Donald Trump’s victory in the US election last week has unsettled Australian voters. Credit: The Age

The Resolve Political Monitor, conducted for this masthead by research company Resolve Strategic, shows voters increased their core support for the Coalition from 38 to 39 per cent, the highest level in the monitor since the last election.

Support for Labor was unchanged at 30 per cent – below the level the party gained at the election – and support for the Greens fell a single percentage point to 11 per cent.

Trump has pledged to impose tariffs on China and other countries to defend American jobs and has warned allies to spend more on their own defence while declaring he can end the Russian war against Ukraine in a single day.

A clear majority of Australians do not want to take sides if Trump heightens tensions with Chinese President Xi Jinping, with 57 per cent saying Australia should stay out of any conflict.

Voters were split on how to respond if Trump imposed tariffs on Australian exports, with 46 per cent saying the government should put tariffs on US exports in return. Another 13 per cent were against retaliation and 41 per cent were unsure.

Resolve director Jim Reed said the findings were in line with months of results showing that Australians preferred Democrat candidate Kamala Harris over Trump.

“The fact that more Australians believe this is a bad outcome for Australia undoubtedly reflects a dislike of Trump and the fact that our political spectrum is centred more to the left,” he said.

“But there are also misgivings, or at least uncertainties, about what Trump might do that will affect us on trade and defence.

“Australians clearly don’t want to abandon the US alliance on the strength of this new result, with few believing we should cancel the AUKUS order for submarines, for example.

“But they do think we should have the leeway to react to changes that don’t go our way, like imposing our own tariffs or seeking closer trade relationships elsewhere.”

Trump remains a divisive figure in Australia, with 54 per cent of Australian respondents saying they had a negative view of him and 26 per cent taking a positive view. This led to a “net likeability” rating of minus 29 per cent after rounding.

Harris, however, had a “net likeability” of 16 per cent among Australians after her defeat. While 25 per cent had a negative view of her, 41 per cent had a positive view.

The Resolve Political Monitor found that 35 per cent wanted to cement the AUKUS agreement with the US and Britain to buy nuclear-powered submarines, but 27 per cent said Australia should pause or halt the alliance.

It also found that 29 per cent wanted to continue plans to host US nuclear submarines in Australian naval bases, although 37 per cent said Australia should rethink this policy, which is also part of the AUKUS plan.

The survey found that 44 per cent were in favour of forming closer relations with other countries in the region, including China, in reaction to the Trump victory. Another 19 per cent disagreed with this, while 37 per cent were unsure.

Russian President Vladimir Putin praised Trump in recent days and held several talks with the former president after he lost power at the 2020 election, as revealed by investigative journalist Bob Woodward. Trump has claimed he could end the war in Ukraine in 24 hours, leading to conjecture he would reduce support for Ukraine and its president, Volodymyr Zelensky.

But 53 per cent of Australian voters said Australia should continue to support Ukraine if the US withdraws its support. Another 19 per cent disagreed and 29 per cent were undecided.

The Resolve Political Monitor surveyed 1621 people from Wednesday to Sunday, producing results with a margin of error of 2.4 per cent. This means all changes in the primary vote were within the margin of error. Questions about the US election were asked after Trump’s victory became clear.

In one of the biggest gains for Dutton, the number of voters who thought he was doing a good job rose from 40 to 45 per cent over the past month. The number of voters who thought he was doing a poor job fell from 41 to 39 per cent. As a result, his net performance rating climbed to 5 per cent, his strongest result in the Resolve Political Monitor.

Albanese had a net performance rating of minus 14 per cent in the latest survey. While the number of voters who thought he was doing a good job rose from 35 to 38 per cent, this was not enough to give him a positive net rating.

“Dutton is making some underlying gains that are not yet translating to vote,” said Reed.

“Both his preferred PM and net performance ratings are at new high points, and he’s certainly now viewed as stronger, more principled and competent in our analysis.

“Voters still think Albanese is a nice guy, and I rarely see anyone display any anger towards him. Instead, it’s like that most cutting remark made by parents – it’s not that they’re angry, just disappointed. It’s the word that comes up most often. They were expecting something different.”

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